Georgia Bulldogs v. LSU Tigers: Too Much Information (Part One)
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 8:47 PM EST
in Georgia Bulldogs Football
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PrintAs you may have heard, the Georgia Bulldogs will be meeting up with the LSU Tigers this Saturday afternoon. Though this confrontation technically has been designated as the SEC Championship Game, the game itself is strictly a formality, a mere precursor to the inevitable coronation that is to follow. We know this because Louisiana State negotiated a much tougher conference slate than Georgia in the significantly superior SEC West.
That, at any rate, is what we have been told. The facts, though, are these, offered as the first installment of a special multi-part SEC Championship Game edition of Too Much Information:
The Bulldogs are 7-1 in conference play. The Bayou Bengals are 8-0 in conference play.
Six of Georgia’s eight league games were against the Auburn Tigers, Florida Gators, Kentucky Wildcats, Mississippi Rebels, Mississippi St. Bulldogs, and Tennessee Volunteers, against whom the Red and Black were 6-0. Six of Louisiana State’s eight league games were against those same six teams, against whom the Tigers were 6-0.
Among the SEC opponents Georgia and LSU do not have in common, the Alabama Crimson Tide were the tougher of the two the Bayou Bengals faced and the South Carolina Gamecocks were the tougher of the two the Bulldogs faced. Louisiana State generally was outplayed by the Tide on the road, yet the Tigers won by three. Georgia generally outplayed the Gamecocks at home, yet the ‘Dawgs lost by three. Improbable oddities unlikely to be duplicated typified both contests, each of which easily could’ve gone the other way without anyone conscientiously being able to claim that the weaker performer won; change any one of several pivotal plays in each game, and it could be Georgia sporting the 8-0 league ledger.
Among the SEC opponents Georgia and LSU do not have in common, the Arkansas Razorbacks were the weaker of the two the Bayou Bengals faced and the Vanderbilt Commodores were the weaker of the two the Bulldogs faced. On paper, the Hogs were a lot better than the ‘Dores . . . but, on the field on October 29, Arkansas was only three points better than Vandy, so what appeared on paper may not have been altogether accurate.
Accordingly, in SEC play, Georgia and Louisiana State each faced eight teams, three-fourths of whom were identical, and against whom the Bulldogs and the Tigers attained identical records; Georgia lost by three points to its toughest conference competitor in a game the Bulldogs probably should have won, while LSU won by three points over its toughest conference competitor in a game the Tigers probably should have lost; Georgia’s and LSU’s remaining league games were against teams who played one another within a field goal.
In conference games only against those exceedingly comparable SEC schedules, LSU finished the regular season ranked second in the league in total defense, and Georgia finished ranked third. Likewise, through eight conference games apiece, the Bulldogs ranked second in the SEC in total offense, while the Tigers ranked fourth.
I’m just sayin’.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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just out of curiosity
and because I couldn’t find it, does anybody know what the line in 2005 was?
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 8:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't know, . . .
. . . but wouldn’t Phil Steele have that?
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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This might be forthcoming in Part 2...
… so I apologize if I’m stealing your thunder, but the place where LSU’s schedule gets so much better than Georgia’s is out-of-conference opponents.
LSU thoroughly outplayed an Oregon team that is ranked in the top 10 at the end of the year and who will be the inaugural Pac-12 champions. They also took an away trip to Morgantown, and while West Virginia aren’t world-beaters this year, they’re still decent, and they still play in one of the most intimidating venues in all of college football.
By comparison, Georgia lost (in a game that was a no-win scenario to begin with) to a Boise State team that has not been nearly as dominant as in years past, and who won’t win their inaugural season in the Mountain West Conference. (This also lends credence to the naysayers who claimed that Boise was never as good as they looked the whole time.) Georgia’s other major out-of-conference game was played against Georgia Tech, who have a decent team, but whose home field is practically a home game for us.
There’s a much more convincing argument to be made that Alabama’s schedule was comparable to Georgia’s. LSU’s, in my opinion, was clearly better.
If this LSU team ends up going 14-0 against their schedule (especially if they have to rematch with the Tide), it will be one of the greatest feats ever achieved by a college football team.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
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Oregon is always better than Boise State, except when they play each other.
That wasn’t my point. That’s why I specifically looked only at conference games when comparing statistics. Georgia and LSU faced very comparable SEC schedules, and performed very comparably against them.
Is Oregon better than Boise State? Is West Virginia better than Georgia Tech? I don’t know, and we have very little basis for comparison. A win over Ole Miss is a win over Ole Miss, though, and Georgia and LSU were similarly statistically dominant in highly similar eight-game conference slates. That’s all I’m saying.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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I don't completely agree.
Although you’re facing mostly the same personnel, a win against Ole Miss (or any SEC team) is not the same whether it occurred in Week 1 or Week 12. There are issues of injuries, venue, whether they’re coming off a bye week, and other factors that make each game unique.
Common conference opponents are more alike than out-of-conference schedules, but I don’t think they’re so alike that they’re equivalent for the purposes of comparison.
And as comparisons go, beating Oregon in a truly neutral venue does count for more, in my book, than losing to Boise State in what was essentially a home game. And LSU had never before traveled to Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, which I think we can all agree is an intimidating venue, while Georgia had to travel to Grant Field (etc. etc.), which is practically a second home field for us under Mark Richt.
