College Football BlogPoll Ballot (Week 13): SEC Homer Edition
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 8:45 AM EST
in College Football BlogPoll
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PrintHonestly, with everything I have on my plate this week, I would’ve simply eschewed casting a BlogPoll ballot this time around, but duty is the sublimest word in the English language, and besides, Jman781 would never let me hear the end of it if I deprived him of his weekly good luck ritual and the ‘Dawgs wound up losing because of it. Here, then, is my top 25:
Dawg Sports Ballot - Week 14
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | LSU Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -- |
| 3 | Boise St. Broncos | -- |
| 4 | Oregon Ducks |
 2 |
| 5 | Stanford Cardinal |
2 |
| 6 | Arkansas Razorbacks |
 -2 |
| 7 | South Carolina Gamecocks |
4 |
| 8 | Georgia Bulldogs |
6 |
| 9 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
-4 |
| 10 | Virginia Tech Hokies |
-1 |
| 11 | Houston Cougars |
5 |
| 12 | USC Trojans |
-4 |
| 13 | Oklahoma Sooners | -- |
| 14 | Kansas St. Wildcats |
1 |
| 15 | Michigan St. Spartans |
3 |
| 16 | Michigan Wolverines |
3 |
| 17 | Wisconsin Badgers |
4 |
| 18 | Nebraska Cornhuskers |
6 |
| 19 | TCU Horned Frogs |
-7 |
| 20 | Baylor Bears |
-3 |
| 21 | Clemson Tigers |
-11 |
| 22 | Penn St. Nittany Lions |
-2 |
| 23 | BYU Cougars | -- |
| 24 | West Virginia Mountaineers | -- |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bearcats | -- |
| Dropouts: Virginia Cavaliers, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Notre Dame Fighting Irish | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings »
I’m taking it as a given that, at least as a matter of resume ranking, Louisiana State is your clear No. 1 and Alabama is your clear No. 2. Reasonable people may argue whether a rematch between the Bayou Bengals and the Crimson Tide is appropriate, advisable, or interesting, but, in terms of on-field achievement, LSU is without peer, and ‘Bama is close behind.
The Broncos snagged the No. 3 ranking because, in a weak field of once-beaten teams, Boise State has the best win (by two touchdowns over Georgia), a quality loss (by one point to Texas Christian), and an overall record unsullied by a Division I-AA opponent and featuring wins over seven teams with winning records. Yes, you read that correctly: BSU has beaten seven teams that are above .500. Knee-jerk knocks on the Broncos’ schedule are as outdated as Georgia Tech fans’ animadversions upon University of Georgia academics.
Due to the aforementioned dearth of high-caliber one-loss teams, Oregon earned the No. 4 spot by virtue of having bested fifth-ranked Stanford and fallen to top-ranked LSU and two-loss USC (by three). The Cardinal beat that Trojan team (by eight points in overtime), but Stanford suffers from a resume that looks like the one most folks erroneously seem to suppose Boise State possesses; seven of the Cardinal’s victims are at or below .500, with five of them having at least eight losses.
I hated having to rank the Razorbacks as high as sixth, but, though the Hogs were hammered in both of their losses, those setbacks occurred on the road against the top two teams in the country, and, while Arkansas has faced a slate showcasing a Division I-AA team (Missouri State), four teams with losing records (Mississippi, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Troy, one of whom the Hogs beat by five points), and three teams with .500 records (Mississippi State, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt, two of whom the Hogs beat by four or fewer points), the Razorbacks convincingly beat the seventh-ranked Gamecocks, who convincingly beat Clemson, in addition to defeating eighth-ranked Georgia.
The Bulldogs’ resume is virtually (almost eerily) identical to Arkansas’s---ten wins compiled against Division I-AA Coastal Carolina, four teams with losing records (Kentucky, Mississippi, New Mexico State, and Tennessee, one of whom the ‘Dawgs beat by eight points), and three teams with .500 records (Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt, two of whom the ‘Dawgs beat by five or fewer points); two losses to teams with double-digit win tallies---but the Red and Black won their division, had a better conference ledger, were competitive in one of their pair of setbacks, and beat the Auburn Tigers by a more convincing score than either LSU or Alabama did. Head-to-head results---Arkansas beat South Carolina; South Carolina beat Georgia---dictated the order of the trio of 10-2 SEC teams.
The next-best squad available was a club whose best win is a seven-point home victory over Kansas State and whose loss was to a 6-5 outfit. (We have now reached the point in the poll at which bad losses start to expose some contenders as pretenders. Starting with Oklahoma State, the retort to, “But they haven’t beaten anybody!” is: “Yeah, but at least they lost to somebody!”) The Hokies, for instance, only beat Georgia Tech and Virginia (albeit both on the road), but the Gobblers lost to the Jungaleers. The Cougars haven’t lost to anyone, which put them on the edge of the top ten as Division I-A’s only other unbeaten team, but Houston’s twelve victims include Division I-AA Georgia State, six teams with losing records, and two teams sitting at 6-6.
