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The Pessimist's Guide to the Georgia Bulldogs' 2011 football season.
by vineyarddawg on Jul 27, 2011 10:17 AM EDT
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PrintWarning: If you're a "happy person," or if you "don't entertain daily thoughts about the possible annihilation of your team by a 1-AA opponent," then you might not be too happy with the content of this post. It's called the "pessimist's guide" for a reason.
Kyle is doing a yeoman's job of working his way through the Dawgs' upcoming 2011 football season game by game, providing insightful in-depth analysis, and I salute him for it. I'm just a tl;dr kind of guy, however*, and to be honest, I'm not that excited about reading deep analysis of a season that might very easily turn out just as badly (if not worse) than the 2010 season did. We have just as many holes as the 2010 team did, we have almost all of the same coaches, too. Why should we expect a significant improvement this year?
On the other hand, many DawgSports contributors have highlighted, both in comments, FanPosts, and FanShots, many potential bits of good news that could serve to heighten some fans' sense of optimism for the upcoming season. (Not mine, though, of course.)
I have no doubt that the optimists in the crowd will try to convince you that the following projections are unjustifiably dour and dismal. In response, however, I would like to refer you to last year's Pessimist's Guide, in which I predicted a 7-5 season for the Dawgs, missing the actual final mark for the regular season only because I made the foolish call that Georgia would probably not literally fumble the Colorado game away. (Pause for RAEG...)
So, without further ado, I give you my Pessimist's Guide to the 2011 Football Season(TM).
Game 1: vs. Boise State Broncos @ Georgia Dome
Why the Dawgs will win: Boise State is coming into a game against an SEC team in a very unfamiliar role as the favorite, which means they're ripe for a letdown. Also, if there's one thing Mark Richt teams have excelled at over the years, it's coming in as an underdog and surprising everyone with a big upset. Georgia probably has more talent than Boise, and with a whole offseason to prepare, Todd Grantham's defense will be ready for the Broncos' talented, balanced attack.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Georgia might have more talent than Boise, but the Broncos know how to use theirs far better than we do. Boise State will have far more confidence coming into this game, and most of the players on this team have first-hand experience with going into a hostile environment and defeating a team from an AQ BCS conference. Georgia will also be relying heavily on a true freshman at RB and also a Nose Guard who has never previously played a snap of major college football. And that's in addition to Bacarri Rambo Fudge and Jakar Hamilton in the secondary.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Tossup/Loss
Game 2: vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Why the Dawgs will win: I honestly can't think of a good reason, unless we can figure out a way to stop the SEC's best rusher and one of the SEC's best wide receivers before week 2.
Why the Dawgs will lose: South Carolina are the defending SEC East champions, so they've broken through the glass ceiling that had also existed above Georgia's head prior to 2002. Add to that the fact that Steve Spurrier owns the Georgia Bulldogs when he has a good team, and this just doesn't look promising for the good guys.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Loss
At this point, after an 0-2 start, this picture seems appropriate. (Via)
Game 3: vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Why the Dawgs will win: Because Georgia has never lost to a Division 1-AA team.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because every streak has to end, and Coastal Carolina has the best long snapper in the country. Also, after my projected 0-2 start, the team might have lost all its confidence, while the fans surely will have considered seppuku as an alternative to watching the Dawgs for the rest of the season.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
Game 4: @Ole Miss Ackbars Black Bears Rebels
Why the Dawgs will win: Georgia easily has more talent than the Rebs, and should have the experience edge as well, unless the Mississippians gain XP like a Georgia Tech student playing World of Warcraft from their first 3 games against BYU, Southern Illinois, and Vanderbilt.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because it's a trap!
