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SEC Game of Interest (Week 10)

Will our knowledge of the terminology and mathematics behind wagering on sports help our record? Don't Bet On It!

Jen Bielema is really all Arkansas has going for it right now.
Jen Bielema is really all Arkansas has going for it right now.
Wesley Hitt

Regression has been hitting us pretty hard the last couple of weeks. After an 8-5 start we've gone 1-3 in our last two weeks' picks. Last week was particulary tough. Mizzou must have borrowed Mike Bobo for the bye week. They took a 17-0 lead into the half, and then went cripplingly conservative. We'll have to rebound from 9-8 this week.

We all know that this week's SEC Game of Interest is the Cocktail Party. Nothing else going on in the conference is remotely as interesting as two unranked 4-3 teams squaring off at a neutral site. (I'm not kidding, either, but be sure to internalize just how sad that is for the conference.) Tennessee at Mizzou is important, but we all know the Tigers are going to win. And Mississippi State doesn't stand a chance against South Carolina. So that really just leaves No. 11 Auburn (-8) at Arkansas.

The pick: Auburn -8

Why you should care: It's time to start getting worried about Auburn. They're 7-1 and beat Texas A&M in a shoot-out.

Rationale: Arkansas is bad. They have not yet won an SEC game under Bert, and they haven't beaten anyone since September 14th. They are dead-last in the conference is scoring offense, and they allow more yards per play than even our tackling-optional defense.

Auburn, on the other hand, leads the league in rushing yards per play. Two of the WarTiglesMen are besting Todd Gurley's 6.3 yards per carry (RB Corey Grant and RB Cameron Artis-Payne), Junior Tre Mason is averaging just over 94 yards per game, and QB Nick Marshall is doing more on the ground than Johnny Manziel. I doubt an Arkansas rush defense ranked 86th nationally is going to be able to slow them down.

Go Dawgs! Beat Florida!