Alright....first things first. Here is how last weeks game numbers added up:
- Extra Points: 4- Win by 16
- Kickoffs: 6- Win by 10
- Kickoff Yards: 396- Win by 10
- UGA's 3rd Down Conversions: 4- Lose by 1
- Rushing TD's: 0- Lose by 2
- Length of Game: 3:14- Win by 22
- Yards Off Interceptions: 0- Tie
- UGA's 1st Downs: 18- Win by 4
- UGA Total Offense: 380- Win by 9
- Rushing Yards: 128- Win by 2
For those of you keeping score at home, the numbers predicted a win by a TD on average. In reality, we won by two TDs. Alright, who is showing off and messing up my numbers? Oh, our sophomore QB and his go to receivers, most of whom are freshmen. Well then, I guess that's ok.
As for the big game this week, what was important then is important now. As a matter of fact, the top 10 includes the exact same cast of characters as last week, just in a slightly new order. For those of you that think that pessimism works well for Georgia, LSU's numbers will make you feel warm and fuzzy. And since its SEC Championship week I stepped up my game and decided to look a little deeper into the numbers at the end of the article.
First, lets look at how our most important stats line up with what LSU has done this year:
10. Rushing Yards: I was not all too happy to see rushing yards in the top 10 this week. However hard it is to run against us, its even harder to run against LSU. We need 113 rushing yards to win, but LSU has only allowed opponents 86 yards per game. We havent been held under 100 rushing yards yet this year even with our ever changing stable of backs. As a matter of fact we are rushing for 180 yards per game. But the LSU defense is a whole different monster. Time for our boys to channel their inner Herschel Walker and run over people.
9. UGA 1st Downs: We need 16 first downs to win. LSU has allowed a little over 14 first downs each game, giving us a loss by 5. We average almost 22 1st downs per game though and I just dont think LSU can hold us that far below average.
8. Yards after Interceptions: This is my favorite category because unless we run backwards more than 4 yards after an INT, then we still win. LSU is only allowing 1 return yard per game off interceptions, but that still has us winning by 3. Here is a place where we can only help our case.
7. UGA Total Offense: Another stat like 1st downs where they allow very little but we average way above that. We just have to be the team that holds to average. If we give and allow their average of 248 yards per game we lose by 10. If we hold to our average of 424 yards then we win by 16. If we do give some, we have to gain at least 315 yards to have things end well.
6. Length of game: This stat also worries me. There are so many little extras that waste time in a championship game that will extend the total game time. I am also worried that this will become a factor in the game due to neither team's ability to successfully run the ball. Passing makes the game long. Even with the OT game of the century LSU is still sitting below the average time we need to win. Lets just hope its shorter than 3:36
5. Rushing TD's: Even better than yards off interceptions, we literally cannot go wrong here. 0 rushing TD's still has us winning by 1. Every touchdown after that is an extra 12 points! We already knew this, but our ability to run the ball is crucial this weekend.
4. UGA's 3rd Down Conversions: Since this game is going to be a defensive battle, 3rd downs are going to happen. Its what we do with them that counts. Lucky for us we only need 4 conversions to win. For once, LSU is allowing more than needed, but not by much. If we only convert 5 3rd downs that they are allowing per game, we win by a TD.
3. Kickoff Yards- This is where the numbers get scary. We need 318 yards off Walsh's foot. Wait, you tell me LSU is only allowing 185 yards per game? Yeah, that doesnt sound good. As a matter of fact it sounds like an 18 point loss.
2. Kickoffs: And here is why they are allowing so few yards on kickoffs, because no one is getting the chance. After the initial kick to start the half, LSU's opponents are only getting 2 more chances. Yikes. that means that LSU only allows 2 scores per game. We need to make our chances count. I just dont think FG's are going to get the job done.
1. Extra Points: We only need 2 extra points to win this game. Only problem is LSU only allows one per game. Field Goals aren't even in the top 20 in importance, so the key here is going for it on 4th down(if it comes to that). Good thing we have experience converting 4th downs into touchdowns, because we may very well need it on Saturday.
Summary: We need to convert downs, score 2 TD's, and then run the ball and the clock.
So how do these numbers change when they relate to eachother?
Scoring Differential = 68.5+1.9(Extra Points)+4.9(Kickoffs)-.04(Kickoff yards)+2.8(3rd Down Conversions)+3.2(Rushing TDs)-27(Length of game)-.02(Total Offense)
With LSU's averages plugged in it looks like this: -3.7= 68.5+ 1.9(1)+ 4.9(2.92)- .04(184.58)+ 2.8(5.08)+ 3.2(.5)- 27(3.42)- .02(248.42)
Both models are predicting a loss by approximately a FG. Makes me wonder what models the Vegas people are using to have us losing by 2 TDs. For those of you that are betting folks, I can say that my numbers make that betting line look really tempting. Lets hope their kicker catches a case of the Alabama and misses said field goal.
and this week more than ever, GO DAWGS!