Southern California and Oklahoma were hurt by losses to Arizona State and Texas Tech, respectively, while the Wildcats were harmed by having negotiated a weak slate---Kansas State’s best win is over Baylor---during which five of KSU’s nine wins were by single-score margins; basically, the Wildcats are the outlier that exists to average out Texas A&M. From there, we begin the run of Big Ten teams I ain’t buying. The Spartans lead the pack at No. 15 because, even though they beat ten-loss Florida Atlantic and eleven-loss Indiana, they also beat the Wolverines and the Badgers. The Maize and Blue beat Nebraska and Notre Dame.
Wisconsin ranks 17th because that’s the lowest I could conscientiously rank a 10-2 team from a conference whose champion automatically qualifies for a BCS bowl bid. The Badgers beat Nebraska and Penn State, but they also lost to a 6-6 Ohio State club and bulked up on empty calories by beating Minnesota (3-9), Oregon State (3-9), UNLV (2-9), Indiana (1-11), and Division I-AA South Dakota. When half your wins are against teams from Division I-AA or teams from Division I-A with nine or more losses, you’re overrated.
The Cornhuskers beat Michigan State but lost to Northwestern. The Horned Frogs beat Boise State but lost to Southern Methodist. The Bears beat Oklahoma but lost to Texas A&M. The Tigers beat Virginia Tech but lost to N.C. State. The Nittany Lions lost to three teams with a combined record of 30-6 but beat Division I-AA Indiana State and eight Division I-A teams with a combined record of 46-50. The Cougars are 8-3, but BYU’s only win over a Division I-A team with a winning record was a three-point victory over Utah State. The Mountaineers and the Bearcats sneaked in by virtue of being a pair of 8-3 Big East teams, with the one that beat the other head-to-head getting the nod. Also, I got breakfast from the Chick-fil-A drive-through on Monday morning, which made me more than ordinarily sympathetic to the Bearcats, due to the similarity of the two logos.
I’m not altogether pleased with that ballot, so I’m sure you’re not. By all means, let me know what I got wrong in the comments below.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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I know you typically tend to underrank your own team
But I believe that UGA beats Arky on a neutral field. I also think UGA beats South Carolina on a neutral field right now, but I know it’s hard to rank a team ahead of another after they have lost to that team. Georgia played S. Carolina very evenly and that was with Lattimore.
Looking forward to seeing how this all shakes out. Also interested to see how high UGA could climb with an upset this weekend.
Still a Gator, even if we're FSU's bitches.
OK St is waaaaaaaayyyyyy too low
There’s no way we and sakerlina should be ranked higher.
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 10:43 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Agreed
You say that Oklahoma State’s best win is by 7 points over Kansas State, but you have Kansas State ranked 14th. As an example, Georgia not only has one more loss, but their best win is either unranked Georgia Tech or unranked Auburn. Even though Georgia has better “quality losses”, the fact remains that Oklahoma State has beaten a more impressive slate of teams and has only lost once.
Just out of curiosity, Kyle, how much emphasis do you put on quality wins compared to quality losses? It seems to me like the importance of the two has been swapped this season. Generally, I think that most commentators/voters put more importance on who a team has beaten, but this year teams are getting much more credit to losing to good teams. Compare Oklahoma State to Alabama. Going solely on teams beaten, you could make the argument that Oklahoma State has the more impressive list of scalps.
Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M
Arkansas, Penn State, Auburn, Florida, Vanderbilt
Now, I’ll admit that most of the teams listed there are of fair-to-middling quality, but I would give the edge to Oklahoma State. So give quality of win to Oklahoma State, in a narrow fashion. Quality of loss isn’t a contest, losing to LSU looks much better than losing to Iowa State. I feel like Oklahoma State would usually get more credit for a solid list of wins rather than getting dinged for one bad loss. Either way, I feel like the two resumes are too similar to justify a seven spot difference. One could probably make the same arguments for Oklahoma State over Arkansas, South Carolina, and even Stanford.
by SG Standard on Nov 29, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
This season, with so many good teams having suffered so many bad losses, . . .
. . . I’m using those bad losses to break ties.
