Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC (Week 5)

Jamie Rhodes-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

Dawg Sports surveys our SEC coevals' contests for the upcoming weekend and picks each game against the spread.

Last week's picks marked the second straight week of coin-flipping, with us posting a 4-4 record that brought our season-long ledger to 15-18. I would feel worse about this but for two reasons: First, this is sort of how sports betting is supposed to work; if anyone made money doing it, no one would have a real job. Second, you're a liar if you're claiming you saw the result of LSU-Auburn coming. Oh well. I'm still right more often than the NFL replacement refs. Is that reason for optimism regarding this week's picks? Don't Bet On It!

Missouri (+2.5) at UCF
Mizzou (2-2) is learning the hard way that the SEC is all it's cracked up to be. They've lost their two initial SEC forays, but they've also handled both of their out-of-conference contests, including a win over a solid Arizona State squad. The Knights (2-1) have similarly struggled against their sole opponent from one of the Big Six conferences, having lost 31-16 to Ohio State. Georgia fans know better than to take a win over UCF for granted, but I don't think Mizzou is nearly as bad as their conference record indicates. Let's take the Tigers and the points.

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-13.5)
When I first saw this line, I thought, "There's no way that Arkansas is a 2 TD favorite over the Aggies!" It turns out I was right. Based on pure talent alone, I'm tempted to take the Hogs (1-3) to cover... but then again, they lost to Rutgers at home last week. Texas A&M (2-1) is a statistically superior foe in every respect save rushing defense, and the Razorbacks barely let their best back tote the rock. You've got to like the Aggies to cover the spread at home.

No. 6 South Carolina (-21) at Kentucky
The only question I have about this game is the margin by which the Wildcats (1-3) would have to lose for Joker Philips to be fired on the spot. I think it's far more than 3 TDs, so I'm taking the 'Cocks (4-0) to cover on the road.

Towson at NO. 3 LSU (N/A)
The Bayou Bengals (4-0) looked awful against the Auburn Tiglesmen (1-3) on the road, but they'll handle Coloniel Athletic Association Tigers at home.

Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-31)
We all know the Tide (4-0) are going to roll. The question is whether they'll keep starters in to preserve more than a 31 point lead. Their average margin of victory is 36.75 points, with the lowest margin being a 27 point victory over Michigan in the Dome in the opener. The RebelBlackBears (3-1) might actually be a tougher opponent than Michigan, but Saban hasn't been shy about piling on the points for the home crowd. Let's take the Tide to cover.

Go Dawgs!

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