Would Gary Patterson Make a Better Head Coach for the Georgia Bulldogs Than Mark Richt?
by T Kyle King on Jul 11, 2011 12:15 AM EDT
in Georgia Bulldogs Football
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PrintI am sick and tired of hearing people say "Well I mean who would we get to replace Richt"
When I hear those words I immediately dismiss the speaker as someone that the State should have euthanized at birth not only for population control but also in an effort to de-muddy the gene pool. I have selected Gary Patterson as the answer to that non-sense statement. He is far superior to Mark Richt in all phases and measurable that one would apply to a Head Football Coach
CCRider (June 15, 2011)
I wish I could claim that I read every Georgia Bulldogs weblog on a daily basis, but there are only so many hours in the day, which is why I was glad that Mr. Sanchez posted a link to a piece he had written at his weblog, Sports & Grits. For one thing, I thought Mr. Sanchez made a valid point. For another, it led me to the above-quoted posting by one of his co-authors.
Naturally, I take issue with CCRider’s assessment, both of my fitness, vel non, for inclusion in the gene pool and of Gary Patterson’s availability to succeed Mark Richt should we need a new head football coach (which, at the moment, we do not). However, I acknowledge that these are matters about which reasonable Red and Black fans can and do differ, so I am content to have us agree to disagree upon those topics.
What is not the subject of reasonable disagreement, however, is the claim that Gary Patterson "is far superior to Mark Richt" using the "measurable" criteria by which one fairly might judge a head football coach. Those measurable criteria are these:
Gary Patterson was born on February 13, 1960, in what was then Big Eight country. His coaching career began in the 1980s and included nine years as a college defensive coordinator (Cal Lutheran, 1987; Sonoma State, 1989-1991; New Mexico, 1996-1998; TCU, 1998-2000) before he began his first full season as the head coach of the TCU Horned Frogs in 2001. During his ten years on the job in Fort Worth, Coach Patterson has led Texas Christian to a 98-28 record that includes a 6-4 mark in bowls and a 61-18 ledger in conference play. Coach Patterson’s Horned Frog teams have posted double-digit wins seven times, have lost more than four games on three occasions, and have ended the season below .500 once. Since 2001, TCU has claimed four conference crowns (one in Conference USA and three in the Mountain West Conference), and Coach Patterson has been named conference coach of the year three times (once in C-USA and twice in the MWC). In his ten full seasons as the Horned Frogs’ head coach, Coach Patterson has guided TCU to seven top 25 rankings in the final AP postseason poll, including three in the top ten and one in the top five.
There is no denying that this is all very impressive, which is why Coach Patterson would be my second choice to succeed Coach Richt if, at the end of the 2011 season, the Bulldogs found themselves in the market for a new head coach. However, before we anoint Coach Patterson as "far superior to" Coach Richt, let’s give our current head coach his due. Measured by the same standards, here is how he fares in comparison:
Mark Richt was born on February 18, 1960, in what was then Big Eight country. His coaching career began in the 1980s and included eight years as a college offensive coordinator (East Carolina, 1989; Florida State, 1994-2000) before he began his first season as the head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs in 2001. During his ten years on the job in Athens, Coach Richt has led the Red and Black to a 96-34 record that includes a 7-3 mark in bowls and a 53-27 ledger in conference play. Coach Richt’s Bulldog teams have posted double-digit wins six times, have lost more than four games on two occasions, and have ended the season below .500 once. Since 2001, Georgia has finished first in the division four times and claimed a pair of conference crowns, and Coach Richt has been named the conference coach of the year twice (all in the Southeastern Conference). In his ten seasons as the Bulldogs’ head coach, Coach Richt has guided Georgia to eight top 25 rankings in the final AP postseason poll, including five in the top ten and two in the top five.
In short, Gary Patterson and Mark Richt are two guys of identical ages with similar backgrounds who have attained comparable levels of achievement in their shared profession. Coach Patterson is marginally ahead of Coach Richt by some measurements, and Coach Richt is marginally ahead of Coach Patterson by some others, but the tale of the tape is remarkably equal.
