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Will Georgia Be Able to Run the Ball Against Hawaii's Defense?

You already know that the Hawaii Warriors are a solid team on offense. It may surprise you to learn, however, that June Jones's squad also acquits itself fairly well defensively.

For instance, Georgia's Sugar Bowl opponent ranks second in the W.A.C. in rushing defense, permitting 131.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs and the Warriors each allow 3.4 yards per carry.

This does not mean, however, that the Red and Black should be fearful of Hawaii's ability to stop the run. According to College Football Statistics, the Warriors' first eight games were against a pair of Division I-AA squads and the teams ranked 51st (Idaho), 55th (Louisiana Tech), 75th (U.N.L.V.), 94th (Utah State), 109th (New Mexico State), and 112th (San Jose State) in rushing offense. When two-thirds of your opponents can't crack the top 50 in the country at running the ball, it's really easy to put up good numbers against the run.

I think we all know where this is leading.

The last four weeks have told a different tale, however. Fresno State, for instance, ranks 16th in rushing offense, and, despite trailing 31-7 in the second quarter in Honolulu, the West Coast Bulldogs still managed to gain 182 yards on 44 carries for an average of 4.1 yards per rush against the Warriors. F.S.U.'s Clifton Smith gained 105 yards on 17 touches.

The following week, in Reno, Hawaii faced a Nevada squad ranked 11th in rushing offense. The Wolf Pack racked up 216 yards on 48 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per rush. Nevada's Luke Lippincott ran the ball 25 times, tallying 140 yards in the process.

Next up for the Warriors were the Broncos. Boise State is the nation's 29th-best rushing team and the visitors from the Gem State outgained Hawaii on the ground as Jeremy Avery averaged 5.0 yards per carry and Ian Johnson broke a 50-yard run on the Warrior D.

I'm starting to sense a pattern here.

Finally, and most recently, Georgia's Sugar Bowl opponent squared off with the country's 17th-ranked rushing offense, that fielded by Washington. The Huskies torched the Warriors, running the ball 50 times for 261 yards. U-Dub averaged 5.2 yards per carry and Louis Rankin carried the ball 21 times for 145 yards.

These results are far from aberrational. The last time Hawaii visited the Pelican State, to face another Bulldog squad in Ruston on September 8, Derek Dooley's Louisiana Tech squad rushed for 223 yards against the Warriors. On another of U.H.'s treks to the mainland this autumn, the outright W.A.C. champion gave up 4.8 yards per carry and 143 rushing yards to U.N.L.V. despite leaping out to a 42-7 lead on the Runnin' Rebels.

The lesson of those figures is clear: Hawaii is effective against the run only when facing teams that don't run the ball well. Georgia ranks 36th in the N.C.A.A. in rushing offense and boasts a thousand-yard rusher in Knowshon Moreno. Because Hawaii is capable of scoring quickly, one of the most effective weapons in the Bulldogs' offensive arsenal will be the ability to grind it out with the ground game, controlling the clock, keeping Colt Brennan on the sideline, and letting Georgia's talented tailbacks lead the Classic City Canines on long marches to the end zone.

Go 'Dawgs!

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Boise State did outgain UH in rushing...
but they finished with only 101 yards rushing, which was significantly lower than their 192.2 ypg on the ground.  

To be fair, Hawaii did a really good job of bottling them up, especially BSU's own 1000-yd rusher, Ian Johnson.  He finished with 86 yds (his ypg avg was 85.8) on 22 carries, but that included a single rush of 50 yds at the beginning of the game.  Other than that, he was 21 carries for 36 yards.

