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Who's No. 3?

The tremors set off by last night's upset in Piscataway (which I correctly predicted, by the way) continue to reverberate throughout the blogosphere, as the conversation has shifted from questions concerning the Big East's quality and legitimacy as a B.C.S. conference to wondering whether Rutgers is for real.

Does this guy seem the least bit fake to you?

Let's get one issue out of the way from the outset, though. If you are hoping that chaos will hurt the B.C.S. and pave the way to a playoff in Division I-A college football, you are hoping in vain. Far from being harmed by controversy over the national championship game and who should be in it, the B.C.S. is helped by discord, because controversy generates interest, interest generates viewership, and viewership generates revenue.

While Sunday Morning Quarterback undoubtedly is correct that Rutgers (due chiefly to the long history of losing at major college football's oldest program) won't be in the national championship game even if the Scarlet Knights run the table, the more important question is whether the State University of New Jersey should be playing for the national title if the Knights go undefeated.

I have asked you to let me know your answer to that question, but, from my perspective, I believe Rutgers has put itself forcefully and legitimately into contention for the No. 1 ranking at season's end.

First of all, the Knights are good. They aren't flashy, but they play fundamentally sound football in the old school mold, combining rock-ribbed defense with a punishing running game, led by a quarterback with limited physical skills who seems to do nothing well except win consistently and guided by a defensive coach whose fiery intensity gets the most out of his players.

Has that combination ever produced a legitimate national champion? Well, there was that one time. . . .

(Photograph from The Tennessean.)

All right, the 1980 Georgia team is one example, but what about strength of schedule? You may recall that, heading into the 1981 Sugar Bowl, some pundits wondered whether the 'Dawgs had played anyone of note. The Bulldog faithful, recalling the Yellow Jackets' tie with then-No. 1 Notre Dame, retorted: "We beat Georgia Tech, for one."

If the Buckeyes (who won a national championship in 2002 with a team not altogether unlike the 2006 Scarlet Knights) run the table and ask that question of the Rutgers faithful in Glendale, the partisans of the State University of New Jersey will be able to point to their 33-0 win over Illinois, a team that put serious scares into Wisconsin and, yes, even Ohio State. The Fighting Illini also went on the road and beat Michigan State by three points in East Lansing . . . a feat identical to that accomplished by media darling Notre Dame.

We all understand that the transitive property is not universally applicable in college football; if Team A beat Team B and Team B beat Team C, that does not necessarily mean that Team C won't beat Team A later in the year. However, the opponents appearing on particular teams' slates provide some basis for comparison. While these comparisons are of dubious predictive value, they are the essence of resume ranking.

That being the case, shouldn't an undefeated Rutgers squad get considerable credit for Thursday evening's win? West Virginia, the undefeated Big East frontrunner, was ranked No. 3. Upon beating the previously unbeaten Mountaineers at home, Louisville, the undefeated Big East frontrunner, replaced W.V.U. at No. 3. Upon beating the previously unbeaten Cardinals at home, shouldn't Rutgers, as the new undefeated Big East frontrunner, replace U. of L. at No. 3?

An affirmative answer would avoid cognitive dissonance, to be sure, but a reasonable negative response might sound something like this: "Not if the next teams down on the list had better resumes." Fair enough, then; let us look at the next teams down on the list.

If you wouldn't mind, this gentleman would like to stand behind you and look over your shoulder while you're counting the votes for the top 25, please.

The current BlogPoll has Texas ranked fourth, Florida ranked fifth, Auburn ranked sixth, California ranked seventh, Southern California ranked eighth, Arkansas ranked ninth, and Notre Dame ranked tenth. The Longhorns, the Gators, the Tigers, the Golden Bears, the Trojans, the Razorbacks, and the Fighting Irish each have one loss. (11th-ranked L.S.U. has two losses, which is why I have used the outer edge of the top 10 as the cutoff point.)

The aforementioned contenders' best wins were against Oklahoma, Louisiana State, Florida, Oregon, Arkansas, Auburn, and (arguably) Georgia Tech, respectively. The highest ranking for the Sooners was No. 15; for the Bayou Bengals, No. 5 (for two weeks); for the Gators, No. 2; for the Ducks, No. 10; for the Razorbacks, No. 9; for the Plainsmen, No. 2 (for three weeks); and, for the Yellow Jackets, No. 13.

The Scarlet Knights beat third-ranked Louisville, which gives undefeated Rutgers a higher-quality "best win" than that possessed by once-beaten Cal, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas, or U.S.C. Provided that one or more of them runs the table, the Bears, the Gators, the Irish, the 'Horns, and the Trojans shouldn't even be in the conversation with the State University of New Jersey, as they cannot match Rutgers, either in wins and losses or in signature victories.

Another factor in the Scarlet Knights' favor is that no alumnae of the Universities of California, Florida, Notre Dame, Texas, or Southern California have ever been voted the best-looking woman on the face of the planet.

That leaves Arkansas and Auburn as the only once-beaten teams with a serious argument for getting the nod over an undefeated Rutgers. If everyone wins out, the Tigers might have the best claim to being the nation's top one-loss team, but the War Eagle will not have won its own conference championship or even represented its division in the league title tilt. After the obvious injustice of including Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 (which was confirmed on the field in the designated national championship game in each of those years), it is hard to believe anyone could justify promoting Auburn over an undefeated B.C.S. conference champion.

The Hogs, therefore, are the only team with a legitimate claim to oust the Scarlet Knights from the national championship game and Arkansas's argument would have some substance to it, as the team would have to win out over L.S.U. in the regular season and over Florida in the S.E.C. championship game. Even so, though, could you really rationalize giving a spot in the national championship game to a team that lost 50-14 at home?