I’m not saying Georgia’s schedule was a cake walk… I’m just saying LSU had the more difficult road.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
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by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not arguing that they didn't.
I’m just attempting to counter what seems to be the media consensus that the Tigers outperformed the Bulldogs by leaps and bounds against a markedly tougher SEC slate. LSU legitimately is the No. 1 team in the country, but what they did in the SEC wasn’t dramatically more impressive than what Georgia did in the same conference, against largely the same league schedule.
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Ah, well, in that case...
… we’re in violent agreement. :-)
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by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But if you have the week 1 or week 12 comment
wouldn’t Boise, being a veteran team that they are, be more likely to start strong than an Oregon team that is replacing several starters from last year’s team?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 30, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
inflated schedule
Alright lets be honest here it was clear that Oregon was overrated after they played LSU. If it wasn’t obvious after than game it became very clear after they lost to an unranked USC. West Virgina was also a mediocre team at best. They are barely in the top 25, had a 8-3 season, and lost to both Louisville and Syracuse. Their record doesn’t look much better than Tech’s so to say that LSU had really hard away games is pretty absurd. Georgia played GTech and Boise State. Our two loses were to what I consider top ten teams while we had several big injuries and were a VERY freshman based team so don’t give LSU credit where it isn’t due.
by NateDawg122 on Nov 30, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
"An unranked USC??"
You realize SC is on probation, right, and therefore prohibited from being ranked in the BCS (and any polls that make up the BCS)?
If they were not on probation, the Trojans would probably be ranked higher than Georgia in the BCS. They are already ranked above us in the AP poll.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
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by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
Saying that Alabama outplayed LSU is a wee bit generous
LSU outrushed the Tide, and while Bama made up the difference with passing, they never even got inside LSU’s 20. The yards-per-play difference was less than a yard. And once the game hit overtime, Bama went backwards while LSU immediately drove the ball inside the 10-yard line.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
If it's generous, it's only by "a wee bit."
If Alabama’s placekicker had had a better day, the Tide would have won. That’s simply a fact.
The point is that Georgia and LSU performed comparably across nearly identical SEC slates, and comparably in the toughest games on those slates. The suggestion that Louisiana State has done something dramatically more impressive than, or even dramatically different from, what Georgia did over the course of their respective eight-game SEC schedules simply is not supported by the facts. That’s all I’m saying.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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If Alabama's offense could have given him more chances inside of 40 yards, that might have helped too.
A lot of kickers would miss kicks of 44, 50 and 52 yards. So no, I don’t think it’s quite that simple.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry, I'm a Georgia fan.
I’m used to having competent placekickers.
You’re arguing small distinctions, which pretty much proves my point. Let me try to make it even easier for you:
Any game you win by three points is a game you easily could’ve lost. Any game you lose by three points is a game you easily could’ve won.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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See how I didn't make a Billy Bennett joke?
Don’t get me wrong, I fully understand that. But there’s been a narrative within the punditry that LSU kind of stumbled into victory there, and it really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. Both teams made their mistakes, but LSU made the plays that mattered, when they mattered most, whether it was forcing defensive stops and making the Tide settle for long field goals, or coming up with points on offense when they needed it.
I think the overtime period said it all. Alabama went backwards, and LSU immediately drove inside the 10 to get the game-winner.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
"immediately drove inside the 10"
from the 25 no less…
Bama’s play calling hurt them in OT. They probably could’ve made that 42 yard FG to start OT. They made some mistakes at the worst time. Combine that with the missed FG’s in regulation and it’s pretty easy to see that Bama should’ve won that game.
They may’ve been long FGs, but they were makeable. And when you hold the other team to 6 points (on two field goals) and they hold you to 6 points (on two field goals and some missed field goals) then you probably should’ve made your kicks and won. Bama’s D performed well enough to win them the game. Bama had a much better shot at winning the game in regulation than LSU did. In fact, if they used NFL OT rules, Bama still would’ve had a great chance to win since LSU likely wouldn’t have started their possession in FG range.
The simple fact of the matter is: Bama easily could’ve won that game. Settling for long FGs is tough, but they had the opportunity to win it in regulation if they just make one more kick.
by DocSkraynj on Nov 29, 2011 10:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"Should've?"
Please.
Bama’s kickers were like 2 for 8 or 10 outside of 40 on the SEASON. They have shaky kickers. They probably would have been better off punting and playing field position instead of even trying kicks from 44 and longer. Sure, they could’ve won. Pigs could’ve flown. They didn’t.
LSU made their own mistakes as well, but they made the plays that counted, when they mattered. Bama didn’t. Period.
As for the overtime bit, Bama started at the 25 too. And went backwards. LSU didn’t.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I conceded that they did poorly in OT.
But… they missed 3 field goals in regulation. Making one of those would’ve won them the game. That qualifies as “should’ve” in my book. Elite teams have reliable kickers. Bama had a very good chance to win that game.
And all I was saying about that the starting from the 25 is… driving to the 10 is much more impressive when you have to go more than 15 yards to accomplish that. That’s important to note because, while LSU gained 10 or 15 yards on some other drives, other than the interception return to the Bama 15 (which lead to a chip shot FG), they didn’t even get to the 25 a single time all night.
