Last night Dawg Sports Live finally drilled down on the film from the National Championship Game. Obviously, there is a lot to go over and this show did the offense and next episode will go through the defense.
One little nugget that Graham pointed out was a 3rd and 14 from the Alabama 39 yard line. Kearis Jackson catches 9 yard pass. Graham correctly points out this play is “unsuccessful” per analytics but an extremely Important “football” play moving the FG attempt up 10 yards
Here is a great example how what an X and O analyst sees as a good play and how analytics chart it as the same. yes, this was an “unsuccessful” per the success rate formula, but here is where EPA show the value of it statistically speaking.
EPA is a value based on the result of play based on the resulting play’s down distance and field position. The 3rd and 14 play has a starting play expectancy of points added as 1.556. and incompletion and a 4th and 14 from 39 would have a expectancy of .679.
So, take what would have been the the 4th and 14 expectancy and subtract the 3rd and 14 (.679-1.556= -0.876)
With the completion the resulting 4th and 5 the resulting expectancy of points would was 1.608 (1.608-1.556=0.052). Positive EPA Play The difference of the two results is .928 - almost a full point. Theoretically speaking, a point of the ensuing field goal could be attributed to Bennett and Jackson’s “unsuccessful” play.
EPA is a tough number to grasp for some, but adds more context than a binary success rate formula. Here is our @DawgSports_Live explainer video on our data we track and share
And another that looks at two drives -both TDs - but how EPA can shed light on EPA as means to describe offensive efficiency