Last week we correctly predicted that the TCU-Baylor game would be close. If you watched the game, you know that Baylor scored 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter to avoid the upset and win by 3. We also picked USC +3, which would have been a great pick given the 28-26 final score in favor of the Trojans. However, as tide96 pointed out in the comments, the men from Troy were actually favored by 3 points when we picked the game. Oops. We have to ignore that pick altogether, unfortunately, but we're still at a respectable (if unspectacular) 6-4 against the spread in our national picks.
We're going back out west for this week's National Game of Interest: No. 14 Kansas State at No. 11 Oklahoma (-10.5)
The pick: Kansas State +10.5
Why you should care: Frankly, No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Florida State (-12) is more interesting, being a match-up of two top-5 teams, but we all know the Seminoles are going to beat the Irish by at least 2 touchdowns (bonus pick). Wildcats-Sooners is the next most interesting game and the only one worth talking about.
Rationale: Bill Snyder's Wildcats have lost 8 of 10 games against Bob Stoops's Sooners. However, Big Game Bob's boys struggled against a bad Texas team last week after TCU proved that Oklahoma could be beaten the week before. Kansas State's only loss came to a very good Auburn team, and they've won every other contest this season by at least 3 scores. The numbers back up the eyeball test here: Kansas State has scored more points and allowed fewer points than Oklahoma, and the only basic per-play statistic in which the Sooners outperform the Wildcats is offensive rushing yards per play. But the Wildcats boast a top 10 rushing defense. It's tempting to pick them outright, but we'll play it safe and take the points.