LSU’s offense was completely shut down and benefited significantly from going to OT.
So Bama's not an elite team then?
Because they certainly don’t have a reliable kicker. And neither does Georgia, at least this season. Saying players that have been unreliable all season should have suddenly become reliable magically all night is stretching the term “should’ve.” And that’s diplomatic.
And yeah, LSU’s offense did struggle. So did Bama’s. LSU’s made the plays that mattered. Period.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not exactly sure what your point is.
I haven’t argued that LSU didn’t make plays when it mattered (like a pick that set them up for a FG that they may not have gotten otherwise). They also got those 10 or 15 yards in OT. Good for them.
But if Bama’s kicker misses 2 kicks instead of 3 (doesn’t even have to be THAT reliable for that to be the case), they likely win. He also could’ve maybe his that one in OT. Instead he missed 4 FG’s on the day. You don’t have to be that reliable to do better than 2/6 anyway. If McCarron doesn’t throw that pick that gets returned all the way to 15 and gives LSU an easy FG, Bama likely wins. If the refs decided that Eric Reid shared possession with that receiver on the interception, then the offense keeps the ball and Bama either scores a TD or kicks a short FG (hopefuly making that one) and wins the game. I mean… that ball was at LSU’s 1. It was thrown by wide receiver. I honestly agreed with the call of an interception, but it was incredibly close to being shared possession (and the offense keeping the ball).
So, LSU made plays and won, but they really did benefit greatly from the game going to OT. LSU had one drive that I’d forgotten about earlier that got them a FG right before the half.
Other than that drive, (which came after Bama finally made a FG), going to OT and the interception return gave LSU their other 2 field goal opportunities. So, missing field goals instead of punting didn’t really hurt Bama (outside of the obvious lack of points).
So, like our game with South Carolina, it’s hard to say that Bama’s own mistakes didn’t cost them the game. LSU made plays, yes. But they very easily could’ve lost. 2/6 is a bad night for a kicker. 3/6 and they may’ve won. 3/5 and they almost definitely would’ve won.
And for the record...
I’m not even trying to be particularly argumentative or confrontational.
But I’m sick, so my apologies if I’m coming across that way.
Not to mention an interception by Bama that got returned to their 4 yrd line only to be called back for a penalty.
They made the plays in OT. We didn’t. But yes, we could have and should have won. With that said, we didn’t and thats that. However, I don’t think a rematch will look at all like the first game. One of us will pull out a decisive win by at least 10 points. History of rematches say so.
Ummm
You don’t have to be that reliable to do better than 2/6 anyway.
Haven’t we already established that being better than 2/6 would be an improvement for Bama’s kickers?
From Billy…
Bama’s kickers were like 2 for 8 or 10 outside of 40 on the SEASON
If you are arguing that LSU was lucky because Bama should’ve made those kicks, the statistics don’t agree. Had Bama made those kicks, I can confidently say that Bama was lucky to win that game based on their prior FG %.
2011 LSU Accolades:
"Les has charm. Petrino has none." -Pat Forde, Yahoo Sports
"Saban thoroughly outcoached by Miles" -Jen Engel, Fox Sports
"I really like corndogs" -Sparky
"Imperial Intergalactic Overlord Barkevious Mingo" -Andy Staples, SI
"If Alabama's defense is a boa constrictor, slowly sucking the life out of opposing offenses, LSU's is more like a goon that throws the offense into a burlap sack and starts beating it with a stick." -Matt Hinton, Dr. Saturday
"Oregon’s Chip Kelly is generally considered a coaching mastermind. Miles toyed with him here Saturday night." -Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports
"I don’t want to say that I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson…..but I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson." -Les Miles
Statistics don't appear to be your strong suit.
The 2 Bama made were less than 40 yards and should be excluded from the calculation. Therefore, if you take the 2 out of 8 stat that would dictate that Bama should have made at least one of those 40+ yard FGs.
Sorry if his comes off harsh.
Ah, gotcha
Still, with a sample size of 4 misses (really, 3 misses and one block) you are still within an average performance for their kickers.
As in, if they only make 25% of their kicks over 40 yds, going 0/3 in a game isn’t a statistical anomaly…
2011 LSU Accolades:
"Les has charm. Petrino has none." -Pat Forde, Yahoo Sports
"Saban thoroughly outcoached by Miles" -Jen Engel, Fox Sports
"I really like corndogs" -Sparky
"Imperial Intergalactic Overlord Barkevious Mingo" -Andy Staples, SI
"If Alabama's defense is a boa constrictor, slowly sucking the life out of opposing offenses, LSU's is more like a goon that throws the offense into a burlap sack and starts beating it with a stick." -Matt Hinton, Dr. Saturday
"Oregon’s Chip Kelly is generally considered a coaching mastermind. Miles toyed with him here Saturday night." -Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports
"I don’t want to say that I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson…..but I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson." -Les Miles
Well
it also wouldn’t hold up if the 2 for 10 stat is the true one. I don’t know and it feels tedious to look up the real stat because I am lazy. You’d also have to figure out if any of the other missed field goals during the season were blocked but again, I’m lazy.
The fact of the matter is Bama has a crappy distance kicker which cost them the game. :)
And the rereading the title of my last post, it came off a lot more harsh than intended. Sorry about that once again.