This doesn't look like something that would not be a trap. (via)
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
Game 5: vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Why the Dawgs will win: The bizarro Bulldogs will have already played Auburn and LSU before playing Georgia, so we'll know if last year was a flash in the pan or not. Unfortunately for the western division Dawgs, however, their historical record in away games just isn't that good, and this year's game is in Sanford Stadium.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Dan Mullen did it at Florida. Dan Mullen is doing it at Mississippi State.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Tossup/Loss
Urban Meyer lets Dan Mullen know the secret to beating Georgia every year. (Hint: The secret is to wear Florida's uniforms.) (I hate Florida.) (Via)
Game 6: @ Tennessee Volunteers
Why the Dawgs will win: Year 2 of the Derek Dooley project does not bring a significantly improved talent pool in Knox-vegas, so the depth problems that plagued the Vols last year don't look to improve appreciably this season.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because Dooley seemed to find a way to overcome his team's customary second-half swoon during the final few games of the 2010 season, and if they can continue to compete for 60 full minutes, Tennessee might even be a contender for the SEC East this year.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Tossup/Win
Game 7: @ Vanderbilt Commodores
Why the Dawgs will win: Because they're Vanderbilt.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because the game is at Vanderbilt.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
Game 8: vs. Florida Gators @ DrunkVegas Jacksonville
Why the Dawgs will win: Because I hate Florida with the fire of a thousand suns being stoked by the fire of an additional thousand suns.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because that hasn't mattered for the last 20 years, and because Florida will not be taking the field in Vanderbilt's uniforms. Once again, I'll be limited to the empty pleasure of enjoying the quality fried gator tail served by Park's Seafood Restaurant in Daytona Beach.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Tossup/Loss
1942 result: Georgia 75-0
It is true, however, that gator tails are right tasty. (Via)
Game 9: vs. New Mexico State Aggies
Why the Dawgs will win: Because Georgia has never lost to a current member of the WAC.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because if Georgia's already 0-8 by this point and has lost to a 1-AA team, who's to say NMSU doesn't have a chance, too?
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
Game 10: vs. Auburn Tiglesmen
Why the Dawgs will win: Because Auburn has no Cam Newton, no Nick Fairley, and no chance of being anywhere near as good as they were in 2010.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because Chizik's gonna Chiz.
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
Which I think means that he likes trolling just for the fun of it. Or something. (Via)
Game 11: vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Why the Dawgs will win: Because after our very public early-season humiliation, the Dawgs will be rolling, having gotten their proverbial act together, and Kentucky is just another obstacle in the road to a strong finish.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because Kentucky loves to beat us in situations like that, and in fact they've beaten Georgia as many times in the last 5 years as they've beaten South Carolina, Florida, Tennessee, and LSU combined. (Either that, or we'll already be 0-10, and we ain't winning at all if we haven't won by now.)
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction:Tossup/Win
Game 12: @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Why the Dawgs will win: Just as we don't need a reason to lose to Florida, we don't need a reason to beat Georgia Tech.
Why the Dawgs will lose: Because even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. (And Paul Johnson doesn't give a sh*t about acorns, squirrels, or beating Georgia. Well, maybe he cares about that last part.)
Projection: Loss
Real Prediction: Win
It's impossible to show this picture of Ben Jones eating Grant Field grass too many times, right? Yeah, that's what I thought. (Via)
Final win/loss record projection:
At this point, I can see no way that Georgia can avoid an 0-12 football season. Mark Richt will undoubtedly get fired after game 3, and Mike Bobo will be named the interim coach for the rest of the season. Sanford Stadium will be burned to the ground and Kirby Smart will soon be crossing the GeorgiBama frontier because "Mama called." Basically, the 2011 football season can be summed up by the following:
Real conclusion and prediction:
This season is extremely difficult to predict. On one hand, Georgia has great talent and a good amount of experience at key positions all over the team. On the other hand, however, they had all of that last year, too. SEC games are almost always very close affairs, and at least 3-4 games are decided by your team's discipline, heart, and their ability to perform under the pressure that comes at the end of the game. The Dawgs have historically been excellent in that area under Mark Richt, but came up woefully short in 2010.
Can the Red and Black recapture the confidence and last-minute discipline and execution skills that won them 2 SEC Championships and multiple 10-win seasons in the first half of this decade? The answer to that question will be the determining factor between another 6-6 season and a 10-2 season. My prediction is an 8-4 finish, which will probably be good enough to keep Mark Richt in Athens for another year, though if that result were to hold, his seat would be hotter than ever in 2012.
What are your predictions for the upcoming season?
* - No, not really.
Go Dawgs!
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Probably close
Though I hate to internalize the belief, you are probably pretty close with the 8-4 call. I would like to see us all completely wow…ed by the new Herschel in Crowell. I would like to see the D gel into a Junkyard pack of hounds. I would like to see the promise of a “best in SEC” QB in Murray come to real fruition…but I am just not overly confident at all. CMR is a really “good” coach. It that title enough?
2 years to the Cup
Not at all...
… Your thoughts are well-stated, and appreciated!
We would all like to be wow’ed by the team this year. :-) I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong in my predictions!
by vineyarddawg on Jul 27, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you kidding?
You honestly think that CMR can keep his job next year with an 8-4 record? ONLY if he wins the East with that record.We need to clean house.
There is no magic number or formula. I don't want us to be a Bama or Florida, ever. We gave Vince many more chances, and CMR has done as well or better than virtually any other coach in the given time period.
