Don't Bet On It: Around the S.E.C.
by T Kyle King
on Sep 24, 2007 7:13 PM EDT
in Football
Last weekend was a great weekend. Georgia won, Georgia Tech and Steve Spurrier both lost, Auburn and Florida both struggled with lesser opposition, my brother-in-law and I correctly answered the Aflac trivia question from the Michigan-Penn State game, and Dawg Sports is brimming with quality diaries. All, in short, is right with the world.
Except, of course, for my prognostications, which, as usual, stunk.
(Artist's rendering of my picks.)
Oh, all right, I did O.K. in my S.E.C. forecasts, posting a 5-1 record to improve my league ledger for the season thus far to 25-6, but I misread just about every game. I foresaw easy wins for the Plainsmen, the Gators, and the Bayou Bengals, as well as a victory for the Razorbacks. In reality, Florida led 27-24 after three quarters, L.S.U. led by a single touchdown until a fake field goal padded the Louisiana State lead, Auburn clung to a 21-20 halftime lead over New Mexico State, and Arkansas lost.
That should cement in your mind the certitude that I have no idea what the heck I'm talking about when it comes to college football, but, out of an abundance of caution, I still will issue my usual warning regarding the degree of credence you should lend to my predictions; namely: Don't Bet On It!
These are this week's S.E.C. games, excluding Georgia's upcoming home date with the Rebels, about which more anon:
Eastern Michigan at Vanderbilt: Last fall, you may recall, the Commodores opened the season with a road trip to Ann Arbor, where they lost to the Maize and Blue by a 27-7 final margin. This is the return game from Vandy's home-and-home deal with the Wolverines, who have rebounded nicely from a disastrous 0-2 start and who are venturing into the South for the first time since . . . hang on a minute. Eastern Michigan? Who the heck is Eastern Michigan? Isn't the Great Lake State more tall than wide, anyway? Why in the world are the directional state schools running left-to-right instead of top-to-bottom in the first place? There's no good reason why this school even exists, much less why it has a Division I-A football team, much less why its Division I-A football team is coming to play Vanderbilt. This whole thing is ridiculous; I'm picking the Commies just because I can locate Nashville on a map and Vandy at least has a legitimate justification for its existence.
The football teams from Eastern Michigan University have been known, in succession, as the Normalites, the Men From Ypsi, the Hurons, and the Eagles. With such a sequence of lame names, how is it that no one ever thought to call the team the E.M.U. Emu?
North Texas at Arkansas: Houston Nutt seems like he's walking an emotional tightrope between herky-jerky and just plain crazy even on his best day . . . and it's probably been three or four years since he's had anything that might have qualified as his best day. After enduring an offseason that even Cincinnati Bengals fans thought was harsh, Coach Nutt has seen late leads squandered in back-to-back losses to Alabama and Kentucky. By this point, Coach Nutt has to have been driven stark raving bonkers, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him standing on the sideline staring wild-eyed and unblinking into nothingness while rolling ball bearings around in his palm, muttering about strawberries and yellow dye markers, concocting harebrained conspiracy theories only slightly less half-baked than the ceaseless ludicrousness that has been life in the Arkansas program these last few months, and constantly asking a graduate assistant to check and re-check the Mean Green media guide to make sure he isn't facing a third straight team that used to be coached by Bear Bryant, whose ghost he claims has visited him and told him to off his uncle so he can ascend to the throne of Denmark. Fortunately, North Texas will pose no challenge for the Hogs, even if Coach Nutt decides at mid-week to turn over the play-calling duties to Chief Bromden, so Arkansas is a safe bet to win this one.
Louisiana State at Tulane: I think it's cute the way the Fighting Tigers continue to play their in-state rival, even though the Green Wave no longer competes in the same conference or at the same level as L.S.U. It reminds me of the way Georgia still plays Georgia Tech. Anyway, the Bayou Bengals are on autopilot at this point and this is nothing more than a dress rehearsal for the following Saturday's huge showdown with the defending national champion Gators. The Tigers can name their score in what will be an unmitigated whipping.
Sooner or later, the sheer unbridled dufusness of Les Miles is going to cost L.S.U. a football game . . . but it won't be against Tulane.