Is it possible for a reasonable college football fan to prefer Coach Patterson to Coach Richt? Of course it is. Is there a legitimate argument to be made for the proposition that Coach Patterson’s career is waxing while Coach Richt’s is waning? Without a doubt . . . though the point might also be made fairly that what one man did in Conference USA and the Mountain West, the other man did in the Southeastern Conference, which is not exactly a distinction without a difference.
The idea that Gary Patterson "is far superior to Mark Richt in all phases and measurable that one would apply to a Head Football Coach," though? Clearly and undeniably, that is sheer abject nonsense. Far from suggesting that Coach Patterson is far superior to Coach Richt, the measurable criteria suggest strongly and unmistakably that Coach Patterson and Coach Richt are strikingly similar. The numbers might diverge between 2010 and 2011, as they admittedly did between 2009 and 2010, but, for now, it’s hard to find much more than a dime’s worth of difference between them on paper, which perhaps suggests that, if Gary Patterson is a quality football coach (and no one denies that he is), then maybe, just maybe, Mark Richt might be one, too.
If not, well, measurable criteria may not be the best way to argue otherwise, and, if we’re going to go with more amorphous intangibles, the latest data we have include a top-rated recruiting class, a stretch without a player arrest dating back nine months to October 11, a staff shakeup in the strength and conditioning program, and unimpeachable personal character in Coach Richt’s column.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Does "masurable criteria"...
…include two extremely disappointing seasons with about a million losses to Florida and a loss to lowly UCF in a low-tier bowl? In that case put me on Gary Patterson’s bandwagon.
Measurable criteria do include that.
They also include winning records against every other rival and a trio of Sugar Bowls. I’m looking at both men’s careers as a whole, which are very comparable. If we’re going to assume that the last two or three years are the only representative numbers, then, obviously, our results are going to be skewed.
A lot of fans felt that way about Vince Dooley after 1974, de-emphasizing the successes of 1964 to 1968 and concentrating on the disappointments of 1969 to 1974. Fred Davison stood by his coach. I think the ensuing stretch from 1975 to 1983 worked out fairly well for the ’Dawgs.
Go 'Dawgs!
Curious Kyle, who would be your first choice as replacement...
if, heaven forbid, we should be looking for a new head football coach in the near future?
Personally, I’d target Urban before Patterson but it’d be a close 1-2.
Also, for future reference, CC tends to speak in hyperbole and exaggeration. So while both he, and to an extent I, feel Patterson would be better suited to the mini-NFL that is now the SEC, “every measure” was a bit of exaggeration. Although if you focus on the last 5 years and discount the first 5, the measures all start leaning pretty hard towards Patterson and it’s not as much an exaggeration as your numbers imply.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Agreed, and I believe I conceded that point, though it involves a measure of cherry-picking to do so.
My first choice, as indicated in the posting I linked to above, remains Kirby Smart.
Go 'Dawgs!
Interesting choice...
the resume for several others would certainly be stronger, but without a crystal ball I sure can’t say that’d be a bad choice.
And I don’t think it’s as much cherry picking as adjusting. Mark Richt had strong initial success (some would claim thanks to several Donnan recruits), but failed to a) adapt his scheme to changing players’ ability, and b) adapt his assistants to keep things as strong as possible when some were clearly overmatched for their job. The last 5 years has shown an alarming inability to adapt and show foresight in correcting issues. Patterson on the other hand has adapted his offense to new ideas and to changing ability of those who can put on the field. His defense has been static stylistically, but I, like my cohort, absolutely love the Joe Lee Dunn style 4-2-5 and think it’s ideally suited to the plethora of 5’11-6’3, 215-235 lb speedy strikers that Georgia can produce in abnormal abundance, and also agree with the defensive idea that simpler is generally better (in scheme, as it eliminates thinking and empahsizes reacting).
