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Why It Matters That Georgia Schedules Games That Matter

You will not be shocked, I am sure, to learn that I am not a regular reader of Salon, so I am grateful to my SB Nation colleague at Carolina March for pointing me in the direction of someone called King Kaufman, who writes:

The top-25 teams play roughly 100 nonconference games, and they managed to schedule five against each other, one-tenth of what they could have scheduled.

TH finds fault with this, for two reasons. First of all, he questions Kaufman's ciphering:
The math is right, if a little misleading. After all, juxtaposing 100 (the number of nonconference scheduling oportunities [sic.]) with 5 (the number of games) is dirty pool - each game has two Top 25 teams, filling 10 of the 100 chances to play.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I believe Kaufman and TH are saying the same thing in two different ways. The Salon writer says the five games pitting top 25 teams represent "one-tenth of what they could have scheduled" and the North Carolina blogger replies that those five games are "filling 10 of the 100 chances to play." Isn't 10 out of 100 the same as one-tenth?

TH's larger quarrel, however, is with the system itself. He writes:

When one loss in the third week of the season can eliminate you from championship contention - but not necessarily the team down the road who was ranked higher in the preseason - you have a massive incentive not go out [sic.] and schedule a Top 25 team. No strength of schedule component in a math formula somewhere is going to change that, and with the costs this high, no one's going to take a chance.

Much like my preseason BlogPoll ballot, that is a defensible theory that has been slain by subsequent facts. The sea change in this respect occurred in 2005, when two cross-sectional marquee non-conference contests captured the attention of the nation on the days they were played.

I am referring, of course, to the Longhorns' trip to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes and the Trojans' trek to South Bend to clash with the Fighting Irish. The winners of those two contests, Texas and Southern California, used those victories to springboard undefeated regular seasons culminating in a classic Rose Bowl showdown for the national title. However, the losers of those two contests got credit for quality losses in tough games, enabling Notre Dame and Ohio State to square off in the Fiesta Bowl at season's end.

Good teams distinguish themselves by playing other good teams competitively. Wins in such outings are huge and losses are not necessarily fatal, as evidenced by the B.C.S. bowl invitations extended to the Buckeyes and the Irish. While teams continue to schedule more than their fair share of patsies, the steady upgrade in non-conference scheduling is clear.

To cite the example with which my readers and I are most familiar, Georgia has road trips upcoming to play Arizona State, Clemson, Colorado, Louisville, Oklahoma State, and Oregon. Damon Evans has attempted to arrange games with Cincinnati, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon State. The 'Dawgs are on the hunt for a top-tier out-of-conference opponent for 2011 and 2012.

There is a method to Georgia's madness, as we have seen this opening weekend. When a team's season-opening opponent is expected to provide nothing more than a glorified scrimmage in a paycheck game, the host squad often turns in a lackluster performance or worse.

The prospect of facing legitimate opposition in the campaign's first outing, however, lends focus over the summer to a team that knows it must be prepared to play its best game, at the risk of finding itself sitting at 0-1 come Labor Day.

Not only does soft scheduling become a risky proposition for a would-be national championship contender that must rely upon the strength of its slate in making its case, it also can contribute to inadequate preseason preparation by players who treat the initial contest of the autumn as a tune up for the ones that really count.

Consider, for instance, the fates of Mark Richt's first six squads:

  • The Bulldogs opened against Arkansas State in 2001, against Georgia Southern in 2004, and against Western Kentucky in 2006. In seasons in which the Red and Black began the fall facing opponents from the Sun Belt or from Division I-AA, Georgia went a combined 27-10 overall and 15-9 in conference play. The 'Dawgs did not represent the Eastern Division in the S.E.C. championship game in any of those three seasons and the Classic City Canines ended those campaigns with trips to the Music City, Outback, and Chick-fil-A Bowls, respectively.
  • By contrast, the Red and Black began the 2002 and 2003 seasons with games against longstanding rival Clemson and followed that up with a nationally-televised game against up-and-coming Boise State in 2005. Those three years culminated with ledgers of 34-7 overall and 21-6 in league play for the 'Dawgs, who made three appearances in the conference title tilt and captured a pair of S.E.C. crowns en route to two Sugar Bowl berths and a Capital One Bowl trip.
Obviously, there is no guarantee that a quality opening matchup necessarily will translate to a successful season. There is, however, a correlation and it is not difficult to explain how the increased intensity of spring and summer workouts could translate to causation. In the Mark Richt era, better opening opponents have meant better Bulldog teams.

We shall see whether the Bulldogs' 35-14 victory over Oklahoma State pays similar dividends this season. However, there is no mistaking the fact that the trend is for prominent programs like Georgia to arrange games with opponents closer to their own weight class, nor can there be any doubt that this is what is best for the sport.

Go 'Dawgs!

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beat OSU t-shirt says it all
all preseason the guys were wearing that t-shirt.  That captures attention and gets the guys ready to go for the season from week one.  How you play in week one definitely can set the tone for the rest of the year.  

imagine all the focus that a beat Ap State shirt would have created.  Not much.  Instead, the UM guys were all thinking about Oregon next week, or Ohio State in November, or another loss in the Rose Bowl.