There is still a lot of football yet to be played and an undefeated Rutgers squad is by no means a foregone conclusion. If it comes to pass, though, the State University of New Jersey should receive its second consecutive invitation to play in a bowl in Arizona.

Go 'Dawgs!

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Poll
I like the poll (Who should play the winner of OSU/Mich) but shouldnt a choice be the winner of the SEC?  Someone between Auburn, Fla, and Ark will lose.  Whoever wins out in the SEC should play in Arizona.  The big 10 is weak like Ukraine.  USC did beat Ark, but enough is enough with the pretty boys.  The SEC isnt so bad this year and whoever wins out played a slew of the good ones.

by ssidedawg1 on Nov 10, 2006 3:20 PM EST   0 recs

Perhaps I should have allowed for that . . .
. . . but I didn't because the premise was, "Even though not all of these teams can win out, which would be the most deserving if it did?"

In other words, would a one-loss S.E.C. champion Florida team be better or worse than a one-loss S.E.C. champion Arkansas team? Would the Gators' case be affected if U.F. met Arkansas or Auburn in the conference title game?

I'm looking for the team that would have the best claim if it won out, but the space constraints of the poll limited my ability to express that effectively. Your criticism is a valid one and I regret the omission.

by T Kyle King on Nov 10, 2006 8:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well
Just because Louisville was ranked #3 does not mean that they deserved to be. Any more than it means Oregon deserved a win against Oklahoma (which is hurting their ranking significantly).  

We just don't know how much quality to assign to each win quite yet. We won't have a perfect picture by the end of the season (we never do; each team only plays twelve others). But we'll have more data than we do now.

Texas' victory over Oklahoma may be worthless in two weeks, should the Sooners drop two in a row. Rutgers victory over Louisville may lose a good deal of its luster were the Cardinals to hit the skids down the stretch. The same goes for any team, and any victory.

by HornsFan on Nov 10, 2006 3:39 PM EST   0 recs

All true, of course . . .
. . . but there's a limit to how much credit I'm willing to give Oklahoma regarding the Oregon game. Yes, the Pac-10 officials blew the call---multiple calls, actually---but, even after all that, the Sooners still had the lead and the chance at a game-saving stop, which Bob Stoops's heralded defense failed to execute.

Given your Longhorn loyalties, though, I have a question for you . . . not to be a smart-aleck, but because it might be relevant. Is there an argument to be made that Texas has a stronger case for inclusion in the national championship game if Michigan beats Ohio State than if Ohio State beats Michigan?

After all, the Buckeyes beat the 'Horns already this season. Shouldn't someone else be given a shot? Does being the defending national champion entitle Texas to be given two chances in a de facto double-elimination game? If we're going to have a rematch in Glendale, wouldn't a once-beaten Michigan team whose only loss was to Ohio State and whose best win was against Notre Dame have a better case for a second chance than a once-beaten Texas team whose only loss was to Ohio State and whose best win was against Oklahoma?

I'm not advocating a position, but I'd be interested to know how you'd address that argument if it were to arise.

by T Kyle King on Nov 10, 2006 7:59 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Rutgers in National Title Game
would be a good idea because it would ensure about 5 more weeks of lots of Kristin Davis pictures.

by Blogger who came in from the cold on Nov 10, 2006 4:31 PM EST   0 recs

Kristin!
More Rutgers football isnt such a bad thing if we continue to see Kristin pics.  A BCS Title game berth deserves a nude pic though.  ;-)

Is the omission of a review of the Auburn/Georgia game an oversight or a why bother?

AU, don't sleep on the Dawgs!  Or they will bite... I hope.

by ssidedawg1 on Nov 10, 2006 5:30 PM EST   0 recs

Um....
I think Rutgers still has to play WVU, so let's hold our horses. Just because the 'Neers can't play defense, doesn't mean they can't win a shootout with the Knights.

Regards, please keep the Kristin Davis coming. I am constantly amazed by the abundance of photos of her. To be sure, she is a worthy subject to be photoed, but really, does she just have some one that follows her daily and says, "Wait, Kristin. You look great in that outfit in that position, let me snap off a few." "But Marc, you said that 2 minutes ago when I was getting out of the car," she replies. Marc answers, "And I also was telling the truth then."
Okay, before this turns into a romance novel or Penthouse letters...

We can enjoy the debate for now, but things should smooth out in the next few weeks. However, you have to like the position Auburn is in. An early season lose to a team that has climbed up the polls and then might lose to Florida (a team Auburn beat). Seriously, if you are in the Big 12, SEC or ACC, the team you want to be is either the Conference Champion or the team that was the runner-up to playing in the Conference Championship; you don't want to be the team that just got saddled with a loss right as bowls are being handed out.

by fotodog on Nov 10, 2006 7:28 PM EST   0 recs

You're absolutely right about West Virginia
I tried to allude to that ("There is still a lot of football yet to be played and an undefeated Rutgers squad is by no means a foregone conclusion"), but maybe I didn't state it strongly enough.

The Scarlet Knights are nowhere close to being a mortal lock to beat the Mountaineers and a W.V.U. win over Rutgers wouldn't be surprising, even thought (at this point) it would be an upset.

You're right that it will all come out in the wash, but it's worth wondering what ought to happen if certain events transpire. Even if the Knights remain unbeaten, they won't play for the national title, but it ought to be asked if they should.

by T Kyle King on Nov 10, 2006 7:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Oops!
That should be "though," not "thought." My bad.

by T Kyle King on Nov 10, 2006 7:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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