So while focusing on the last 5 years vs. the first 5 may be a bit of cherry picking, I also think it perfectly illustrates the primary difference between the two men, and also their ability to lead long term success in a football program. Patterson seems much more adaptable and capable of changing as need be and resources dictate. Mark Richt has shown that he’s arguably loyal to a fault and more reactive than proactive.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I'm a bit biased, but
though the point might also be made fairly that what one man did in Conference USA and the Mountain West, the other man did in the Southeastern Conference, which is not exactly a distinction without a difference.
I think it’s worth pointing out that while Richt has had great success at Georgia, the very fact that he is at Georgia plays no small role in this success. Georgia is one of the top programs in the history of college football, and is big dog (no pun intended) in one of the top states at producing college talent. Gary Patterson has had great success at TCU, which can in no way be mistaken for Georgia (except in number of football national championships). TCU wasn’t just bad before Franchione brought Patterson into Fort Worth, they were awful (My entire family, including my seventy year old grandparents, rushed the field when we beat SMU the last week to prevent a winless season). Is the opposition tougher in the SEC? That’s not a question that needs to be asked in any other conference right now. However, winning at Georgia is a whole heck of a lot easier than winning at TCU.
That said, I really like coach Richt, and if (god forbid) Patterson did leave us for Georgia, I’d feel pretty happy if we were able to get Richt to lead TCU in return. Here’s hoping you have a great season so we can both keep our coaches.
I take nothing away from Gary Patterson as a coach; I conceded as much in the above article.
However, it shouldn’t be tough to win at TCU, which has far more history as one of the “big boys” of college football than any other non-AQ team (as you noted in your parenthetical aside regarding national championships) and is situated right on top of a fertile recruiting ground. Winning at TCU ought to be a lot easier than winning at Boise State or Utah.
That said, I appreciate your concession in your concluding paragraph, which essentially is my point: Gary Patterson and Mark Richt are coaches of comparable quality. The idea that one is a marked improvement upon the other simply is not borne out by the numbers. I make that point not to tear down Coach Patterson, but to build up Coach Richt (particularly in July, when fans of every school ought to be closing ranks behind their man; we’ll know soon enough what the season holds).
Go 'Dawgs!
One other point:
In an effort to draw fair comparisons, I did not look at such things as BCS bowl games or non-conference records, out of recognition of the fact that Georgia and TCU are situated differently where access to major bowl games and the opportunity to play meaningful non-conference opponents at home are concerned. In other words, I deliberately avoided using measurements that would’ve skewed the figures unrepresentatively, in favor of employing numbers that made direct one-to-one comparisons possible.
Go 'Dawgs!
I would consider TCU akin to Auburn from a recruiting perspective...
there is a huge amount of big time talent in nearby locales, but almost never would you be their first choice. Auburn has to fight uphill battles for kids who’d probably have Georgia, Alabama, or a Florida school as their first choice, but can sift through the second tier after those teams have plucked their choices and find some pretty strong players. TCU would likely be fighting an uphill battle for first choice players against Texas, A&M, even out of state competitors like an LSU or Oklahoma which have both historically recruited well in the Lonestar State. So to win with second choice players you have to have a solid eye for talent and projection. Plus unlike Auburn, I don’t think they have similar shenanigans to change from a kids also-ran to first choice ($$$), and, someone correct me if I’m wrong, but is also a respected academic institution and can’t shuffle along illiterates for 4 yrs as Auburn has been known to do from time to time, which makes things much tougher in sifting throught those leftovers to find a quality meal.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
True, but bear in mind, as well, that TCU currently competes . . .
. . . in the Mountain West, and previously competed in Conference USA. How many of the teams in those conferences are even getting second-tier players?
Go 'Dawgs!
Patterson at UGa.......
