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The Football Analytics Show and Dawg_Stats Meetup to Preview Orange Bowl

Ed Feng, host of “The Football Analytics Show” and owner of The Power Rank asked me to come on his podcast to preview the Orange Bowl. Ed’s site provides both NFL and College Football Analytics with projections to aid in betting and making pool picks. Ed lives in Ann Arbor and is Michigan fan so it was really insightful to not only get his professional take, but also get his take as a Michigan fan.

In the episode, we go over the key points and matchups between Michigan and Georgia. He had a very interesting counter to the pressure stats for Bennett and McNamara. In the game, he expects Bennett to “regress” when facing pressure and actually play better verse the Michigan pass rush. Also, feels that McNamara is likely to regress under the pressure that Georgia is expected to bring. How about that? On first glance this stat looks like a decided Michigan advantage, but Feng sees this a neutral or even a UGA edge.

Regress to mean? In this case, Ed Feng sees a Bennett regression as a positive

In that same discussion, which may reinforce Ed’s point, both QBs have played well against the blitz. While Bennett has played poorly with defenders in his face, when blitz is picked up his numbers are solid as are McNamara.

As I prepped the stats for the next “Dawg Sports Live” and organized the receiver stats, this stat jumped out. Georgia is hauling in 63% of contested targets. Michigan is only completing 32% of contested passes. This is probably a WR stat and QB stat, but Georgia should have an advantage at the skill positions and perimeter,