Florida Atlantic at Kentucky: The Wildcats have won nine of their last ten games. That can't be right. Can that be right? Let's see . . . Mississippi State, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe, Clemson, Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, Louisville, Arkansas . . . well, I'll be danged; that is right. I don't know what the heck Rich Brooks did during Kentucky's October 21 open date last year, but, since that time, his 'Cats have dropped only a 17-12 road game against Outback Bowl-bound Tennessee. Well, son of a gun. Who would've thought? Hey, I know better than to mess with a streak . . . I'm going with Kentucky to win this one, for sure.
Mississippi State at South Carolina: One of these teams took a licking from Louisiana State but upended a storied division rival on the road and won less than thoroughly impressive games over a Division I-AA opponent and a marginal Division I-A squad to run its record to 3-1. The other of these teams has a chicken for a mascot. The Gamecocks are smarting from their loss in Baton Rouge and they will face a short week leading up to their looming October 4 date with Kentucky in a key Thursday night Eastern Division matchup. Sylvester Croom has his squad playing with confidence and flying under the radar. The Gamecocks seldom have shown an ability to handle success and I think they're about to get caught napping by a Bulldog squad that is going to score an upset in Columbia.
Steve Spurrier, you are about to be Croomed.
Auburn at Florida: Oh, yeah, this is going to be a ballgame! An upset on the Plains was all that stood between the Gators and an undefeated 2006 season. The game is being played at The Swamp and the home team is apt to be fighting mad after performing poorly in Oxford last Saturday. The Tigers sandwiched losses to South Florida and Mississippi State between poor performances against Kansas State and New Mexico State. Tommy Tuberville's team has yet to play a road game this autumn. This one has all the earmarks---sorry, Tubs; it's just an expression---of a Gator beatdown.
Alabama v. Florida State: That Nick Saban is a shrewd one. He knew he would be facing Bobby Bowden one week after facing Mark Richt. He knew Coach Richt knows how to win on the road. He knew Coach Richt was a protégé of Coach Bowden. He therefore had to know that, if the Crimson Tide lost to the Bulldogs, there would be a phone call from Tallahassee to Athens seeking advice on how to beat 'Bama. So what did Coach Saban do? Yep . . . he arranged to have the Tide's showdown with the Seminoles take place in Jacksonville, Florida, the one venue in which Coach Richt has proven powerless to prevail. The Armani Bear craftily came up with a glowing green hunk of kryptonite to ward off any possibility of a second straight setback against a Mark Richt-prepared game plan and that sly strategy will serve Alabama well. I believe it is agreed by Georgia fans and Alabama fans alike that Nick Saban is a capable coach who is taking the Crimson Tide in the right direction and an overtime loss to one of the top coaches and arguably the top program in the Southeastern Conference does not change that fact. Coach Saban will stay the course, right the ship, and satisfy numerous other seafaring metaphors by the St. John's River when the Tide comes in and swamps the Seminoles.
Do you suppose Bobby Bowden keeps up with what Britney Spears is doing with her life by listening to eBay?
Those are my hopelessly nonsensical forecasts, to which you should attribute no validity whatsoever. By no means should you ascribe to my predictions sufficient credit to use them as a basis for wagering on the outcomes I have anticipated, so, whatever you do, please . . . Don't Bet On It!
Coming Soon: National Games of Interest. . . .
Go 'Dawgs!
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Man....
Oh, that's an actual emu?
Nevermind then. Carry on.
by CAJason80 on Sep 24, 2007 8:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Nice and subtle
by Hamp at HunkerDownDawg on Sep 25, 2007 8:35 AM EDT 0 recs
Poor performance?
I know you hate us, but we looked pretty good last week, albeit against pretty weak competition.
As far as this week goes, we have a chance but only if (lots of if's):
(a)we control play at the line
(b)we protect the ball
(c)Florida screws up in some way
(d)the Brandon Cox of 2005 shows up
Again, lots of ifs, but I will go ahead and make the prediction that we keep the score closer than UT did.
by ContrarianAUFan on Sep 25, 2007 4:47 PM EDT 0 recs
Yes, poor performance
The Aggies gained more first downs (21) than Auburn (19).
New Mexico State passers went a collective 30 for 46 for 259 aerial yards and the Aggies' average gain per pass (5.6 yards) was equal to Auburn's.
