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SEC Game of Interest (Week 2)

Last year we learned that picking games against the spread is really, really hard. This year we're going to change course a bit. Even though we're changing the name of the piece, please Don't Bet On It!

This is apt.
This is apt.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Last week we picked LSU to beat TCU by at least 4 points... and we were actually right! We also told you to look out for Western Kentucky, who beat Kentucky. But that wasn't an actual pick, so we'll just take credit for LSU. If you're keeping track at home, we also learned that Vegas knows exactly what it's doing: the over/under on Bama-VT was 45.5. The point total was exactly 45.

This week, the rest of the league continues to take it easy while we play another top-10 team. Five of the twelve SEC games this week don't even have point spreads. But this week's SEC Game of Interest does: Florida (-3) at Miami (o/u 49).

The pick: Miami (+3)

Why you care: We're looking ahead to the Cocktail Party and trying to figure out whether the Gators actually have a pulse after a string of offseason injuries and arrests.

Rationale: Florida is still a mess on offense. They barely managed to score 24 points against Toledo. (That's a MAC team, fyi.) The announcers said that Gator offensive coordinator Brent Pease had more than 80 plays installed for the opener. That's a whole lot of sound and fury for 24 points against a mediocre team. Miami's defense hasn't been great in years, but they should be able to halt Florida in their tracks by focusing on stopping running back Mack Brown (or will the Gators replace last week's offensive MVP with a now-healthy Matt Jones?). The Hurricanes also return eleven starters on an offense that really hit its stride in the second half of last year, so they might be able to score some points. Plus, I think we all know how tough it can be to take on a decent ACC team at home. Sigh.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking, but Florida's anemic offense just won't be able to keep up with someone this year. The Hurricanes might just be that team. What do you think?