If you have followed my stats for any time at all, I often use a Net Yards Per Play as a key metric to show a team’s overall efficiency. This stat has tracked well as teams that make the College Football Playoff and teams with a higher Net YPP win at a high rate in the playoff.
Last week on Dawg Sports Live, Graham and I put out a lot of stats and picks. I rolled out my attempt at an opponent adjustment Net Yards Per Play which factors in a team’s talent composite and their opponents talent composite along with the offensive and defensive yards per play.
On the last @DawgSports_Live - we did a lot of stats and picks. I showed @DawgOutWest my attempt at an opponent adjustedNet YPP. My top 10— DawgStats (@Dawg_Stats) September 19, 2021
Well - this list went 9-1 (UF) 7-3 ATS (UGA UK OSU)
2 upset road wins (MSU and FSU) pic.twitter.com/CMAPktU9bR
This was last week’s top ten in this metric. The teams here went 9-1 straight up with Florida’s loss to Alabama the only defeat. It went 7-3 against the spread. UGA, Kentucky, and Ohio State failing to cover the spread. Interestingly, Michigan State and Fresno State won outright as road underdogs. Graham was very very high on these other Bulldogs Out West over the Bruins.
Well, here is where that metrics leaves us going into Week 4.