The visitors rolled up 379 yards of total offense and held the ball for 32 minutes of clock time.
The Aggies converted eight of their 17 third downs and held the Tigers to just five of 13 on third-down attempts.
Had it not been for those six New Mexico State turnovers, the Aggies very well might have won. As it stands, they gave the home team a halfway-decent scare in Jordan-Hare and gave the Auburn faithful real reason for concern.
I'm not gloating; if anything, I grow more concerned about the Plainsmen every day, because the trend in the Georgia-Auburn rivalry is clear: when one team clearly is superior to the other, especially if the better team is playing at home, that team is as likely as not to get blown out by an inferior squad in its own house.
Granted, last Saturday's performance was Auburn's most impressive outing of the season. That, though, is a reflection of how poorly the Plainsmen played against Kansas State, South Florida, and Mississippi State, not a testament to anything the Tigers did well against the Aggies.
by T Kyle King on
Sep 25, 2007 8:50 PM EDT
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For full disclosure...
The Plainsmen trailed at the midpoint of the second quarter and Auburn clung to a 21-20 lead at halftime.
The Aggies gained more first downs (21) than Auburn (19).
New Mexico State passers went a collective 30 for 46 for 259 aerial yards and the Aggies' average gain per pass (5.6 yards) was equal to Auburn's.
The visitors rolled up 379 yards of total offense and held the ball for 32 minutes of clock time.
The Aggies converted eight of their 17 third downs and held the Tigers to just five of 13 on third-down attempts.
I grouped these all together because they have the common thread of all being damning on the surface, but not telling the whole story. While the Aggies had 379 yards of total offense, they only had 124 after around the 10 minute mark in the 2nd quarter, pointing to good adjustments made by Auburn's defense. Auburn's DC, however, says that the D was making mistakes early in the game, and NMSU's success moving the football should be attributed more to the mistakes of Auburn's defense, rather than the Aggies' lack of success later in the game be attributed to adjustments Auburn's defense made. Take him at his word if you want- he DID play for Vince Dooley.
The stories of time of possession and first downs worked out similarly (although a bit less for the 1st downs)- The Aggies only held the ball a little over 17 minutes in the last 40+ minutes of gameplay (while holding it for 15 minutes of the first 20), and over 5 of the minutes in which the Aggies held the ball in the second half of the game came from a 4th quarter possession that netted a whopping 21 yards on 5 plays (Why were they were burning the clock like that down 48-20, is a mystery to me, unless they gave up). For 1st downs, 10 of the Aggies 21 came in the first 20 minutes of the game, 8 on two of their 3 scoring drives (their other TD came after recovering a fumble on the Auburn 25, on a one-play drive). Auburn's defenses in the past few years (even in 2004) have been known for giving up some yards, but, for the most part, being about as good of an example as there is of the "bend, but don't break" defensive philosophy, so sometimes we'll lose the First Down battle but win the game, especially when capitalizing off of turnovers as we did in this game, turnovers that led to short fields, ergo, fewer 1st downs for us (a 48 yard TD pass and a 67 yard TD run also contribute in that regard, as well).
As for the Aggie QB play, NM State runs a trigger happy, Texas Tech-like offense, an offense that is foreign to the SEC (at least since, Hal Mumme, NMSU's head coach, left KY). If you let a QB get comfortable in that kind of system, he can pick you apart.* I cannot recall the last time Auburn faced such an offense- it can be pesky, and will probably get some yards on pretty much anyone who is unfamiliar with it- they do average around 475 yards of offense a game, so it will be interesting to see how that number hold up as the year goes on, since we were the first team to play them that is even REMOTELY good. However, if Muschamp is to believed (and I will certainly give him the benefit of the doubt), much of the success of the Aggie passing game can be attributed more to Auburn's D making mistakes early, mistakes that seem to have been corrected later in the game. The completions and incompletetions of the Aggies follow a similar trend, as well.
Had it not been for those six New Mexico State turnovers, the Aggies very well might have won. As it stands, they gave the home team a halfway-decent scare in Jordan-Hare and gave the Auburn faithful real reason for concern.
