Don't Bet On It!: Around the SEC (Week 4)

Sandra Bullock can't help you this season, Coach.

Now that most teams have 3 games under their belts, we're finally starting to get a feel for each of them. Accordingly, our picks are starting to improve... slowly. last week I went 5-5 against the spread in our SEC picks, which doesn't sound great, but it's a marked improvement over the two straight losing weeks preceding it. This week, we dig deeper into the meat of the regular season, with fewer cupcake games and more real contests. Will we recover from our 11-14 start? Don't Bet On It!

Ole Miss (-15) at Tulane
Last Week: The Rebel Black Bears (2-1) got manhandled by Texas 66-31 in a game that wasn't even as close as the score made it look. The Green Wave (0-2) took a week off to regroup.
The Lean: Ole Miss isn't great, but Tulane is one of the worst teams against the country. Ole Miss's Bo Wallace should have a field day against Tulane's porous pass defense. Take Ole Miss and the points.

Kentucky at No. 14 Florida (-24.5)
Last Week: The Wildcats (1-2) fell for a trick play in overtime to lose to the Hilltoppers. The Gators (3-0) rushed for 336 yards in their eighth consecutive victory over the Vawls.
The Lean: Kentucky last beat Florida in 1986. They also just lost to a Sun Belt team. The Gators will crush them.

Missouri (+10) at No. 7 South Carolina
Last Week: The SEC's newest Tigers (2-1) turned 4 turnovers into a 4-point victory of Arizona State. The Gamecocks (3-0) won the game against UAB but lost QB Connor Shaw in the second quarter after he reinjured his throwing shoulder.
The Lean: Missouri's James Franklin is a game-time decision, and so is Connor Shaw. With so much offensive uncertainty, you have to take the underdog Tigers and the points.

Florida Atlantic at No. 1 Alabama (-50)
Last Week: You konw what happened to the Owls. Alabama (3-0) demolished Arkansas (1-2) 52-0 on the road.
The Lean: Are you going to bet against Alabama? Me either.

No. 2 LSU (-19) at Auburn
Last Week: The Bayou Bengals (3-0) pulled it together after some early struggles to rout Idaho 63-14. It took an extra period, but Auburn (1-2) managed to do what Arkansas couldn't: beat Louisiana-Monroe.
The Lean: I'm sick of picking Auburn and losing bets, and LSU hasn't done me wrong yet. I'm all in on LSU.

Rutgers (+5) at Arkansas
Last Week: The Scarlet Knights (3-0) handled South Florida in last week's National Game of Disinterest. Johnelle Smith proved that he's not even a competent substitute teacher in the Razorbacks' (1-2) ugly loss to the Tahd.
The Lean: The Scarlet Knights have beaten a decent team in the Bulls, Arkansas is free-falling, and betting on Johnelle is a sucker move.

South Carolina State at Texas A&M (N/A)
Last Week: The Palmetto State Bulldogs got shut out by Rich Rodriguez's West Coast Wildcats. The Aggies (2-1) cruised to an easy 48-3 victory over SMU.
The Lean: The Aggies will win big. Too bad there's not a spread for me to take.

South Alabama at No. 23 Mississippi State (-34.5)
Last Week: South Alabama lost to NC State. The Bizarro Bulldogs let Troy hang around but eventually pulled out a sloppy 30-24 victory.
The Lean: The Bizarro Bulldogs are scoring 38 points per game, and South Alabama ranks 54th nationally in scoring defense and 118th nationally in scoring offense. I'm taking more cowbell.

Akron at Tennessee (-35)
Last Week: The Zips pulled out the first victory of the season against Morgan State. Precious started packing his bags after losing to Florida despite leading at intermission (or at least he should have started packing).
The Lean: Against the Gators, Tennessee showed that they're still struggling to find a running game. The Zips have a top 20 passing defense and can put up some points; they've only really been losing because teams can run all over them. I don't think Akron will win, but I think they'll keep it close. Go Zips!

Go Dawgs!

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