I think an argument can be made for Alabama’s wins being better than Oklahoma State’s. The Tide’s best win was over No. 6 Arkansas, by a lot; the Cowboys’ best win was over No. 14 Kansas State, by a little. The Tide’s second-best win was over No. 22 Penn State, by a lot; the Cowboys’ second-best win was over No. 20 Baylor, by a little. Given their respective schedules, I think Auburn and Texas, Florida and Missouri, and Vanderbilt and Texas A&M are, at worse, comparable. At the end of the day, I have a very hard time believing the Pokes’ wins are markedly superior to Alabama’s . . . yet the Tide lost a close one to the consensus No. 1 team, while Oklahoma State lost a close one to (at best) a mediocre team. That bad loss dings the Cowboys considerably, in my mind, though, as always, reasonable minds may differ.
If it’s any consolation, we’ll have a very clear answer to that dispute after this weekend.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
right
but that doesn’t explain voting us or south carolina ahead of them.
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 11:58 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sure it does.
We lost to two very good teams, which is why we’re above them. South Carolina was one of those two teams, which is why the Gamecocks are above us.
The knock on Georgia’s resume is that we only beat bad teams. All right, fine; at least we didn’t lose to any bad teams, which is what Oklahoma State, and several other teams, did. That distinction is why Mark Fox’s Bulldogs made the NCAA Tournament last year and Anthony Grant’s Crimson Tide didn’t.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
beating a couple of good teams and having a bad loss
is superior to not having beaten anybody and having 2 good losses. Besides, South Carolina lost to Auburn. Auburn is comparable to Iowa State this season. Oklahoma State played a tougher schedule than we did and they came out of it with a single loss.
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 12:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I understand and respect that position.
To me, they’re differences of degree . . . or, more precisely, it is about degrees of difference. Kansas State and Baylor are better than Georgia Tech and Auburn, but only marginally so. Boise State and South Carolina are way, way better than Iowa State.
This will, of course, all come out in the wash this weekend.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
I respect your position on respecting my position
by Mark Mandingo on Nov 29, 2011 1:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
Why did TCU drop so much?
You use them as a quality opponent against Boise St, but then drop them 7. What’s up?
Fair question.
The short answer is, they didn’t drop; I started with a clean white sheet of paper, as I do most weeks this deep in the season, and that’s where TCU landed. The arrows, essentially, are meaningless, as I didn’t look at last week’s ballot when compiling this week’s ballot, so I didn’t consciously move the Horned Frogs up or down.
Without going back and looking at it (which I can when I get home, if you’d like), my guess is that the teams Texas Christian played lost last week, thereby worsening their records, thereby weakening the Frogs’ resume. Remember, I’m looking at a team’s record in its totality every week; what the first team you played did last week matters as much as what the last team you played did last week. The other alternative is that the resumes of the teams just behind TCU improved. I’m honestly not sure which it was.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
No Dawg Gone Podcast this morning I guess?
Aww. That’s becoming regular fixture on Tuesday mornings for me as I get ready for work :-P
"90% of everything is crap. Except crap. 100% of crap is crap."
by Wonton Beef Stew on Nov 29, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions
It'll be a day late, . . .
. . . but not a dollar short.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
It's going to be a very special episode. Look for it Wed AM!
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Nov 29, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Two entirely different voting methods.
The SEC Power Poll is, as its name implies, a power poll, which is based on how well a team is playing right now. I believe Georgia would beat South Carolina in a rematch on a neutral field this Saturday.
My BlogPoll ballot is ranked by resumes, and is therefore based on what a team has accomplished on the field, regardless of how well or poorly I think that team will fare in its next game. Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina have identical records, but Arkansas beat South Carolina and South Carolina beat Georgia, so the Razorbacks’ resume is better than the Gamecocks’ and the Gamecocks’ resume is better than the Bulldogs’.
In short, the two different ballots seek to answer two different, though admittedly related, questions. One asks, “How have they done?” The other asks, “How are they doing?” Two different questions produce two different answers, as with Bill James’s measures of “career value” and “peak value.”
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 29, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
I know where you're coming from. Just noting that it's interesting.
Not sure how I feel that USC would do against UGA if they played again. I have to admit UGA’s 10-game win streak is impressive. Regardless of the final score or opponents’ records, it is in fact impressive to win that many games consecutively. But I’m starting to feel more confident in Connor Shaw and in runningbacks not named Marcus Lattimore. I know for a fact that Clemson’s defense is not as good as UGA’s, But I think we’ve found some rhythm and some ability to spread the field and get things going.
Our defense is still strong, and I think we would actually improve upon our performance against UGA. Doubtful that we’d be able to replicate the defensive scores, but I think we’d still be able to pressure Murray with Ingram, Taylor and Clowney. Our secondary would still be like to get an INT or two.
The good news is that we get to find our where we stand again in 2012. See you Williams-Brice Stadium, Kyle.