For a good team, a tough schedule is the way to go.  For a crap team (ahem...Notre Dame), maybe scheduling a patsie is best.  Of course, you never know if you'll be good or bad whenyou make the schedule.

by SoccerDawg on Sep 3, 2007 9:21 AM EDT   0 recs

I agree with you however
I think you're missing a key point in the discussion.  When the UNC blogger says that 1 loss eliminates you from the national title run, he is correct.

However, there are only 6 to 8 teams each year that have a legit shot at playing for the national title. They are the only teams with an excuse for avoiding other "Ben Hur" type games where they might get upset and fall out of the Top 25.

The only way for the other 110+ teams in Div I to get INTO the national title discussion is by beating high quality teams.

PWD

by Paulwesterdawg on Sep 3, 2007 11:55 AM EDT   0 recs

Not on topic BUT...
Kyle

Have you heard from the guy at Maize n Brew?  His last post was on Friday.  Is he ok?  Afraid to come out or still drowing his sorrows?

by Blogger who came in from the cold on Sep 3, 2007 2:00 PM EDT   0 recs

After reading your comment . . .
. . . I sent Dave an e-mail and he replied this afternoon. All is well---or, at least, as well as can be---and he has broken radio silence.

Thanks, by the way, for representing Bulldog Nation well by leaving Dave a classy comment. When most everyone else was kicking the Michigan faithful while they were down, I was glad to see a loyal Georgia fan offering solace rather than sarcasm.

In victory, magnanimity; in defeat, defiance; in all things, class. Nice work. You do us proud.

by T Kyle King on Sep 4, 2007 7:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, but...
Going by the preseason top 25 is stupid.  That's just the opinion of a bunch of sportswriters or coaches of which teams are going to be the best this season, not which teams are actually the best.  A better exercise would be to look at all the BCS conference programs and see how many of their games are against each other.  This is a bit flawed, too, since, for example, this Saturday's game between Baylor and TCU ... well, which of those teams is really a BCS-level program?

I digress, but my point is basically that just because you aren't scheduling Top 25 teams doesn't mean that you're not playing a tough schedule.  There's a difference between playing Oklahoma State and, say, playing Arkansas State.  Neither is a Top 25 team, but one game is much tougher than the other.  (The fact that Georgia blew out OSU while Texas mailed it in against Arkansas State does not mean that ASU is a tougher opponent.)

by Tom on Sep 3, 2007 3:13 PM EDT   0 recs

That's a pretty ballsy OOC slate...
...you guys have there. I'm a big fan of scheduling intersectional games like those, and as a Buckeye fan I'm lucky enough to have the following matchups to look forward to in addition to the just-concluded home-and-home w/ Texas:
2008 @ USC
2009 USC
2010 Miami
2011 @ Miami
2012-3 home-and-home w/ Cal
2014-5 home-and-home w/ Virginia Tech
2016-7 home-and-home w/ Oklahoma

That stacks up against anybody's OOC scheduling, I think, and gives us Buckeyes - fans and players - a great challenge/opportunity/something fun to get up for and then watch instead of the otherwise MAC-tastic bunch of OOC games we normally play. As Kyle pointed out, a team that schedules games like this risks much, but even a loss - if the team acquits itself well - can end up being rewarded later that year, and further to the point where a team establishes itself as a contender for the following season.

by El Caballo de Sangre on Sep 3, 2007 8:56 PM EDT   0 recs

Michigan
I just hope now that Michigan lost and Notre Dame showed they could not play their way out of a wet paper bag if it was perforated and they were given a utility knife we won't have to hear any more about scheduling them. I am so sick of hearing we need to schedule Michigan or Notre Dame. Who cares!

by reipar on Sep 3, 2007 11:59 PM EDT   0 recs

I'd take a different view
I think you could also read the article to point out that the conference structure is another impediment to seeing top teams play one another. Absent the top 25 playing one another in their entirety, you end up trying to come up with methods to rank teams in differing populations. It's a beauty contest that's good for a laugh, but it doesn't have the cold clarity of win / loss record.

Whether or not you think this a bad thing depends on whether you'd rather see the traditional and glorious muddle of college football as played today, or a system that produces an overall champion from the top teams after they have played against one another - and only one another.

by DC Trojan on Sep 4, 2007 1:27 AM EDT   0 recs

How he picked the five?
There are 9 games that would almost qualify this week alone, or would have prior years:
Nebraska  @ Wake Forest
Miami @ Oklahoma
Boise St.  @ Washington
Oregon @ Michigan
BYU @ UCLA
TCU @ Texas
USF @ Auburn
Notre Dame @ Penn St.
Va Tech @ LSU

What about Georgia v. Georgia Tech?

He picks on Florida, but next year Florida plays Hawaii, Miami, @ FSU for 3 of their 4 ooc games.  Did he completely miss the OSU Texas games in 2005/6?

by winstongator on Sep 6, 2007 11:40 AM EDT   0 recs

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