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Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC (Week 6)

Dawg Sports picks this week's SEC match-ups against the spread.

US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

It took 5 weeks, but we're finally starting to figure things out. We went 2-1-1 with last week's picks. Degenerate gamblers will tell you that a push is a win, but that push would have been an actual win if the Gamecocks hadn't somnambulated through their first half against Kentucky. Oh well. Our record has now improved to 17-19-1 in our SEC picks. I'm feeling pretty confident about that we can get to .500 with this week's picks, which is a sure sign that you should heed our weekly disclaimer: Don't Bet On It!.

Arkansas (+10) at Auburn
It's hard to decide which has been more entertaining to watch: Arkansas's slow motion motorcycle accident of a season or 5-and-19 Gene's return to form in the absence of offensive wunderkind Gus Malzahn (not to mention the greatest mercenary of our era). It's not hard to discern what the biggest mismatch in this game is, though: a Razorback offense that airs it out nearly 40 times for more than 310 yards per game against a WarTiglesMen secondary coached by Willie "Two Thumbs" Martinez. While Arkansas's offense certainly isn't as fearsome as it was under Bobby Petrino, they haven't had too much trouble scoring points, outside of a disastrous game against Alabama. The defense has been the problem. But they ought to be able to contain Auburn by focusing on shutting down RB Ontario McCaleb because QB Kiehl Frazier (52.8% comp, 2 TDs, 7 INTs) isn't too much of a threat through the air. I'm building my home near Vesuvius and taking the Hogs.

No. 20 Mississippi State (-10.5) at Kentucky
Don't read anything into Kentucky's surprisingly game first half against South Carolina. The Ole Ball Coach and his charges have been looking ahead to this week's match-up against Georgia since last September. But last week's contest is instructive in one way: the Wildcats gave up 200 rushing yards. The Bizarro Bulldogs, who average more than 5 yards per carry (Cocky's only getting 4.3), should run wild.

No. 4 LSU at No. 10 Florida (+3)
I spent the better part of Sunday evening trying to rationalize how Florida is going to pull the upset this weekend. Then Travis told us that the Gators were going to win. That's enough for me. Let's take Florida plus 3 at home.

Vanderbilt at Missouri (-7)
I want to take the Commodores here. I really do. James Franklin is a jackwagon, but he's a pretty good coach. But here's the thing: Missouri has the home field advantage, played better against us, and beat an Arizona State team that leads the PAC-12 in scoring defense and is second only to Oregon in scoring offense on the west coast. Vanderbilt has looked bad on the road and, even worse, lost to a Big 10 team. I'm taking the Tigers we don't hate yet.

Texas A&M at Ole Miss (+11)
Texas A&M is going to win this game, but Swole Miss scored two TDs against Alabama. The only other team to accomplish that feat this year is Denard Robinson's Michigan squad. If you can score on the Tide, you can score on the Aggies. Let's go with the Rebel Black Bears plus the points at home.

Go Dawgs!