Georgia Bulldogs Projected as Eleven Seed in NCAA Basketball Tournament Field

by T Kyle King on Mar 1, 2011 12:30 PM EST in Georgia Bulldogs Basketball

March is upon us, Chris Dobbertean’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket projection has been posted, and the Georgia Bulldogs remain among the eleven seeds on the S-curve. As before, I’m not convinced this is fair, given the Fox Hounds’ schedule (more about which forthwith), but Chris is offering his unbiased view, his Gainesville pedigree notwithstanding.

Georgia is one of the next four in after the last four in, which is another way of saying that the Hoop Dogs are one of the last teams to make the field without having to go through a play-in game to get there. Chris currently has the Red and Black opening in the Tulsa Pod of the West Region against the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Georgia’s resume includes losses to the second-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish; the third-seeded Florida Gators; the fifth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats, Vanderbilt Commodores, and Xavier Musketeers; the sixth-seeded Temple Owls; and the tenth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers. The Bulldogs have no losses to teams that are not projected to be ten seeds or higher in the tournament, and the Red and Black have only one loss to a team not projected to be a six seed or higher . . . and that one loss was by two points on a blown officiating call.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have beaten the fifth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats, the tenth-seeded Tennessee Volunteers, and the twelfth-seeded Colorado Buffaloes and UAB Blazers. Following tomorrow night’s game against the LSU Tigers, the Classic City Canines will close out the regular season against the Alabama Crimson Tide, who presently are listed among the first four out of the field of 68. In short, Georgia can do little at this point to bolster its tournament resume, but, given the caliber of the opposition to which the Bulldogs have lost, I question whether an eleven seed is a fair measure of the Athenians’ quality as a club.

Is it just me? Do you think that, barring a loss on Wednesday night, Georgia will have earned better than an eleven seed, or does that seem about right to you?

Go ‘Dawgs!

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I agree with the seeding, but disagree that there is not much we can do to help

I think it’s somewhat telling that the above-analysis began with a review of our losses, none of which are bad. The bottom line is that we do not really have a marquee win on the resume. The Tennessee win was big, but they have twelve losses on the year. They are a talented team, but are far from unbeatable (or really even difficult to beat).

The same rings true for Kentucky, an immensely talented team that somehow managed to lose to Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Alabama.

That 2OT loss to Notre Dame is really holding us back. If that had been a win, given the run Notre Dame is on, I bet we’re a nine seed. Which brings me to my next point: the SEC tourney can help our seeding immensely. Florida is playing good ball right now, despite the Kentucky loss. If they win out the regular season, they may grab a 3 seed. If we can manage to get through to face them for the SEC east crown, and manage a victory, it will be the signature win we need to enhance the resume. I think this team needs to show it is capable of beating a Final Four contender for the selection committee to take it seriously. I think a win against Florida would do that.

by WindyCityDawg on Mar 1, 2011 1:30 PM EST reply actions

I see we're on the same wave length.

I am a fan of the Dawgs, Falcons, and Braves...oh...and tacos, but I like the other three more.

by Jman781 on Mar 1, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

Apparently so.

Here’s to a good conference tourney run.

by WindyCityDawg on Mar 1, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

While I agree with you...

…I think that the problem is our lack of wins against the teams that are “better” than us. Sure, we’ve had close games with Notre Dame, Xavier, Florida, Vandy, etc., but we lost all of those games. We did split against UT and UK, but if you are slotting UGA, it’s hard to slot them anywhere but around the 9th-11th seed spot (at least until the SEC Tourney where we could finally beat a Florida or Vandy) when we really haven’t beaten anyone special (not like VT with its win over Duke).

I do take issue with the fact that we’re seeded behind Tennessee and are in the “seed falling” category. Why, exactly, is our seed falling?

I am a fan of the Dawgs, Falcons, and Braves...oh...and tacos, but I like the other three more.

by Jman781 on Mar 1, 2011 1:34 PM EST reply actions

Agreed on the last point.

I’m not sure how our seed is falling, given that the other bubble teams aren’t exactly rising. As for Tennessee, sure, they’ve had some very nice wins (Pitt and Nova, for instance), but they’ve also had some pretty bad losses. I think they’re getting the benefit of being a tournament veteran, as opposed to the newcomer in UGA.

by hailtogeorgia on Mar 1, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Strength of Schedule/RPI

II was talking to a Big 10 alum that played some sort of “Bracket Prediction” fantasy-football type game that scored an individual’s ability to predict “locked” and “eliminated” teams early. The guy seemed to know his stuff and game from a basketball school. While I fancy myself a pretty decent college bball fan, I had nothing on this guy. In any event, he said it was routine to predict 62 of the 64 teams accurately.

His theory in terms of predicting what the committee does is that a team’s RPI alone is not particularly valuable in getting you in. You see teams with bad RPIs get picked over other teams with better RPI rankings. However the strength of schedule from the RPI rankings leads the committee to give a team the benefit of the doubt. It doesn’t make much sense: the RPI strength of schedule is derivative of the RPI rank of each team faced. However, it explains why teams like Tennessee (12 losses, #2 SOS), Michigan State (12 losses, #5 SOS), West Virginia (10 losses, #4 SOS) are likely to get in. It’s one of the reasons Michigan, Penn State and BC are still in the discussion (#9, #21, #18 SOS, respectively).

So, I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t think Tennessee is getting the benefit of the doubt because they are a veteran of the tourney; rather, I think it’s the ridiculous schedule they played and the committee’s tendency to reward teams that do that. Granted, I’m basing my whole opinion on insight gained from a Big 10 fan, but their conference has some decent basketball chops.

by WindyCityDawg on Mar 1, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

The consensus bracket...

…currently has Georgia at #10. (Not that there’s a huge difference.)

by Rangers100 on Mar 1, 2011 3:58 PM EST reply actions

Good stuff there.

Nice find. I like looking at stuff like this. Interestingly, only one bracket left us off, and two had us at #7. Without reading all 71 brackets, I wonder if the outliers are predicting the future (e.g. assuming certain events transpire: us losing to LSU or beating Florida) as opposed to looking at the team as it is currently situated. I cannot see how UGA as it stands now can be either out of the tourney or as high as a #7 seed (although, I can make a better case for us being a #7 seed than not making the dance).

Overall, a #10 seed is exactly where I would put us.

I am a fan of the Dawgs, Falcons, and Braves...oh...and tacos, but I like the other three more.

by Jman781 on Mar 1, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions