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Aaron Murray and the Record Books, Part 3 - When Will He Break Them?

USA TODAY Sports

I have chronicled before Aaron Murray's place in both the UGA and SEC record books after his sophomore and junior years. Entering his senior year, there are a few career stats which he is projected to own in both. I have listed those below, predicted his final total, and have predicted in which game (AND QUARTER!) he will break each of those records.

Before we get to the predictions, an explanation of my methodology:

First, I focused solely on career totals. Season totals would be easy enough to predict since I would just take his career total and divide by three, but the stats everyone care about at this point are career totals.

Second, I only focused on those records which are absolute numbers; no Average Yards Per Play - Career type predictions were made since that would just be taking his current average and assuming he continues.

Third, I make three predictions of his final tallies (CHEATER!). The first is based on his per season average. That's simple. Take his three year career totals, divide by three, and add that number onto his current totals. The second is based on his per game average while assuming we have a 13 game season; that takes his current career total, divide by 41, multiply that number by 13, then add that onto his current numbers. The third is based on his per game average while assuming we have a 14 game season; that's the same as the 13 game total but multiplying by 14 instead of 13. I do not have the knowledge of how to adjust based on defensive rankings, so I'm going with averages.

On to the tables!

UGA Career Records

Category AM's Total Record Final Number - Season Avg Final Number - 13 Games Final Number - 14 Games Record Breaking Game
Passing Attempts 1131 (3rd) 1440 (Greene) 1508 1490 1517 Georgia Tech - 1st Quarter
Passing Completions 696 (3rd) 849 (Greene) 928 916 934 Auburn - 1st Quarter
Passing Yards 10,091 (3rd) 11,528 (Greene) 13,455 13,291 13,537 Missouri - 4th Quarter
Total Offensive Plays 1364 (3rd) 1644 (Greene) 1819 1796 1830 Appalachian State - 2nd Quarter
Total Offensive Yardage 10,293 (3rd) 11,270 (Greene) 13,724 13,557 13,808 LSU - 4th Quarter

SEC Career Records

Category AM's Total Record Final Number - Season Avg Final Number - 13 Games Final Number - 14 Games Record Breaking Game
Passing Attempts 1131 (19th) 1514 (Jared Lorenzen) 1508 1490 1517 Bowl Game - 4th Quarter
Only if we play 14 games
Passing Completions 696 (15th) 895 (Chris Leak) 928 916 934 Georgia Tech - 4th Quarter
Passing Yards 10,091 (8th) 11,528 (Greene) 13,455 13,291 13,537 Missouri - 4th Quarter
Passing Touchdowns 95 (2nd) 114 (Danny Wuerffel) 127 125 127 Appalachian State - 3rd Quarter
Total Offensive Plays 1364 (Not Ranked) 1793 (Jared Lorenzen) 1819 1796 1830 13th Game - 4th Quarter
Total Offensive Yardage 10,293 (8th) 12,232 (Tim Tebow) 13,724 13,557 13,808 Florida - 3rd Quarter
Touchdown Responsibility 104 (3rd) 145 (Tim Tebow) 139 137 140 Won't break the record
Will pass Wuerffel (122) in Florida - 2nd Quarter

So there you have it. At the end of this season, Aaron Murray will own the SEC and UGA records in Career Passing Completions, Career Passing Yardage, and Career Touchdown Passes, Career Total Offense. He will also own the SEC Career Passing Attempts record if he plays in 14 games; he will get the UGA record without that. He will not pass Tim Tebow for the Career Touchdowns Responsibility (barring him averaging 3.23 TDs per game over a 13 game season, 3 TDs per game over a 14 game season), but he will pass Danny Wuerffel to take the #2 spot. The first SEC record he will own is the Career Passing Yardage stat, which he gets against Missouri late in the game.

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