Sure, we could try and hire a mercenary, then we get more of a mess long term. CMR will most certainly be retained with and 8-4 record regardless. The only exceptions can see is if we lose to two Div 1 AA schools. There is no way that will happen.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Not kidding.
Instead, trying to make a rational case. I think 8 wins is enough to move the chains, though they’ll have to pause for a measurement. Nine wins is easier, and 10 wins or a trip to Atlanta is good for ending the hot seat talk.
Eight lucky or crappy wins might not do it. But if we beat Florida, USC, and/or Boise, we may be able to forgive a close loss to a rising Mississippi team.
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Butch Davis is available.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Jul 27, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
My pessimissim revolves around this (such a perfect picture of it) :
Insert joke here
When we have a competent OC in the booth,and not on the sidelines, I will feel much better. Even just in the booth for CMB would be a start.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Why is having the OC in the booth such a big deal?
I get the concern: he can’t see everything that’s going on, but surely there’s someone up in the box keeping him informed. Steve Spurrier is his own OC at South Carolina, and he seems to be doing OK from the sidelines. Tom Moore, who coached all of Peyton Manning’s highest scoring Colts offenses, preferred the sideline. Certified offensive genius Mike Martz prefers the sideline to the press box as well.
I see it as a systemic failure to try and "coach up" during a game rather than pay attention to X's and O's.
CMB is no Spurrier and you want to reference Peyton Manning with the Colts? That’s a little apples to oranges. I remember (generally) that CMR said the move to the sidelines was to interact with the players more. It’s not working. The play action formula requires more of a chess match and if we are having to coach up during game play, the horse is out of the barn. Our play action formula has been weak under CMB and as we have debated before, there have been no rings with him on the sidelines.
No one desires to hire CMB away. I just watched a bunch of BSU Kellen Moore stuff and they have been running a better under center play action O than we have. We may have to agree to disagree, but CMB on the sidelines has not proven to work.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Agree.
Mike Bobo has been and can continue to be the right offensive coordinator for UGA. I think our scoring numbers bear that out.
But my subjective take is that we leave an awful lot of yards and points on the field when we lose the chess match. I hope that Bobo could elevate his game by elevating his perch. I think he could do better, and I am at least in favor of trying it out.
Plus, with Murray now in his third year, the need to “coach ’em up” on the sidelines must be less pressing. Isn’t that what position coaches are for?
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Excellent points, first and thom, . . .
. . . although Mike Bobo is both the offensive coordinator and the quarterbacks coach.
However, I agree with your larger point. Aaron Murray is unlikely to need constant hand-holding on the sidelines, he can confer with Coach Bobo by telephone if the latter is in the booth, and there’ll be a pretty good ex-quarterbacks coach left on the field even if Coach Bobo goes back to the booth . . . Mark somebody, coached a couple of Heisman winners, can’t remember his name. . . .
Go 'Dawgs!
And a darn fine QB coach.
I take for granted how good our QB play has been for the entire Richt era. All the way back to David Greene, we’ve had tremendous development and play out of signalcallers. Probably our worst year at QB was Stafford’s freshman year, and he turned out okay.
Whatever Richt and Bobo are doing with those guys, it’s working. But, like you (I suspect), I don’t think Bobo’s mojo is dependent on gametime proximity.
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
This
We’re all aware that QB play has bee good to great during the Richt era. I also think that most of us know that Mike Bobo has it in him to be an elite OC (see 2nd half of Florida 2010, 1st half of Auburn 2010, 1st half of Tech 2010, Tech 2009, Arkansas 2009, et al for examples). What is going to ultimately dictate the success of Bobo and to a greater extent, Mark Richt, is whether the Bobo that clearly has done his homework and is calling a great game (see examples above) can hold off the dogmatic Bobo (the one that believes balance must be achieved even if the opposing defense has not proven it can stop the pass or run).
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
by AuditDawg on Jul 27, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well said.
The “Rec,” however, was for “Bobo’s mojo.”
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jul 27, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
This
will be the name of my band.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Jul 27, 2011 11:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
There are lots of unexplored possibilities here.
It’s time for Bobo to end his animatronic reliance on run/pass balance and instead turn into a calculating hunter.
In other words, let’s trade Robo Bobo for Bobo the Lobo.
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In his spare time, our offensive coordinator does free legal work . . .
. . . for Cher’s first husband and John Lennon’s widow.