Period! Exclamation mark.
Usually when advocates of a position end their argument with “period,” they don’t believe in the argument they just made. It’s a sign of weakness, sort of like using the word “certainly” too frequently.
by WindyCityDawg on Nov 30, 2011 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How about if one makes those Victor Borge punctuation noises instead?
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Automatic victory in argument
A little known late game rhetorical tactic is to make just the noise you describe. It results in automatic victory. You’ve betrayed the greatest lawyer secret of them all vineyarddawg.
by WindyCityDawg on Nov 30, 2011 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough, Billy.
You got me with the “narrative within the punditry” point; since I’m trying to counter one such narrative, I have to concede your point that I inadvertently relied upon another such narrative. (I saw very little of the Alabama-LSU game, being much more interested in the Arkansas-South Carolina game, for obvious reasons.)
LSU certainly earned its win over Alabama, as South Carolina certainly earned its win over Georgia. Due to the closeness of the contests, though, both could’ve gone the other way. Such are the minuscule margins for error separating the great from the merely good, a fact that provides this Georgia fan at least a measure of hope regarding Saturday.
Yeah, we could be in for a repeat of 2003, but we also could be in for a repeat of 2005 (in result, not in margin). Either way, I’m just glad we’re back to Georgia and LSU squaring off in the Dome instead of all that ’90s-retro Alabama-Florida nonsense! :)
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
Not directing this at Billy...
To the LSU fans who do discount UGA and feel LSU is vastly superior to us: if we do win, please don’t try to use us as a quality loss when arguing why you should still be in the mNC game.
Either give us credit as a tough opponent playing much better than when we were 0-2 or don’t; however, if you feel we’re lucky and only in the SEC championship game due to a weak schedule, compiling dominant stats against pitiful offenses, and, thus, don’t belong on the same field as the Tigers, please say you lost to the same “weak” team if we do win.
GATA!
by Jman781 on Nov 30, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LSU fan here
I haven’t heard many lsu fans spout that UGA had a weak schedule and that you don’t deserve to be in the SEC CG.
I do think that further up this post, you guys make light of the fact that bama and arkansas are better than SC or Vandy. Bama and Arky aren’t just a little better than those two, they are significantly better.
But UGA won the games they played and deserve to represent the east.
Alabama is 11-1. South Carolina is 10-2. That's one game better.
Arkansas and Vanderbilt played one another. Arkansas won by three points. That’s three points better.
I disagree that a one-game difference in the standings and a three-point difference in a game constitutes a significance difference.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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Seriously?
Boy, you are doing some cherry picking today.
In the six common SEC games referenced in the OP, LSU won by 186 total points- UGA won by 87, and that includes a performance against Auburn that looks like a statistical outlier since the other five averaged a single-digit MOV. UGA is about as good as Arkansas (better defense, weaker offense) and should expect a slightly lower-scoring but still-dominant beating from LSU.
As far as the whole Bama vs. USC argument, you must be joking. USCe lost to both Arkansas and Auburn, and barely squeaked by Florida and Bully. Alabama curbstomped all of those, and beat Tennessee and Vandy in much more dominating fashion (65 points vs. 29).
But hey, the LSU folks have been telling me all week how all wins count the same regardless of MOV when determining who the best teams are, so carry on.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
I'm getting that accusation a lot lately.
I suppose we will have to agree to disagree whether the difference between 11-1 and 10-2 is one game, and whether the difference between 31 and 28 is three points.
As statistical outliers go, trying looking at box scores. Georgia dominated every one of its SEC victories on the field, with the sole exception of Vanderbilt. There’s your outlier.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
Define dominate.
I am not about to dig into every single game’s box score, but this provides a nice comparison. Note the proximity between Arkansas and UGA.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Look at the box scores.
Compare yards of total offense, first downs, turnovers, and time of possession, and see if you’re surprised Georgia didn’t win by more in most of those games.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
J Tadpole, you are a typical ESPN type follower
UGA was in cruise control in the second half, and most certainly the 4th quarter, in many of it’s games. Unlike, say, Bama, we didnt feel the need to run up the score when the game was in hand. UGA easily could have scored more in many of it’s games. Picking scores without looking at the the other facets of a game is the definition of “cherry picking.”
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
Run up the score?
Bama had evey chance to run up the score and didn’t.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Leaving Alabama aside, . . .
. . . tankertoad is right about Georgia. The Bulldogs were in cruise control in the second half of most of those games, which is maddening, because it sometimes produces tight ballgames like the one at Vanderbilt. The point is that, when you look at box scores from Georgia’s victories, the impression you come away with is that the Bulldogs should’ve won nine of their last ten games by margins comparable to that by which they beat Auburn, not that the margin in the Auburn game was some sort of fluke.
Could that tendency come back to bite Georgia in a big way against a team like LSU? Absolutely, but the idea that Georgia wasn’t an extremely solid team in 2011 is simply false.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
Extremely solid? Yes.
LSU is great.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
No one has ever denied that.
The popular portrayal of Georgia as some minor nuisance that backed into the championship game is an erroneous perception I am attempting to combat.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
See, I'm not sure it's a slap at UGA
as much as everybody just thinks LSU is that damn good.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Well, obviously I'm not privy to the conversations.