I read CC’s post when it first came out and was very surprised and registered that surprise there . A well respected blogger posted in response to the notion of Patterson to Georgia and suggested it Highly Unlikely that CP would even consider a move from Frogs to Dogs. Saban is not coming nor is Meyers, or the Pirate. I guess anyone “can dream” or listen to a 12-bar blues tune. UT was dreaming when they hired Mr. Kiffen and Coach Kiffen . The blowback has been devastating. The Hillbillies have embarked on a hiring and firing Merry-Go-Round that morphed into a nightmare of which I am positive they dream of waking up from one day. I doubt that young CD fares much better than a very similar Mike Shula did at Alabama. Four more years and UT will be back on that carousel . My biggest objection to the original post of CC’s was that I felt it had a fire Zook undertone and I took exception to it. CMR has two years on his contract. If he doesn’t win the SEC and has two 8 win seasons he will stay until he finishes that contract bringing in another top ten recruiting class in 2012. Mr. McGarity will have a replacement in hand. CMR will acknowledge that and move on with the next phase of his life. He is a DGD and will be treated as such. There are more SEC titles in store for the Dawgs and who knows maybe that National Championship.
Per: “However, winning at Georgia is a whole heck of a lot easier than winning at TCU.” meme. “I don’t believe I would have told that!”. Since joining the competitive ;-) Mountain West in 2005 Patterson has faced 10 ranked (in the top 25 when the game was played) teams. From 1 per year to a maximum of 4 per year. Average about 1.5 a year See Wiki. While at the" Easy to Win Games at" University of Georgia": Coach Mark Richt has faced no fewer than 30 ranked teams. From no less than 4 per year to a maximum of 7 per year. An average of 5 per year during the same time frame as Patterson. I just don’t believe it is easier to win with the Dogs than it is with the Frogs. “NO WAY…..NO HOW!”
by AthensHomerDawg3 on Jul 11, 2011 9:04 AM EDT reply actions
Well said, AthensHomerDawg3.
Yeah, I think there’s an assumption that Gary Patterson is just a phone call away, and that isn’t necessarily the case. He’s well compensated where he is, and TCU’s move to the Big East means he will be playing for BCS bowl bids annually without taking a particularly noteworthy step up in weight class, in terms of the week-to-week on-field competition. I think he’s a very good coach, but it isn’t safe to assume he’s ours for the taking.
Go 'Dawgs!
Now this I will strongly disagree with you on Kyle...
we seem to have a bit of the Munson/Dooley like downplaying going on with some. Fact is that Georgia is a peach of a job, and easily among the 10 best spots in all of college football. It’s not bad to act like that and expect a top 10 coach. I’m not saying Richt isn’t that caliber of coach, because he has certainly shown as much at times. But to have this woe-is-me attitude that we can’t do better would have kept Donnan and his 8-4 around. We can demand better than mediocre, and should demand better than mediocre. Fear of a bad hire would paralyze even the best of programs and take them down quickly. That fear does no good. If Mark Richt is a top 10 coach, then by all means, he needs to stay. But if he’s not, we are a top 10 program deserving of a top 10 coach, and should seek to rectify that issue. Can we get a Patterson, or Meyer, or Saban specifically? Maybe, maybe not. But just because we may or may not be capable of hiring those specific names doesn’t mean we can’t hire a coach capable of taking this program to the heights it’s more than capable of attaining.
And I don’t think Homer should use the “fire Zook” idea as a sign of something bad. After all, firing Zook did seem to work out pretty well for those reptiles to our south, and the program made vast improvements upon [redacted]’s departure.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
You're reading way more into what I wrote than I intended, Mr. Sanchez.
There is no “woe is me” attitude at work here, and I am not advocating keeping a mediocre coach; where the two segments of the fan base disagree is whether Mark Richt is a good coach going through a bad patch (like Vince Dooley did) or a coach in decline, and 2011 will answer that question.
My point was specific to Gary Patterson: I’m not saying we can’t get him, but it isn’t a certainty that we could, either, because he already is well paid, he is headed to a BCS conference, and he has no ties to Georgia of which I am aware. We might get him, but anyone who thinks it’s a slam dunk is mistaken. That’s all I’m saying.
Go 'Dawgs!
Can’t disagree with either of those paragraphs. Again, well said sir.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks.