Turnovers are tricky. For some, credit must be extended to the defense for forcing them or making a play (possibly like Wilhite's one-handed INT in this game), others are just a product of poor play (the fumbled exchange between Cox and Fanin in the South Florida game) or bad luck (Cox's pick-6 off of a dropped/tipped pass against Mississippi State), and some (if not most) are "hybrid." Therefore, it's hard to say what types of turnovers these were, since I actually didn't see the plays (as stated above).
As for the game beign a scare, it was for awhile, but if you take Muschamp at his word, the cause for alarm was an unwarranted, and the D's play in the second half seemed to suggest that.
I'm not gloating; if anything, I grow more concerned about the Plainsmen every day, because the trend in the Georgia-Auburn rivalry is clear: when one team clearly is superior to the other, especially if the better team is playing at home, that team is as likely as not to get blown out by an inferior squad in its own house.
To an extent, that may be the case, but in the most extreme cases of one team being better than the other in the recent past (2003, 2004 come to mind), the better team usually wins in a blowout, and (coincidentally?) at home. Last year was weird in that while we were a pretty good team (I'll take 11 wins most any day, especially with wins over the National champion and the team that finished #3 in the nation), we profited from both questionable calls and having the ball bounce our way, otherwise we probably would have won 7-9 games (Tuberville has mentioned this several times himself, and I agree). UGA last year, on the other hand, had young players in key positions, and clearly improved as the year went on (something that may be the case this year with us), so if you're looking at last year to help highlight the point you've made, I will be so bold as to say that a good bit of our success last year can be attributed to luck, and that the UGA team that beat us was not the same UGA team that lost to Vandy at home early in the year.
Granted, last Saturday's performance was Auburn's most impressive outing of the season. That, though, is a reflection of how poorly the Plainsmen played against Kansas State, South Florida, and Mississippi State, not a testament to anything the Tigers did well against the Aggies.
While yes, it was our most impressive performance thus far, and yes, we played quite poorly in our previous 3 games, the jump in the level of performance seems much greater than you suggest after a closer look.
*This is where it would be profitable to know what kinds of defensive schemes Auburn ran in this game- if we played it safe I'd feel better than if we were sending 5 or more on a pass rush every play.
(I apologize in advance for usage/syntax/html errors)
by ContrarianAUFan on
Sep 26, 2007 12:24 PM EDT
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Fair points on New Mexico State
Will Muschamp is a fine defensive coordinator and his word counts for a lot, but he didn't play for Vince Dooley. Coach Dooley stepped down as head coach following the 1988 season and Coach Muschamp was a Bulldog letterman from 1991 to 1994, during Ray Goff's tenure on the Sanford Stadium sideline.
At least since the "away field advantage" reached ludicrous proportions, Georgia and Auburn generally have played tight ballgame after tight ballgame; eight of the last 15 series meetings have been decided by margins of seven (1996 and 2001), six (1995), four (1992), three (2000 and 2002), one (2005), and zero (1994) points.
Three of those eight games have been tied at the end of regulation play; counting the two overtime games, five have been decided literally on the last play of the game, and that does not include the 2002 game that was decided on a fourth-down touchdown. Of the remaining seven games in that period, only four were decided by more than two touchdowns.
That said, there have been a trio of stunning upsets during the last decade or so:
- In 1997, Georgia came into the game at 7-1 and Auburn came into the game at 7-2, having lost to two teams (Florida and Mississippi State) that the 'Dawgs defeated handily. The Plainsmen won, 45-34, in a game in which the Bulldogs scored a late touchdown to make it look closer than it was.
- In 1999, Georgia came into the game at 6-2 and Auburn came into the game at 4-5. The Plainsmen won, 38-21, in a game in which the Bulldogs did not begin scoring until the game was well out of reach.
- In 2006, Georgia came into the game at 6-4 and Auburn came into the game at 9-1. The Bulldogs won, 37-15.
by T Kyle King on
Sep 26, 2007 6:33 PM EDT
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Oops...
Oh, 1999. My freshman year. We didn't beat anyone worth a shit at home, but managed to win in Athens and Death Valley (41-7).
One more kind of turnover, to continue what I had stated above- occasionally, you can also have games like ours against Tennessee in '04, when the coaches "see" something on film that can be easily exploited, and it results in a string of turnovers (I think Rosegreen had 4 INT's in that game).
by ContrarianAUFan on
Sep 27, 2007 6:36 AM EDT
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