From my view, UGA is a pretty good team that is in a dead heat with Arkansas for third in the conference. I don’t expect you to be terribly competitive on Saturday but would fully expect you to represent the conference well against a Kansas State/Penn State type in the Cotton or Cap One.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
If we score 6 or more pts, will we be at least as competitive as you were?
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Dec 1, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not if you give up 27 as I expect.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
For what?
I figure 27-13 or so sounds about right.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
It's amazing
how quick Bama fans are to knock USCe for a three point loss to Arkansas but tout their loss of ONLY 3 points to LSU. Who wants to talk about cherry picking now?
Arkansas beat USCe 44-28.
South Carolina lost by three to Auburn. If you really think that compares to an OT loss to LSU then I can’t help you.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Well, we can't help you either. See, we won our division and will play the team you lost to for the crown.
I really don’t give a damn anymore about Bama and your arguments – accept the reality you didnt win your division, nor your conference.
Score a TD next time. We met our goal of getting to Atlanta. If we score just one TD against LSU, that is one more than you did, and we happen to also have a good D, oh, and we have a great FG kicker.
Enjoy watching us play Sat.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
I will enjoy it.
And congrats on winning your division. Somebody had to.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
True, as someone had to win the West, as well.
Pick any two SEC teams from opposite divisions, and three-fourths of their conference schedules will be identical. The West is stronger than the East at the moment, but that doesn’t mean any given Western Division team played a markedly tougher conference schedule than any given Eastern Division team.
I would be appreciative if fans of Alabama, which went 7-1 in SEC play, would give a little more credit to Georgia, which went 7-1 in SEC play.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
I was just being a prick
because he was.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Actually, you started this with the "cherry picking" bit.
Be careful whom you are calling a prick. In fact, don’t use words like that anymore.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
If we can all agree not to be jerks, . . .
. . . I’m perfectly willing to proceed to have a civil disagreement based upon that common understanding.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
Sorry,
read the Arkansas Vandy score as Arkansas USC. That’s my bad.
For what it's worth
I completely agree you. In fact, I kind of ranted about this in another thread on this site. Some people want to criticize us for having an “easy” road to the SEC championship game. But as I texted a friend the other night, the “who did Georgia play?” argument loses a great deal of merit when the answer is “6 of the same teams that LSU played”
And although it isn’t pertinent to this point, 2 of the 4 out of conference games UGA and LSU played were against cupcakes. So 8 of 12 our regular season games were against virtually (in most cases, literally) the same competition as LSU’s.
by MDDawg on Nov 29, 2011 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well there's also the non-conference games.
LSU also played 2 probable conference champions in Oregon and WVU, both away from home.
While I DO think it’s worth noting that Georgia went 2-2 against winning teams compared to 5-0 for LSU, saying Georgia didn’t play anybody certainly isn’t fair — and you won’t hear me say it. Winning 10 games in this conference (especially 10 in a row) is always tough, even when the conference is a little down (or a little top-heavy).
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
LSU’s schedule was harder, and they were more successful with it, but their isn’t a night and day kind of difference between the two teams’ schedules.
Not at all.
The SEC was kind of a top-heavy mediocre mess this season. LSU caught the tougher end of it, but that doesn’t demean Georgia’s season in my eyes at all.
Writer (and a handsome one at that),
And the Valley Shook
by Billy Gomila on Nov 29, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
That's pretty much my point.
I take nothing away from LSU’s achievement, a fact I trust is reflected on my BlogPoll and SEC Power Poll ballots. I just don’t think it’s fair to take away from Georgia’s achievement. The Tigers are every bit as good as everyone says. The Bulldogs are a good deal better than they’re getting credit for being.
Thanks, Billy.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
When taking issue with one of Billy's
Co-admins at ATVS demeaning UGA and our schedule on Team Speed Kills, Billy succinctly told me to “grow up.”
Surely, at least after reading through this comment thread, he can see why us UGA fans take umbrage with the apparent need for some LSU fans to bash UGA, instead of talking up LSU. What purpose does it serve?
Yes, LSU is better, and, honestly, the best team in the country, but UGA isn’t as far behind the Tigers as some want to believe.
GATA!
Going against the conventional wisdom...
I somewhat expect Les Miles to revert to his Mad Hatter past and pull something weird and crazy on offense against Georgia. Every writer I’ve read as well as CMR says LSU does not try anything tricky- they just line up and come at you, again and again, until they wear you down. Meanwhile, you can’t move against them, then, you screw up somewhere, throw an INT or give up a big return, and they keep applying the offensive pressure. This approach barely got them a win against Bama, who threw the INT on an amazing play by Eric Reid, then Brad Wing punted the ball “a hundred thousand miles,” to quote someone we all revere. Les is much smarter than he sounds, God love him, and he must realize that the Dawgs have the capability to stuff his rushing attack, at least for one half. Jordan Jefferson doesn’t pass all that well, even without Jarvis Jones in his face. So why would Les not draw up some kind of Bumerooski type of play to throw out on the first series and see what happens?