I’ll confess to defaulting to dour, but I agree with you that Georgia is a quality job. I just think there are as many reasons why Gary Patterson might stay in Fort Worth as there are reasons why he might leave for Athens. I don’t think anyone should be sure, either way.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jul 11, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree, but Patterson is little more than a MacGuffin
the specifics of which are immaterial to the rest of the story.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
And with MacGuffin I mean he's an easy choice
being at a school not until recently considered a high profile spot and even then it’s not exactly considered a so-called “destination” job like Georgia would be. One with proven success and a style of play on both sides of the ball easily adapatable to the talent at hand and available in recruiting.
So he’s the easy name to target for those who wanna cry that we can’t fire Richt because he’s the best we can do. Richt’s been pretty good, but his results the last 5 years leave a large gap to be improved upon. Hopefully, he’s the man to make those improvements, cause we all enjoy having a man of his quality leading the program. But if he’s not, there is no shortage of capable candidates to make those improvements with Patterson being easily argued as amongst. An argument could just as easily be made that Patterson wouldn’t come, or wouldn’t be the right choice, but a Smart, or Meyer, or Peterson, or Mullen, or Strong, or Dungy, or any number of names could just as easily be that caliber coach to bring us back to the level of success we saw before Richt’s recent run of poor form. That’s what Greg McGarity is for, to make those decisions on if Richt can lead this program at the level it’s capable of attaining and sustaining, or if not, who amongst a large pool of potential names would be capable of doing such.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 12, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
"firing Zook did seem to work out pretty well"
Maybe it’s because I’m old. Certainly, firing Zook and hiring Meyer worked out very well — for 5 or six seasons. We don’t know if Muschamp will be better than Zook.
But that is more on the Muschamp decision than the Zook decision
it’s seperate. And saying how we don’t want to become a carousel like UT has with Kiffin, Dooley, and whoever probably succeeds Dooley in a year or two, is not realistic. Bad hires happen to everyone see Zook and the be-all, end-all of ADs right now, Jeremy Foley. You can’t keep a mediocre coach (again I’m not trying to say Richt IS a mediocre coach, but the last 5 seasons have produced mostly mediocre results outside of the second half of 2007) for fear of a worse hire if you are a top 10 program. That type of thinking would have kept Mackovic at Texas instead of Mack Brown. It’d keep Frank Solich at Nebraska (OK, this might be your best argument to make guys). It’d keep Zook at Florida, Donnan here, John Cooper at Ohio St. And of those 5, 4 were succeeded by no-doubt-about-it better hires. If you are a high caliber program with the money and resources Georgia has, you aren’t lacking of options for a new coach should one coach fail to deliver demanded results.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Proceed sir.
H/t for your Tombstone reference. If my memory serves the whole Zook thing got out of hand. It got ugly. Meyers success had a certain serendipity to it. His coaching ability and great offensive mind was tied to 4 Great players a great DC and not too shabby OC. I couldn’t help but notice that when they left ………so did he. When CMR goes and he may be gone after 2012 , it won’t get ugly………. damage will be contained. CMR will help ease/ immerse the new coach into the wonderful tradition of Georgia football.
by AthensHomerDawg3 on Jul 11, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
It was more a play on Peach State than Tombstone...
but nice catch.
Good point on Meyer without Strong and Mullen, although it’s a small sample size and hard to say what adjustments he’d have made to his staff health permitting. But in terms of Richt, I doubt he’d have hung around hoping against hope that the an Addazio would correct what’s wrong like CMR did with Martinez, Jancek, Van Halanger, and perhaps now Bobo among others. Again bad hires happen, the question is how quickly you address those failures and if you can make good hires to replace the bad. That currently remains to be seen with Grantham and Tereshinski. Belin was arguably a good choice to replace Jancek, but we’ll again have to wait and see on his replacement in Olivadotti. Kind of like with our RB position coacahes. Pearce wasn’t a good hire. His replacement, Rucker, seemed like a great hire but unfortunately short lived. Kirby was not a good choice to replace Rucker, but Ball was to replace him. McClendon is too early to call as good or bad replacing Ball.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Erm
The MWC has been, by far, the strongest non-AQ conference and looks likely to remain that way in the future. Announced realignment won’t let them close the gap on the Big East and ACC, but did essentially toss their closest competition in the WAC down to Sun Belt land. But half of the MWC in any given year for TCU’s entire time there would have gone winless in the Big East — even against Greg Robinson’s Orange and Steve Kragthorpe’s Cardinals.
