SEC Bowl Projections Week 7 (or when things go as expected, expectations don't change)

I’m not convinced that these projections are right. But I am convinced they are better than Jerry Palm at CBS Sports (who has us playing Louisville in the Sugar Bowl) or Brad Edwards at ESPN (who has the SEC sending two teams to BCS bowls and filling all tie-ins with eligible teams). Maybe I am being too pessimistic about Arkansas, Ole Miss and Vandy. Heck, two of those teams might find six wins. But be wary of anyone who tells you all three of those teams will win at least six games. Because they still play each other, it would take one of them having some big upsets.

There was very little change in the SEC this week. As Kyle noted in his Power Poll (which I don’t know how to link to, but surely you’ve already read) the LSU/South Carolina game actually changes little because each team can still win out for a division title and play in Atlanta for at least one championship.

I would also add that any projection that involves a Big 12 team or an ACC team is barely anything more than a random shot in the dark taken by a drunk, blindfolded monkey aiming a dart at a spinning globe with a map of the states that have a Big 12 team or an ACC team (some of which may or may not be the same states – who can keep up.)

BCS Championship Game – Alabama vs. Oregon

I feel like I ought to put some sort of Notre Dame caveat here to conform to national media standards. Here’s the caveat: Notre Dame is going to lose at least one game.

Sugar Bowl – South Carolina vs. Oklahoma

I know what some of you are saying - "but they lost to the LSU team that Florida beat. And they have to play Florida in the Swamp." For those reasons I came thiiiiiiiiisssss close to putting Florida here. But I still think the Gamecocks are the more physical and fundamentally-sound football team.

Capital One Bowl – Florida vs. Nebraska

See: Bowl, Sugar

Cotton Bowl – LSU vs. Kansas State

LSU still controls its own destiny in the West. And it will right up until it loses to Bama.

Outback Bowl – Georgia vs. Wisconsin

The off week may have helped our poll standings, but it did nothing for our bowl projection.

Chick-fil-A Bowl – Texas A&M vs. Virginia Tech

While I’m sure the fan bases for each school are still thinking about upsetting one of the big boys and stealing their way into the SEC championship game, the more realistic scenario is that the Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M game will settle third place in the West and determine the pecking order for Chick-fil-A Bowl and Gator Bowl selection.

Gator Bowl – Mississippi State vs. Northwestern

See: Bowl, Chick-fil-A

Liberty Bowl - Tennessee vs. UCF

The Volunteers are in the middle of a brutal stretch of their schedule for which I am sure they didn’t volunteer. But all they will need to do to land in Memphis is win three out of their last four against Troy, Missouri, Vandy, and Kentucky. Don’t be surprised if they win them all.

Music City Bowl – Ole Miss vs. NC State

Beating Auburn isn’t exactly a statement game this year, but the Running Rebel Black Bears looked good enough that I now expect them to beat Vandy in the game that will basically determine who heads to Nashville to play in a low-level bowl game and enjoy some high-level guitar picking.

Compass Bowl – No SEC team eligible (well maybe Arkansas, but I doubt it)

The Independence Bowl – No SEC team eligible (almost no shot at all)

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