"Let us cross over the river and rest under the shade of the trees." Thomas J. Jackson
PLEASE listen to the podcast tomorrow. ) We talk just about this.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
Will do
"Let us cross over the river and rest under the shade of the trees." Thomas J. Jackson
by Dr. Morpheus on Nov 30, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
He hasn't gone Mad Hatter
because he hasn’t needed to this year. Aside from Bama, none of their games have been close enough to him to pull a rabbit out the hat.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Bama likely wouldn't be as susceptible to a trick play either.
Let’s not forget we let a DE score on a fake punt against South Carolina, let a TE throw the only TD pass against Auburn, etc. We’ve given up deep bombs on trick plays and even let Ole Miss score on a trick play.
If the Mad Hatter thinks our defense will slow his offense down (or finds out that we can stop them once the game starts), there’s no reason for him to NOT use the sort of trickery for which he is best known. If I were him, I’d be eager to do so, at least on special teams. If you have an inept offense and are going against one of the best defenses in the league, a few breaks could win the game for you. Those kinds of plays have hurt us all year, so they could be easy points and/or yards for a team that’s famous for those kinds of plays. Especially if they haven’t used them all year and no one expects them.
by DocSkraynj on Nov 29, 2011 10:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
If you can stop the run you have a chance. But if the UGA defense isn't disciplined on the run and QB sprints then your in trouble.
Sell out to the run and contain the QB. Thats how we did it.
That's how we've played all year.
hence the combined 12 rushing yards tennesee, florida, and auburn had against us.
I have a LOT of faith in our rush D against LSU.
I saw an interesting break down
of how fortuitous this season has been for LSU’s pass defense.
Yhey faced 3 QB’s who were starting for the first time (Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn), a fourth came in in relief for his first game of the year (Ole Miss), another was later benched because he was awful (Kentucky). They gave up 20 more passing yards to Oregon than the ducks averaged the rest of the year, they have up 463 passing yards to WVU though the Mountaineers average 351. McCarron and Bama met their average of 200 passing per game. Tyler Wilson was 14/22 for 207 but got sacked 5 times. Relf was the other SEC QB they faced. He went 11/17 for 96 yards (5.6 per) and a pick. Against us he went 19/31 for 157 (5.1 per) and 2 picks.
The other games were Northwestern State and Western Kentucky.
If we can protect Murray, it’ll be a much different game than people expect. LSU has a been weaker against the run in conference competition (I think that’s right…). And we were ranked above them nationally until the tech game. And they haven’t faced a team that is run-only with a weird scheme like the NATS.
We should be able to throw on these guys if we keep Murray upright. They’re a good pass defense, but they may not be quite as good as they appear to be.
by DocSkraynj on Nov 29, 2011 10:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Gonna assume the lack of a response to this is because I misspelled "They."
Which is understandable.
and "have" instead of "gave"...
these are uncharacteristic mistakes, but I’m all doped up on cold medicine.
forgive my mistakes.
Yep, yep.
On this week’s “Dawg Report” they showed a graphic of how much worse LSU beat our common opponents than we did. What was missing from the graphic and missing from the games with LSU were Bray and Brantley and an AU QB with any experience (and we still hammered Auburn worse than anyone else did).
Editorial Staff, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
@NCThom
Go 'Dawgs!
by NCT on Nov 30, 2011 12:53 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks...
to you and T. Kyle for the factoids. I’ve always thought head to head comparisons are over-rated—Team A beating Team C worse than Team B beat Team C does not at all mean Team A will beat Team B. But if Teams A and B have similar records against common opponents, that does generally mean the teams are mutually competitive. And I think your info gets to the even larger point: it’s the match-up of Team A’s particular O v. Team B’s particular D and vice-versa, plus each ST v the other, that truly matter. That’s why it matters A LOT if Crowell plays healthy and well; Murray is then more likely to have a great day passing, and UGA is then more likely to win.
I note here that much of the commentator and fan discussion has focused on whether the UGA O can score points on the LSU D. I believe the answer is “yes,” but don’t look to break 20. So I trust that our coaches and players are at least equally concerned about the LSU O, which has been prolific, the Bama game notwithstanding. Coach G has his work cut out for him. Our front 7 will be challenged in a way they haven’t been since perhaps the Carolina game. Will be a tall order to hold them to less than 20, but I believe that will be necessary for a Dawg upset.
by Chickasaw on Nov 30, 2011 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I am freaking tired of talking about Bama. We got LSU to to play. Bama can hang up and listen.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Nov 29, 2011 11:14 PM EST reply actions 9 recs
the Bama'ers are just
trying to make themselves feel relevant. I am just refusing to feed the Trolling Tide
And to Hell with gatech
by Dawg2011 on Nov 30, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Schedule's are very close.
When you look at the average rank of offense and defense that each team has played they are almost identical. Using a rank of 120 for the 1AA teams each school played the average offense Georgia faced was ranked 84.33 in the nation. For LSU it was it was 79.67. Doing the same thing for the defenses Georgia faced an average of 51.83 and LSU an average rank of 51.58. That doesn’t tell the entire story but it does add to what Kyle said about the schedules not being that far apart.
by dawgfan17 on Nov 30, 2011 6:11 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
On a completely unrelated note
But still worth pointing out: Fred Birchmore turned 100 yesterday.
Also of note: No matter what you’ve done in life, Fred Birchmore is more bad-a** than you.
by RJohn on Nov 30, 2011 8:49 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I saw the bicycle he rode around the world...
