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Bud Davis is UF Grad and works with the folks at CFB Data. He shares his stats and graphs and Twitter and he and I wanted to something for the game. Here are some of the highlights for those that don’t wade into the Twitter - and kuddos for you who don’t.
WLOCP Advanced Stats Graphical Preview
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 26, 2021
UF needs to pull this game out of the trenches
OFF
High Stuff Rt = don't try to run
AR/EJ need to air it out
UGA pass rush is surprisingly avg
DEF
Lock down Brock Bowers
Limit the explosive runs
Make Bennett throw to WRs pic.twitter.com/aBSnXbnmSl
Florida is leading the country in rushing behind the 3 headed monster of Jones, Richardson, and Davis. Here are the @SEC_StatCat concepts for the Gator Rushing attack averaging 6+ YPC pic.twitter.com/v9vq2Q3vqp
— DawgStats (@Dawg_Stats) October 27, 2021
Against SEC offenses, it’s a league-best 1.73 (same for their 1.27 before contact clip)
— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 27, 2021
Smart's run defense is built to stop a lot of what Mullen likes to do. Even the upper quartile box barely is negative for most concepts.
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 27, 2021
I don't expect Florida to be able to simply zone or perimeter run in this one. pic.twitter.com/s3KuxaXty8
Florida does have to make something work, and it's pick your poison against UGA.
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 27, 2021
UGA has done exceptionally good vs QBs:
-Nix: 10 att, -16 yd
-Jeffferson: 8 att, 5 yd
Personally, this Option stood out. You just don't see many runs like this vs UGA even w/ a penalty for WR hold pic.twitter.com/ypsJaFsqEU
Even with UGA’s prowess vs outside runs? Florida is capable to run Pin/Pull and Stretches but have only called 3 all year. Most options and OZ Reads and work away from their receivers opting to attack space
— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 27, 2021
The Conversation pivots to the UF passing offense. As mentioned on Dawg Sport Live, Mullen has gone from 70/30 pass-run to 60/40 run-pass. Still, the Gators have means and players to move the ball through the air
Wheels (mostly thru Switches) helped Florida last year in this matchup. So far this year, the Gators are 5/14 — in terms of success — targeting non-Mesh concepts with wheel routes.
— SEC StatCat (@SEC_StatCat) October 27, 2021
UGA of course has been fantastic on those tries to date: 10/12, 338 yds, 5 TDs, 1 INT https://t.co/ncw1yS2fvT
there were concerns after the South Carolina game but yards and success has been pretty contained https://t.co/9QGeozShnb pic.twitter.com/uwxGA4AQgp
— DawgStats (@Dawg_Stats) October 27, 2021
SEC Passing EPA and Explosiveness pic.twitter.com/e7Fc4zZ8Vv
— DawgStats (@Dawg_Stats) October 27, 2021
Florida like to spread the ball horizontally w/ short throws & then take deep shots. The first part should be easy for UGA to handle, the deeper shots might be a bit more difficult
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 27, 2021
Worth noting the high cmp% & low EPA at the 10-20yd depth: that's where EJ/AR throw INTs pic.twitter.com/nVtiug0i0q
One specific play that Mullen has really developed w/ Richardson & Jones is the TE/RB POP Pass. Will be interesting to see how Kirby handles this
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 27, 2021
Below is the QB-run version w/ Counter. But note the TE action holding the LBhttps://t.co/r4Od6yEVhv
Then if you stick w/ the RB & QB, it opens it up for the TE Seam. I really love this play. pic.twitter.com/WcswwTXGZk
— Bud Davis (@JBudDavis) October 27, 2021
Bud does a great job and one of the many highlights wading into this neighborhood is learning and sharing ways to look at the game through stats. See, Gator Twitter isn't ALL bad..