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Dawg Stats is Making a Score Prediction

All season you, some of you more than others, have put up with a attempt to look at the season through advanced stats. For that, I say thank you. I love my home here on Dawg Sports. This is not my last post of the season, but the last one before the SEC Championship Game. For this one I am setting aside some of that an looking at actual points which I wrote about earlier in week.

If we think of successful plays and how they contribute to the actual points score and allowed you get a sense of scoring efficiency. Georgia leads all of football efficiency allowing .35 points per successful play allowed on defense and is second in Power 5+ (AAC) scoring 1.27 points per successful play on offense. Let's dig down at look at this stat for SEC play.

Georgia again shows their offensive efficiency scoring 1.2 points per successful play and actually increases their number of successful plays to 33 per game from 30 per game versus all opponents. Now let’s look at what the SEC looks like from a defensive perspective.

Georgia again flexes their defensive stats here. The Bulldogs are allowing

  • Fewest yards per successful play
  • fewest successful plays
  • fewest points
  • fewest points per successful play..... by a lot

Alabama runs 35 successful plays a game and Georgia is allowing 21 a game. I expect that the Tide will have 25ish successful plays on offense and the UGA defense points per willl regress to .8 per which comes to 20 points.

Georgia will have slightly more successful plays on offense than the 27 that Alabama has allowed in SEC Play. I expect 30ish successful plays and will regress from 1.2 per to .9 per (slightly better than Alabama’s .92) which comes to 27 points.

Official @dawg_stats prediction: Georgia 27 Alabama 20