If you haven’t seen the results of Graham’s breakdown of his development metric, you should absolutely check it out. He did some pretty cool data work and applied a development scale to a recruits rating. As it turns out, Kirby can develop.
The Development Quotient— Graham Coffey (@DawgOutWest) May 4, 2022
Every draft, Twitter is filled with takes on what college football teams develop well. This is a new metric that looks at which teams develop their talent most effectively. By looking at the average star ratings of every player drafted from 2019-2022 pic.twitter.com/OIY2FvjTWg
I was able to help with some of that data, and because I am a nerd, I continued to play with the info I gathered. Here is what went into the below chart. 54,000 recruits from the 2010 to the 2022 classes and their 247 Sports Composite Rating. 3,300 Draft Picks from the 2009 to 2022 NFL Drafts.
For this breakdown, I have filtered out recruits and focused on the 3, 4, and 5 star recruits. from teams that had more than 10 ranked recruits. From that pool, 9.4% of these players are drafted into the NFL.
- 57% of 5 Stars
- 19% of 4 Stars
- 6% of 3 Stars
Then I have broken down each team’s percentage of drafted recruits by star ranking and and total percent drafted. Also, I have ranked each’s team’s win percentage over the 2010-2019 season. The usual suspects atop college football are putting high numbers in the NFL and also winning at elite levels.
No surprise at the top. Alabama and OSU are top 2 in both percentage of players drafted and winning percentage. Not far behind are LSU, Clemson. Oklahoma, Oregon, Stanford are outside the top 10 in players being drafted, but are 4th, 7th, and 8th in winning percentage. And look at Wisconsin, tied with Ole Miss and just over the NCAA Average of 9% and 5th in winning percentage over these recruiting classes.
Not everyone is overachieving by these stats. Georgia is 4th best at putting guys in the league, and lagging at 10th best winning percentage. (this only covers up to 2020 season - this will improve as ensuing classes become NFL Draft eligible.
But, woo weee, Notre Dame, Penn, State, Florida State, and Michigan are good at getting guys drafted (ranking 7-10) but all are outside the top 15 in win percentage. And So Cal? USC is 12th in NFL Draft and 19th in winning, but UCLA? 15th and 48th!!!
We are officially in offseason/twitter wars.... use this data to drag your best friend’s team