Now, the other half was normally two or three competitive teams and one or two that might have won the conference or come close. But the bottom half of the MWC has historically been awful; that’s one thing that’s likely to change in 2012. Though Boise is going to have a pretty solid grip on the top of the conference (and in fact can pencil in a BCS bid at the beginning of the year, barring a revision in the rules for non-AQs earning an automatic bid), a larger portion of the conference will not be cover-your-eyes awful.
Winning @ TCU versus winning @ UGA
I agree with HawkeyedFrog above that comparing the schedules tells only part of the story. One may assume that if you plucked each team and dropped it into the other’s schedule, UGA would fare better. However, that’s not a complete comparison, because UGA has stronger history, likely a more deeply talented roster, facilities out the wazoo, etc. Kyle makes fair points in observing that TCU is, as non-AQ schools go, about as storied a program as it gets and runs in a fertile recruiting state (but along with nine other schools, including one gorilla), but Georgia is Georgia. It may not be “easier to win” against Georgia’s schedules than against TCU’s, but everything’s relative.
Avoiding the gorilla,,,,
It is interesting to note that in 6 years the Frogs have faced the Gorilla twice. Winning once. I think staying out of that fight leaves you healthy to face the smaller fish in your pond and the occasional out of conference Gorilla (all ten of them in 6 years) . The Dawgs face a lot of Gorillas in and out of conference. Harder to stay healthy for the season. That attrition can kill a season. Drop Georgia into the Mountain West I think you have a new 600 pound gorilla that does better than winning 50% of the games against the existing Gorilla. Drop TCU into the SEC and I think you just double the number Kentucky Wildcats quality teams.
by AthensHomerDawg3 on Jul 11, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
This is not a productive area of discussion.
1) Mark Richt isn’t fired, and shouldn’t be. (Reasonable minds can disagree on this point, obviously.)
2) Saying that Patterson is anything other than the virtual equal of Mark Richt (as Kyle concluded) is falling into the trap of overweighting short-term performance. Building a successful program is not about short-term performance… it’s about long-term consistency.
3) Even if there were an opening, (and I cannot stress this enough) Gary Patterson is not leaving TCU. He’s built himself into a TCU legend, and in just 12 months, his team is joining a BCS-automatic-qualifying conference. The weakest AQ conference. So, would you rather be the legendary head coach at a school at just needs to beat Rutgers, UConn, Louisville, and USF to make it to the BCS? Or would you rather be the “new guy” at a school that’s going to fire you if you don’t beat Florida, Auburn, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and South Carolina?
by vineyarddawg on Jul 11, 2011 9:50 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
+1 for the reference
1) True, but it’s July and we (thankfully) don’t have anything else going on right now to talk about.
2) “Long term consistency” is something Richt has yet to prove he brings to the table though. 06, the first half of 07, and the last 3 seasons have not been “consistent” relative to the success of his first 5 seasons.
3) More money, better facilities, a chance to prove he’s the best of the best in a conference that is considered “the best” around, etc. Without knowing Patterson personally, it’s hard to say if he’d stay or go, or what jobs he might jump TCU to take. And this idea of being fired if you don’t beat [list of schools] is not something that enters the mind of coaches like a Patterson. People in those positions, like say a Crowell, have supreme confidence in their own abilities. Saying there are strong programs to play against, or strong players to compete for time against, comes with the territory and these type of players/coaches tend to think enough of their own ability to not see that as an issue. There is a mindset of beating all comers, so that your last comment would never factor in to the equation.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
“More Money” is somewhat debatable. TCU is inferior to Georgia in several ways, but when it comes to deep pocket boosters who care about the football team we’ve got it made. Our new hundred million dollar stadium renovation was entirely paid for in fifteen phone calls. Money will simply not be the reason we lose Patterson. The answer to the “what jobs would he take” question is trickier, but as he’s turned down interest in his alma mater and Tennessee, but the persistent rumor mill on campus says that he’d jump for Texas or 0U, and may be pretty content waiting for one of those jobs.
