The old proverb is "Lucky in cards, unlucky in love," but I can't help thinking that's what's going on here. South Carolina broke our hearts last weekend, but we went 4-1 in our SEC picks, finally bringing our ledger for the year over .500. We're now at 21-20-1, and we finally have a feel for all the teams around the conference. It's possible that we know more than Vegas now, but Don't Bet On It!
Auburn at Ole Miss (-4.5)
Out of 8 major statistical categories -- scoring offense and defense, rushing offense and defense, passing offense and defense, and total offense and defense -- Auburn is superior to Ole Miss in two: passing defense and scoring defense. Auburn has shown a propensity for neither passing nor scoring. A trip to Hugh Freeze's home won't chill Gene Chizik's seat back on the Plains. Ole Miss wins big.
No. 1 Alabama (-21.5) at Mizzou
Georgia's been allowing 24.2 points per game. Mizzou scored 20 on Georgia in a loss. South Carolina's been allowing 10.5 point per game. Mizzou scored 10 on South Carolina in a loss. Vanderbilt has been allowing 20.6 points per game. Mizzou scored 15 points on Vandy in a loss. Alabama's been allowing 7 points per game. Mizzou may not score a single point on Alabama in this impending loss. Take the Tide.
No. 4 Florida (-7.5) at Vanderbilt
Florida has won four consecutive conference contests by an average of 16.5 points. Even if you take out the blow-out of Kentucky, they're winning by 9.3 points per game. Moreover, LSU is a better team than Vanderbilt. Florida beat the Bayou Bengals by more than 7.5 points, and they ought to be able to score more points on the Commodores. Let's take Florida to cover on the road.
Kentucky at Arkansas (-17)
Kentucky is the only team in the SEC worse than Auburn, and, just like Auburn, Kentucky won't be able to take advantage of the Hogs' porous pass defense. Arkansas beat Auburn by 21 on the road, so they ought to be able to beat the Wildcats by at least 17 at home.
No. 3 South Carolina (+2.5) at No. 9 LSU
I have no idea what games Vegas was watching last weekend, but it's bananas that LSU is favored here. The Bayou Bengals aren't doing anything other than rushing, and Cocky has the second best rushing defense in the conference (behind Alabama), including holding Gurshall to 76 yards on 25 carries last week. /weeps /picks South Carolina plus 2.5 against a seriously overrated LSU squad /weeps more
Tennessee (+3) at No. 19 Mississippi State
Mississippi State is overvalued. Statistically they have a slightly stronger defense than Georgia, but that's only because they've played Jackson State, Auburn, Troy, South Alabama, and Kentucky. Their offense hasn't exactly been tearing it up against that competition either. The Bizarro Bulldogs are in the middle of the SEC in most statistical categories, but they rank in the bottom third on pass defense. Whatever else you think about the Vols, you know they can put up some points through the air. Let's take Tennessee plus the points on the road.
No. 22 Texas A&M (-8) at No. 23 Louisiana Tech
The line opened with the Aggies as a 6 point favorite and has already gone to 8. Let's jump on this before it gets out of hand. The Aggies win big on the road.