by mcboyt on Dec 5, 2007 10:13 AM EST reply actions  

O.K., you got me on that one
There was, admittedly, a certain selectivity in my use of statistics from that game (and that game alone). Two points, however, bear making:
  1. The game was played in Honolulu. This is significant because the Warriors, like the Broncos, appear to enjoy a substantial home field advantage. Matters might well have been very different in Boise, just as I expect they will be in New Orleans.
  2. As evidenced by the effectiveness of Boise State's No. 2 tailback, the Hawaii defense clearly keyed in on Ian Johnson, who is the best running back the Warrior D has seen so far this season. Provided that Kregg Lumpkin is healthy for the Sugar Bowl, Georgia will field three top-caliber tailbacks in the Crescent City, which will make it difficult for the Warriors to focus the entirety of their attention on shutting down one player. If they try to do that, it will open up the play-action passing game and the improved performance of Matthew Stafford and the Georgia receiving corps will pay big dividends. Ordinarily, I'm not an advocate of "tailback by committee," but this is one game in which a three-headed running back rotation could serve Georgia very well, indeed.
Also, I haven't gone back and looked at the quarter-by-quarter numbers for the Boise State-Hawaii game, but, since that game turned into a shootout, I'd be willing to bet that the Broncos threw the ball a good deal more in the second half and got away from the running game in an effort to catch up to the home team. Given Georgia's outstanding defensive play in the second halves of the Bulldogs' last several games, I would be willing to bet the Red and Black will be able to contain the Warriors after intermission, which should allow the 'Dawgs to run the offense they want to run rather than having to heave it up there on every down.

All that said, you make a good point about Hawaii's performance against Boise State. Hopefully, the circumstances will be sufficiently different in the Superdome that the Classic City Canines will be able to run on the Aloha State Adventurers the way so many other teams have been able to do.

by T Kyle King on Dec 5, 2007 11:51 AM EST up reply actions  

Your point is well taken...
I believe your central point is correct, that is, that Hawaii's run defense numbers are bolstered when they have played weaker competition (which has been often this fall), and that they enjoy a fairly significant home field advantage, which is mitigated when coming to the mainland.

Your point about Boise passing a lot late was also correct.  Hawaii took the lead (32-27) at the 3:29 mark of the 3rd quarter, and padded their lead with a TD about two minutes later (39-27).  After surrendering the lead, for the last 18 1/2 minutes, Boise State panicked, running 17 plays (not counting punts), 14 of which were pass attempts.  Before that point in the game, they had rushed 28 times, compared to 25 passing plays.  http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=273270062&period=0

But Hawaii did hold Boise State's backup tailback below his normal production.  He ran for 40 against Hawaii, compared to his ypg of 50.25.  They also held him to 5.0 per carry, a number that was lower than his per carry avg against everyone except Nevada (3.7) and Washington (2.5). So, they did manage to key on the other tailback pretty well. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=197223
  Having more than one weapon at tailback, though, is a nice luxury, and I trust that the Dawgs will be able to move the ball well using them, as well as Stafford using the play-action.  Most of the teams Hawaii has played have not had strong rushing games, so the play-action might not have been a weapon that they could go to.  Stafford is getting better and better at it, so that bodes well, I think.

by mcboyt on Dec 5, 2007 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey!
That's FIRST TEAM ALL-SEC running back Knowshon Moreno, thank you very much!

by randomterrace on Dec 5, 2007 1:55 PM EST reply actions  

The key
is not falling behind big, early.

As alluded to hear, I imagine as Hawaii got up on the weaker competition at the beginning and middle of the season, opponents were forced to pass more in order to try and catch up which would affect rushing stats.

We need to get up on them first, so we can continue to play the balanced offensive game that has worked for us so well. So hopefully they will get to "Know" Moreno and see what Brown can do for us.

by fotodog on Dec 5, 2007 9:53 PM EST reply actions  

i couldn't agree more...
please dear God CMR don't make this the 06 Sugar Bowl all over again.  I don't feel like being the laughing stock of the world again after we let an admittedly lesser team run all over us out of the box.  That does not need to happen again.  Just win baby.  And make it big.

by loran smith on Dec 5, 2007 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

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