In the end though, I think you could really lump South Georgiansas together. Pretty even.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Nov 29, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Keep in mind we gave SC 28 pts. That seriously wouldnt happen right now. And even with those pts, it still took a final drive to seal it for SC.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
You say you gave em, I saw we took em.
You can play that game all you want. USC has given UGA lots of points over the years and telling myself that we gave UGA the points necessary to win never made it hurt any less for me and it never changed the result.
I wouldn’t say that you gave us a touchdown on a Fake Punt, rather that we took it. It hurts, believe me, I know.
You might say that you gave us this one… ok… we gave you this one.
It doesn’t matter if the game had lots of points, or very few points, usually it is a close game that relies on some kind of freak play. Maybe today a fake punt wouldn’t be run for a touchdown, but who says that drive couldn’t have continued to the end zone after the 4th down conversion. Basically, just because you don’t think you would gift us 28 points, doesn’t mean you would score 42 either.
- FOW
by skandrewj62j on Nov 29, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
I do not believe UGA would produce the turnovers and miscues this Sat against SC that it did in that game.
We are much, much sharper, we have created a team on both sides of the ball.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
They are discussing the ranking of the Power Poll
In the Power Poll all that matters is how you are currently playing not how you played previously. The ranking in this poll reflects the fact that we lost to SC in the second week but that isn’t a factor for power polling as TKK already pointed out.
by AcworthDawg on Nov 30, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions
For the first time ever...
I believe you’ve over-ranked UGA, which concerns me greatly, for you generally like to be a tad pessimistic with regard to our Dawgs.
Yes, Oklahoma State has one bad loss, but they’ve beaten many more ranked teams than UGA and have a legit shot at going to the mNC. Additionally, Houston, which is undefeated, shouldn’t be ranked behind a 2-loss UGA team, at least not until we actually beat “someone.”
Back to the top, I’d have Bama #2, but they are not the “clear No. 2.” You’re a fan of resume ranking. I believe you do not look at the scores of the games, so margin of victory shouldn’t factor into your analysis. Thus, you have an Alabama team with one loss and only one (yes, one) win over a Top 25 team (Arkansas), maybe two if you count Penn State, which I don’t (see below). Oklahoma State has beaten two ranked teams, too, so, while I would still put them behind Bama, I’m not certain they should be “clearly” behind the Tide, unless you factor in margins of victory and use the “eye-ball test.”
How can you rank the Mighty Ducks so highly? Based on what? Their win over Stanford, a team you say hasn’t really beaten anyone? They have same exact record as USC, yet you have them ranked EIGHT spots ahead of the Trojans. If only the Trojans and the Ducks settled the matter on the field. Wait? What? USC BEAT Oregon at Oregon? Well, now, how do you explain them being ranked behind the Ducks?
If you are going to pull the Arizona State is a worse loss than either USC or LSU card, then how do you explain UGA’s ranking BEHIND South Carolina? Both teams are 10-2, South Carolina beat UGA, but the Gamecocks have a worse loss to Auburn at home, while UGA has “better” losses to South Carolina and Boise State. You either need to drop the Ducks behind USC or move UGA ahead of South Carolina, otherwise you’re not applying your ranking logic evenly.
Why is Penn State even ranked? Heck, I’d argue, even with an additional loss, ND or GT are better than the Nittany Lions, due to their wins over Mich. State and Clemson, respectively…None of the teams should be ranked, for what it’s worth.
Blow it up!
GATA!
Other than that, though, . . .
. . . it’s perfect, right? :)
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
I have no problem where LSU is ranked...
For now :-)
GATA!
by Jman781 on Nov 29, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just IMHO....using BCS rankings....
I have Bama & oSu neck & neck today, with oSu jumping UA with a win Sat… They will have wins over BSC ranked#’s…
#10, #11, #17, #22, #25 with a loss to unranked ISU….
Meanwhile Bama has wins over…
#8, #21 with a loss to #1 LSU….
oSu’s resume will be pretty good with a win over OU….
Kyle, have you given Arkansas St. any consideration?
A lot of their stats fall in the top 25, their two losses are against bowl eligible teams (including VT), and they’re playing some pretty good football. They even beat those Ragin Cajuns who are having a pretty good season and might be looking at a victory over a BCS conference team this weekend.
How 'Bout Them Dawgs!
Randome though re: the Ragin Cajuns.
Louisiana-Lafayette should change their on-field mascot to a big caricature of James Carville. That would be awesome.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
That should say "Random thought..."
My previewing skills are really slipping.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 30, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
I hadn't given them a look in a while, . . .
. . . but perhaps I should. I’ll be sure to do that next week. Thanks.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
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