How Many Games Do the Georgia Bulldogs Have to Win in 2011 for Mark Richt to Keep His Job?

I’m sorry, what was the question again?

If, under the circumstances, I feel that, normally, Richt has earned the right to another year in order to see how it goes, he should be fired. I had that attitude at the end of the last season. I can’t attribute it to hard numbers or set metrics. It’s just a gut feeling. If, on the other hand, I feel that Richt has earned a right to stay, well, he has earned a right to stay.

It’s just hard to quantify in my mind.

It’s a gut feeling.

If UGA were 100% healthy and didn’t lose Ealey, King, Jones (potentially for a few games), many of OL, and Lord knows who next, then I would be much harsher.

I’m not saying the loss of players is an absolute excuse, but our expectations with a team of freshmen and razor-thin depth at certain positions should be realistic.

That said, I want to see our offensive be efficient, I want to see our OL pushing the opposing DL off the blocks, I want to see textbook tackling, and I want to see less bone-headed mistakes. Thus, if we play better, I want Richt to stay, regardless of record (within reason).

but you’re 3 benchmarks sounds strong.
9-10+ wins
Florida
SEC East

That seems about right. Mine, as kind of said yesterday, is more a winning record out of the 5 game set SC, UT, UF, AU, GT. Win 3 of those 5, and he’s probably safe. Win 4 or 5 of those 5, and he’s definitely safe for a while. Lose 3 of those 5, and he’s probably in trouble. Lose 4 or 5 of those 5, and he’s definitely in trouble.

any better and I’m confident he returns
any worse and I’m confident he’s gone

The bowl game and who the losses are to will determine how hot his seat is going into the next year.

For example: at 9-3 regular season, a bowl win plus one of the 3 losses not being to Florida makes his 2012 seat a good bit cooler. A 9-3 regular season plus ugly bowl loss and one of the 3 was in Jax, keeps him warm going into 2012.

8-4 is the mystery number to me because the ultimate decision on his fate will need to be made before the bowl game most likely.

I don’t see any reason why everyone’s expectations are so high. Win the East and beat the Gators? Of course Richt will be back then. I suggest that any one (not two) of Kyle’s list at the beginning of the article would suffice to keep our coach employed. Win seven games, but beat FL? Particularly if we win a bowl game? That’s not going to get Richt fired. Lose to Florida and win only eight games, but win the SEC East? Look, if we win the SEC East, there is no way Richt is getting fired. Win nine games? Clear sign of improvement. Once again, Richt is retained.

None of these things are going to quiet all the grumbling by themselves, but they would suffice to show enough improvement to keep the powers that be from pulling the trigger on a new coach – who almost certainly would not be Gary Patterson.

From a personal perspective, I would also feel adequate about any one of the benchmarks in the OP. I expect this season to be painful, but have high hopes for 2012.

And they will evaluate CMR’s entire body of work, as it should be. If minor player and staff infractions were to increase, poor performance/effort on the field rear its ugly head, and most importantly, fan malaise were to set in, then Richt is gone. But we have a good core of players, favorable schedule, and a head coach who clearly notes that he does not suffer from amnesia. I’m not even convinced he’s on the “hot seat” with whom it matters. Either be able to re-assert his credentials with what he has to work with this year, or simply fall victim to the “any change must be good” philosophy of management. If there were any really hot coaching prospect(s) available for UGA out there, I think CMR is in more trouble, but the truth is, we’d be hard pressed to find better than Richt, just different.

P.S. That’s not being a Disney Dawg….just being realistic about how big money CFB seems to work.

Tech, Auburn & FL – if he win’s those 3 he could probably lose every other game.

The big phrase Mike Hamilton used as the season wore on (though not publicly) was that he was looking for a “win he could hang his hat on”. I would imagine a similar sentiment will come into play if Georgia gets off to a rocky start. If the Dawgs struggle out of the gate, it will be less about what the final win total is and more about who the wins are against.

1) If Georgia wins the SEC East (or more), it’s a moot point.
2) If Georgia does not win the SEC East, then:
a) Did they not win it because a divisional foe had a great year and Georgia had a good year,
b) Did they not win it because they were one of a pack of mediocre teams, or
c) Did they not win it because they were awful, or
c) Did they not win it because Spurrier lives to beat UGA, Tennessee treats visiting Dawg teams like they caught them stealing something, Guz Malzahn is a sooper genius, and Florida could find a way to turn the ball over 14 times in Jacksonville and still win?

If the answer is “a”, then Mark Richt will continue his gainful employment in Athens. If it is “b”, then who the hell knows. If it is “c”, then he will permanently relocate to Honduras.

…but my gut feeling is that CMR’s fate will be decided at the final gun in week 2. Granted, he’ll have to be better than 6-7, and beat some of the rivals, but a 2-0 start all but assures an additional year.

  Starting 1-1 (1-0 SEC) is betting odds for Richt, but 1-1 (0-1 SEC) is very negative indicator in my book. 0-2 and I’d lay 6-5 odds he doesn’t see the Tech game unless the Dawgs start beating opponents like they stole Herschel’s Heisman.

  I think that 4-0 vs UF, UT, AU and GT would probably carry him (with a decent-quality, quality bowl win) but I don’t know if he’d be around to see that after an 0-2 start. Beyond that, I agree that winning the East brings him back for one more year, regardless of HOW they win it (the ‘05(?) ruling about the tiebreaker going to the highest BCS ranking comes to mind) but that without that they Dawgs need to fill my vote’s criteria to bring Richt back.

  The POSSIBLE exception is, say, a 1-1 start (losing to SC) that sees them win 8 games (losing to UF) but seeing a ton of promise and improvement from the “Dream Team.” But I think that would have to be predicated on a run to, say, 4-2, followed by a port/starboard finish and an Outback Bowl win.

  NOTE: Can anybody else tell I’ve been doing Risk Mitigation exercises while drinking bourbon??? Stupid CISSP…….