I have chronicled before Aaron Murray's place in both the UGA and SEC record books after his sophomore and junior years. Entering his senior year, there are a few career stats which he is projected to own in both. I have listed those below, predicted his final total, and have predicted in which game (AND QUARTER!) he will break each of those records.
Before we get to the predictions, an explanation of my methodology:
First, I focused solely on career totals. Season totals would be easy enough to predict since I would just take his career total and divide by three, but the stats everyone care about at this point are career totals.
Second, I only focused on those records which are absolute numbers; no Average Yards Per Play - Career type predictions were made since that would just be taking his current average and assuming he continues.
Third, I make three predictions of his final tallies (CHEATER!). The first is based on his per season average. That's simple. Take his three year career totals, divide by three, and add that number onto his current totals. The second is based on his per game average while assuming we have a 13 game season; that takes his current career total, divide by 41, multiply that number by 13, then add that onto his current numbers. The third is based on his per game average while assuming we have a 14 game season; that's the same as the 13 game total but multiplying by 14 instead of 13. I do not have the knowledge of how to adjust based on defensive rankings, so I'm going with averages.
On to the tables!
UGA Career Records
Category | AM's Total | Record | Final Number - Season Avg | Final Number - 13 Games | Final Number - 14 Games | Record Breaking Game |
Passing Attempts | 1131 (3rd) | 1440 (Greene) | 1508 | 1490 | 1517 | Georgia Tech - 1st Quarter |
Passing Completions | 696 (3rd) | 849 (Greene) | 928 | 916 | 934 | Auburn - 1st Quarter |
Passing Yards | 10,091 (3rd) | 11,528 (Greene) | 13,455 | 13,291 | 13,537 | Missouri - 4th Quarter |
Total Offensive Plays | 1364 (3rd) | 1644 (Greene) | 1819 | 1796 | 1830 | Appalachian State - 2nd Quarter |
Total Offensive Yardage | 10,293 (3rd) | 11,270 (Greene) | 13,724 | 13,557 | 13,808 | LSU - 4th Quarter |
SEC Career Records
Category | AM's Total | Record | Final Number - Season Avg | Final Number - 13 Games | Final Number - 14 Games | Record Breaking Game |
Passing Attempts | 1131 (19th) | 1514 (Jared Lorenzen) | 1508 | 1490 | 1517 | Bowl Game - 4th Quarter Only if we play 14 games |
Passing Completions | 696 (15th) | 895 (Chris Leak) | 928 | 916 | 934 | Georgia Tech - 4th Quarter |
Passing Yards | 10,091 (8th) | 11,528 (Greene) | 13,455 | 13,291 | 13,537 | Missouri - 4th Quarter |
Passing Touchdowns | 95 (2nd) | 114 (Danny Wuerffel) | 127 | 125 | 127 | Appalachian State - 3rd Quarter |
Total Offensive Plays | 1364 (Not Ranked) | 1793 (Jared Lorenzen) | 1819 | 1796 | 1830 | 13th Game - 4th Quarter |
Total Offensive Yardage | 10,293 (8th) | 12,232 (Tim Tebow) | 13,724 | 13,557 | 13,808 | Florida - 3rd Quarter |
Touchdown Responsibility | 104 (3rd) | 145 (Tim Tebow) | 139 | 137 | 140 | Won't break the record Will pass Wuerffel (122) in Florida - 2nd Quarter |
So there you have it. At the end of this season, Aaron Murray will own the SEC and UGA records in Career Passing Completions, Career Passing Yardage, and Career Touchdown Passes, Career Total Offense. He will also own the SEC Career Passing Attempts record if he plays in 14 games; he will get the UGA record without that. He will not pass Tim Tebow for the Career Touchdowns Responsibility (barring him averaging 3.23 TDs per game over a 13 game season, 3 TDs per game over a 14 game season), but he will pass Danny Wuerffel to take the #2 spot. The first SEC record he will own is the Career Passing Yardage stat, which he gets against Missouri late in the game.