In other words, it’s Bobo pro bono for Sonny Bono and Yoko Ono.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jul 28, 2011 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
who all are friends
with Apollo Anton-Ohno who, I understand, has mono.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
Oh, and I agree with the rejection of the Argumentum ad Peyton Manningum.
It’d sure be nice if we had perhaps the greatest QB of all time playing in the same system for more than a decade, but, until we do, I will continue to hope that our coaches focus on playing football in a way that does not require quite that level of performance.
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Despite all the pessimism here
I’m excited due to the arrival of my media guide today with my newly formed membership in The Georgia Bulldog Club. So there’s that to hold me over until September 3rd.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
I agree that when the media guide arrives, it's a sign that "the season is upon us."
As you said, it also gives you something to do before the season starts. Absorbing all of the 9,316,876 pages of material definitely takes some time!
by vineyarddawg on Jul 27, 2011 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, it's not 9,316,876 pages anymore.
Stupid NCAA regulation imposed between the 2004 and 2005 seasons. A classic case of regulators not understanding human behavior.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jul 27, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I've already absorbed a bit of it
For some reason, it lists UGA as the 2006 Sugar Bowl champs in Atlanta. I mean I’ve tried pretty dang hard to forget that one, but I was there in person and don’t remember us being champs of anything besides failure to defend the fake punt.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
They got it wrong... sort of
We lost the 2006 (2005 Season) Sugar Bowl in Atlanta, but were 2006 (2006 Season) Peach-fil-a Champs in Atlanta. Not sure which they were actually referring to with that mistake. Almost left that Peach Bowl at halftime, sure glad I didn’t.
"If there's one thing worse than chlamydia, it's Florida." ~ Emma Stone
by RedCrake on Jul 28, 2011 1:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Mediocrity By the Law of Averages
Face it: the 2011 Dawgs, like their three immediate predecessors, are inscrutable. They have big strengths harnessed to big weaknesses, and more questions than a Jeopardy episode.
Our biggest problem, a lack of depth at many positions, shouldn’t be a problem in those two tough opening games. But one of the team’s ultimate strengths, a freshman class with several potential impact players, probably won’t manifest itself until later in the season.
We have a nicely designed SEC schedule, which is perhaps our most important advantage over last year. But it’s loaded with potential “trap” games: on the road against Ole Miss and Tennessee (viz. 2007 and 2009, where there was no objective reason the Vols should have been able to register a blowout), and at home against Dan Mullen U. and Gus Malzahn U.
Most Dawg fans are convinced we are overdue for a win in Jaxville, and the Gators are in a down year. But we will be facing a team at least as talented as ours, led by a coach who almost always has gotten better-than-expected performances from talented defensive players, and who has delegated the offense to a man whose manifest weaknesses at Notre Dame have virtually no bearing on what he might be able to do as an OC in Gainesville.
The bottom line is that no sane person can make a confident prediction about this year. So an 8-4 or 7-5 prediction makes sense, if only as a matter of playing the averages in what could be an erratic record.
Your points are valid.
Trouble is, most of us are insane. Football has that effect.
/takes another lithium pill
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Jul 27, 2011 11:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If you're confident...
… then you’re insane. But, if you’re sane, you can’t be sure. Somebody should write a book about this.
by first and thom on Jul 27, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Why pessimism is the only way to go.
At this point it isn’t even about analyzing strengths and weaknesses. It has nothing to do with looking at returning starters compared to our opponents. Breaking down the schedule has little to offer.
Pessimism is an emotional survival tool. Pessimism takes soul-crushing disappointment off the menu of emotional outcomes this season could bring.
Does it make August less fun? Yes.
Small price to pay to insure that my psyche won’t be shattered by January.
The opposite of this is right where the BSU nation is right now -
let’s just say we do win that game, crazy me. Their hearts will be crushed, while we go “whew”. Funny thing it is.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
As long as we're saying, . . .
. . . can I be taller?
(Paul Reiser FTW!)
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jul 28, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
My prediction:
I feel like we should be the favorite in 8 games, and the underdog to BSU, USC, MSU, and UF. Obviously, that will change as the season progresses. But assuming it stays that way, and we take one we shouldn’t and drop one we shouldn’t, we finish 8-4. If we take all that we should (which I think we can reasonably do) and steal one or two (probably MSU and another, which should be reasonable given the closeness a lot of these will probably come down to), we can finish at 9-3 or 10-2. I’d be surprised at anything other than 8-4 or 9-3, whichever way it goes. But for the first time in a while, I don’t think there’s a single game on that schedule that we have no business winning.
"It'll only be reviewed because the guys up in the booth want to watch it a few times too." AJ's one-handed catch at Colorado
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