…in the Smithsonian Institute when I was a kid (which wasn’t recently). He lives at the end of the street I grew up on.
"Let us cross over the river and rest under the shade of the trees." Thomas J. Jackson
by Dr. Morpheus on Nov 30, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm wondering
what is the degree of difference between UGA’s 72.15 and LSU’s 74.91? Is it like the Richter scale or pH levels? Or is there less of a difference?
Back off, man. I'm a scientist.
by Droz on Nov 30, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm pickin' up what you're puttin' down, Kyle
But I still think the back up scenario of a batch of bad shrimp being delivered to the LSU pregame meal is our best chance.
Back off, man. I'm a scientist.
by Droz on Nov 30, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
They're from Louisiana...
… better make it a batch of bad crawfish.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
common opponents
points
for against for against
msu 19 6 24 10
uk 35 7 19 10
ufla 41 11 24 20
ut 37 7 20 12
aub 45 10 45 7
olemiss 52 3 27 13
total 229 44 159 72
While points are the most important...
If you look at yardage totals, etc., we are probably much closer against common opponents.
Look at Ole Miss: our ST were atrocious that day. Make the three missed FGs and don’t give up the TD return, and the score is now 36-7, same can be said about the MSU game, etc.
The difference, to me, between LSU and UGA: they are dominant every game in all three facets of the game. LSU is ready to play each and every Saturday; it’s extremely impressive. We have rarely played soundly in all three areas in any one game (see: Auburn game for what happens when we put it all together). If—and, admittedly, this is a big “if”—we play well in all three areas on Saturday, there’s no reason we can’t keep the game close and even win.
GATA!
by Jman781 on Nov 30, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
We also have ran out the 4th Q in quite a few games because we didn't want to hurt Petrino's feelings.
We could have scored more in several games. Not CMR’s style.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Nov 30, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Look at the Auburn game...
We completed two passes in the second half. Two. We still beat them 10-0.
GATA!
This is Interesting...
but as I said above, I don’t think head to head point total comparisons mean much. There’s too many specific game dynamics that they don’t take into account, such as player availability, turnovers, player attitude in the given game, whether the winning coach has foot on accelerator or brakes in 4th Q, even the weather. The number of Ws clearly does matter, and the specific personnel match ups clearly matter.
All said, I’m sure that Todd Grantham and company are very aware that LSU has put up a lot of points, and that UGA is unlikely to win if LSU does the same this weekend. You gotta respect those tough, strong RBs and the great OL. As ever, this game will be won or lost right there in the trenches.
by Chickasaw on Nov 30, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Is there any other explanation...
…for the large discrepancy in rush defense shown in your chart? Allowing common opponents less than a yard per rush whereas LSU allowed almost 3 makes our D look like world-beaters. I wonder, were there some explosive outliers that bloated that number in those games for LSU? I’m thinking something along the lines of the Melvin Ingram fake punt…
in the end, it doesn't matter what georgia has done to the same opponents as lsu
all that matters is that on saturday, georgia had better be able to run the ball…. otherwise lsu will take georgia to the woodshed. Yes georgia is more balanced than any team that lsu has faced thus far…. But lsu is on another level than georgia. and will be for the forseeable future.
Well, I was following along until this:
But lsu is on another level than georgia. and will be for the forseeable future.
Troll harder! Let me give you some tidbits, when you create an account and make a first post with a line like that, at least use some proper grammar. You got to troll smart, as well as hard.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
I guess we should feel flattered...
This is epic trolling.
Creating an entire profile simply to troll on another team’s blog?
As an LSU fan, you’d think he/she would want to go to ATVS first and say, “Geaux Tigers! I’m new here, and I can’t wait to kill the Dawgs on Saturday.”
Instead, his or her maiden voyage consisted of this garbage.
Truly, we’re flattered.
GATA!
It happens
we had Auburn fans, with Auburn names, who weren’t members of the Auburn SBNation site, just dawgsports.
Trolls gonna troll.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Conference vs. Non-conference rushing offense
I noticed that UGA leads the league in rushing attempts in SEC games (366), but then is last in atttempts in non-conference games. It’s about a ten carry per game difference. Not necessarily anything to be gleaned there, but any thoughts as to why?
FWIW, LSU is second to UGA with 355 att in SEC games (about 1.5 att per game less than UGA), and LSU is tied with USC for first with 174 in non-conference games for virtually the same number of attempts per game.
Easy
1. Boise State: We were behind and had to throw more. 31 attempts.
2. Coastal Carolina: 47 attempts. To be expected in a game like this.
3. NMSU: We didn’t have many healthy RBs. Thus, we threw. A lot. 37 attempts.
4. GT: Similar to #3. 28 attempts.
Contrast with games where we had healthy backs and were up a bunch: Auburn 56 attempts, Miss. State 49 attempts, Ole Miss 56 attempts, etc.
GATA!
You got the data, but it verified what I said, OOC cupcakes.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
You're more concise than I am...
I was 80% done with my comment when I saw your comment pop up. I finished the drill anyway!
GATA!
But I was talking out my backside without data, lol. Just figured it had to be. /goodtesttakerftw
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
To clarify...
My attempts are rushing attempts, of course, I doubt anyone would recall us throwing 56 times against Auburn.
GATA!