by HawkeyedFrog on Jul 11, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Would like a word:
Of course, we’re talking about Georgia not Bama, and the Tide won’t be looking for a coach until Saban’s first 5-loss season. But still, unless your name is T. Boone Pickens, there’s always somebody whose ready to drop more money to overpay a head coach.
by vineyarddawg on Jul 11, 2011 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
TCU is not joining the ACC
So they’re not joining the weakest AQ conference. Sorry.
I would argue that point...
… but I just can’t bring myself to try to evaluate the relative merits of things like Rutgers vs. Maryland or UConn vs. Wake Forest.
by vineyarddawg on Jul 11, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
In the analogy I love to use...
it’s like debating who’s taller between Willow Offgood and Burglecutt. One may be taller than the other, but at the end of the day, they’re both still shorter than everyone else.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone out there feel
like Richt will not get fired after this season, no matter what the record is? I think 2012 is the make-or-break season. Just a hunch.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
"no matter what"?
start 0-2 and follow that with losses to 3 of the 4 between UT, UF, Aub, and GT, and I’d feel pretty strongly McGarity would make a change. IIt’s an enormous if, but if we do, I don’t think McGarity would give him another chance.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don't know that I'd say Richt is safe "no matter what."
If Greg McGarity gave Jay Clark another chance after making the NCAA’s but not the Super Six, he’ll give Richt another chance if he has 7-8 wins but doesn’t win the SEC East (which, certainly, 7-8 wins wouldn’t be good enough to accomplish).
If we collapse completely and have a horror 4-win season, however, I don’t think Richt would be safe. But who really knows… I don’t think any of us really expect that to happen.
Within the realm of “what’s likely,” I’d say it’s probable that Richt would not be fired after 2011. So much can change in just a few weeks, however, that it’s impossible to predict with any sense of certainty. I mean, just 3 months ago, we thought Jim Tressel would be able to fire Gordon Gee before the reverse would happen. And yet, here we are.
by vineyarddawg on Jul 11, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions
And none of us thought we'd lose to Colorado last year...
or Mississippi St, but here we are. I’m not sure 7 or 8 wins does it depending on who those wins are against. Take out Boise, which while a big game can be recovered from with a strong SEC schedule as Va Tech did last year. But SC, UT, Aub, UF, and GT. Of those 5, Richt needs to win at least 2 imo, if not 3, to send the vultures back to their nests. 0-5, and the decision makes itself, 3-2 or better, and the same statement holds with the decision made reversed. 1-4 or 2-3 out of those 5, and McGarity has a tough call on his hands.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Your scenario would be awfully hard to debate
Perhaps I should have said “no matter what…within reason.” 8 wins is mandatory. That’s what I should’ve communicated to begin with.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Jul 11, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Something else to consider
that I addressed over on my blog, but at Georgia, you must face:
South Carolina, Auburn, Florida and Tennessee annually. And at UGA must face Arkansas, Alabama and LSU 4 times a decade. And once every five years (2013 being the next date), Georgia must face Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama and LSU in the same season.
With TCU’s soon arrival to the Big East, I think it will be much easier to go undefeated and have the opporitunity to play in the Orange Bowl and eventually BCS National Championship game through the Big East than the SEC. In the Big East, foes like Pitt, UConn, South Florida, and Rutgers don’t equal LSU, Alabama, Florida, or even South Carolina.
To think we can just call up Gary Patterson and ask him to come is quite a bit of a stretch, in my opinion. If he wins a National Champioinship at TCU, which would be easier than at UGA, he will get his payday either way.
www.grittree.wordpress.com
by Corbindawg on Jul 11, 2011 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Scheduling is only part of that equation....
Florida St had a cakewalk through the ACC over a 15 yr stretch, and it only produced 2 national titles, the first of which came with dispute (from a fellow 1 L Notre Dame, which gave FSU their lone defeat that season). Rich Rodriguez’s Pat White/Steve Slaton teams had pretty easy Big East schedules on the road to national championship games, but would stub their toe. Southern Cal had a somewhat easy Pac 10 for most of the first half of the decade, and it didn’t guarantee titles either as they shared one, got one disputed undisputed (by Auburn), and another failed attempt.
It’s probably an easier path, but that doesn’t make it an automatic path by any means as so many teams with cupcake conference schedules have proven over the last 20 years.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions
It isn't probably an easier path.
It IS an easier path.
Easier schedule doesn’t mean it all; but it can’t hurt. And if you have an AQ conference where you are going to be the favorite every year, then I see that as an opportunity too good to be true. If the end is the same, a NC, then why chose the more difficult road? If I am going to Atlanta, and the path via I-75 is clear and open, I don’t take US 41 because I like the challenge of red lights along the way. If getting to Atlanta is the end game, then I am going to chose the best way possible. And I think anyone would agree that coaching at TCU, in the Big East, with an easier schedule and no conference championship game is an easier path than the SEC. I think any conference is an easier path than the SEC.
And Kyle, can you do something about the Nestea ads? I appreciate looking at the attractive girls sitting on the dock, but I don’t know how well the IT manager would like that.
www.grittree.wordpress.com
But does easier = more likely to win it?
How many schedules have been easier than those of the SEC produced national champion over the last 5 years? In a sport where a single slip up game can cost you that shot at a title, being in the conference where that single slip up does the least damage has it’s advantages.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 11, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
On the other hand, if you go undefeated in the SEC nowadays, you will play for the BCS championship no matter what (and popular sentiment is a one loss SEC team may still get in over any non-Big 12/10/USC team). If Patterson goes undefeated again and doesn’t get a chance at the title game the frustration might very well cause him to search elsewhere.
by HawkeyedFrog on Jul 11, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Very good point.
It does take a good bit of luck to win a National Championship in College football, and the criteria for a team to be able to play in it changes from year to the next. But that is a different argument for a different day.
www.grittree.wordpress.com
Who Georgia should hire is going to be staring them right in the face the first weekend of September
Chris Petersen
"Football is a violent game played by violent people, so put a smile on your face, murder in your heart and lets go kick these f***kers in the mouth" -Dick Bumpas, TCU Defensive Coordinator
Yes, because hiring BSU coaches worked out oh-so-swimmingly for Arizona State and Colorado.
Thanks, but no thanks.
by hailtogeorgia on Jul 11, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I actually completely forgot about him.
He’s another case altogether.
by hailtogeorgia on Jul 11, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m with you in hoping they would hire anyone but Patterson, but This Post lays the reasons why you have to be careful with coaches like Petersen pretty clear.
by HawkeyedFrog on Jul 11, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
So apparently
similar success in the grind of the SEC doesnt mean more than similar success at a non AQ school?Richt doesn’t need a replacement just yet. I think people forget how UGA was before richt, we certainly weren’t a championship team and its not like we were beating UF THEN either. Richt has only elavated peoples expectations, and perhaps by too much.
by Dawgs013 on Jul 11, 2011 9:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
If my math is correct regarding the Florida series...
Richt has nearly doubled our success rate against Florida over his two predecessors combined.
Of course, I’d like to get a little closer to the Dooley clip.
Upon reading this
I am inclined to crawl back into bed. For a few months.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
No.
Success is never final. --Winston Churchill
by Inteljumper on Jul 12, 2011 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Kyle, I hate to call you out in your house, but you just said you admire concision. (going to let you put in the next line)
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
I admire concision for the same reason I admire athletic ability.
If I possessed both, I wouldn’t be nearly as impressed with either.
Basically, I respect talents in inverse proportion to the extent that I have them. The stuff I can do? Well, heck, how big a deal can it possibly be if even I can do it?
Go 'Dawgs!
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