Got it
I saw the attempts drop so much for non-conference games where you would expect a lot less throwing which piqued my curiosity. As I’m catching up on my UGA knowledge, I’ve see some references to RB issues. Is it depth drop off or has everybody gotten hurt? Both? Neither?
by haveagreatday on Nov 30, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Were do we begin....
We lost two starting RBs in August due to personal issues. Issues like, they had a chip on their shoulder to big to run with. Richard Samuel was moved to RB and got hurt about 4 weeks ago or so for the season. One game, our trio of starting RBs were suspended for one game. Carlton Thomas was suspended for one game a few weeks ago, and a few weeks ago Freshman starter Isiah Crowell got hurt and has been out for two games.
Damn, when I write it all out like that, it sounds horrible.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
Here's a quick rundown for you...
Last year’s top two backs, C. King and Ealey, did not return this year, the former for academic reasons, the latter for being a baby (or something like that; he was dismissed.)
That left this list of RBs coming into the season: Crowell, Samuel (a converted RB, converted to LB, converted back to RB), Thomas (leading remaining rusher from last year, but that’s not saying much), Malcome (redshirt freshman), Harton (walk-on), Karempelis (walk-on).
Crowell is our stud, but he, along with Thomas and Malcome, have missed time due to suspensions, most notably in the NMSU game. Crowell has been hurt recently and Samuel is out for the regular season (injured in a gutsy performance in the Florida game).
Thus, we’ve had many games with Harton, once again a walk-on, who’s also tiny, running the show.
Finally, we’ve used our corners, Smith and Boykin, as backs at times.
It’s amazing what we’ve done considering the above, but this would explain the odd numbers in some games, like NMSU and GT (haven’t looked at Kentucky stats).
P.S. Damn you tankertoad. I see your post. I don’t care. I’m clicking “Post” now!
GATA!
woof. That would give me a terrible case of the what-ifs.
That also explains a dearth of running when you would expect it. Here’s to hoping nobody gets hurt this weekend.
One quick point of order – I am sorry to hear of Samuel’s injury, but noteworthy performances in Florida games are known as “gusty”
by haveagreatday on Nov 30, 2011 6:16 PM EST up reply actions
Off topic...
You guys really have a great site. I love the LSU blog, and the bama guys do a good job, but T Kyle and the rest of your writers do a fantastic job.
Looking forward to a great game.
A compliment is never off topic!
Seriously, however, many thanks and please continue to come by. Bring your friends as well. )
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
Thanks, Zandor435.
We’re glad to have y’all around.
Seriously, after the 2001-2005 stretch, I’m glad we got back to the game in a year the Bayou Bengals are there, as well. It’s like the natural order of the early Mark Richt era has been restored!
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
The weakest competition in the east division in decades, no doubt.
Mark Richt owes every other team in the SEC East a big thank you.
Thanks my jealous Bama friend, and for this post, I have this for you:
Try and score a TD next time.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
"In decades"? Really?
South Carolina won ten games. Florida is going to a bowl game. Vanderbilt is going to a bowl game. Georgia and LSU played virtually identical SEC slates. Three of Georgia’s eight conference games were against the West; three of Alabama’s and LSU’s eight games were against the East. The West also featured the worst team in the conference (Ole Miss), a pair of mediocre teams (Auburn and Mississippi State), and a vastly overrated team (Arkansas).
That leaves two good teams in the West and two good teams in the East. “The weakest competition in the east division in decades, no doubt”? You’re being silly. There’s considerable doubt.
Incidentally, why all the Georgia hate from the Alabama faithful? Y’all seem to have something against us, and I really don’t why. What did we ever do to you?
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
I really think it's a 1965 flea-flicker thing.
(Yeah, the knee was down… wha’chu gonna do about it??)
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
Here you are burmbuster...It sounds like you need a case of this.
2011 LSU Accolades:
"Les has charm. Petrino has none." -Pat Forde, Yahoo Sports
"Saban thoroughly outcoached by Miles" -Jen Engel, Fox Sports
"I really like corndogs" -Sparky
"Imperial Intergalactic Overlord Barkevious Mingo" -Andy Staples, SI
"If Alabama's defense is a boa constrictor, slowly sucking the life out of opposing offenses, LSU's is more like a goon that throws the offense into a burlap sack and starts beating it with a stick." -Matt Hinton, Dr. Saturday
"Oregon’s Chip Kelly is generally considered a coaching mastermind. Miles toyed with him here Saturday night." -Dan Wetzel, Yahoo Sports
"I don’t want to say that I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson…..but I think Mo Claiborne is faster than Patrick Peterson." -Les Miles
by LSU Jonno on Dec 1, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Huge picture is huge.
But, in this case… oddly appropriate.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Dec 1, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
it is comments like this
that make it impossible to hate LSU. I have bounced around on ATVS and read their post here and 90% of them are what we would expect from Dawg fans. This is the kind of game I enjoy, classy, football intelligent fans, clean teams and good coaches. Looking forward to Saturday
And to Hell with gatech
by Dawg2011 on Nov 30, 2011 9:56 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I'd love for us...
To send the Tide to the Capital One or Cotton Bowl by beating the Tigers and having Okie State and LSU face-off in the mNC.
That would make our victory sweeter.
GATA!
by Jman781 on Dec 1, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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