I'm not sayin', just sayin'
by Xon on Nov 12, 2011 7:21 PM EST
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PrintIf Oregon defeats Stanford tonight, and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State next weekend....
Then could it be possible (hypothetical, I know) for a 2 loss SEC champion (hypothetical, I know!) to make the BCS title game? Or would all the one loss AQ conf champs have right of way just because of their better record?
You would have (hypothetically):
1-loss Pac12 champ (Oregon)
1-loss Big12 champ (Oklahoma)
1-loss ACC champ (Clemson)
2-loss SEC champ (redacted for hubris)
Wouldn't winning the conference that has claimed the last 5 BCS championships count for something here? When the "extra" loss was an out of conference game against a top-10 opponent?
Would the fans of this hypothetical 2-loss SEC champion still need to root for more losses for those 1-loss teams (in their conference championship games)? Or, would a 1-loss SEC West runner-up (Alabama, Arkansas) get in over the 2-loss SEC champion? Gasp, surely not, right? Right???
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There are bridges prior to this one.
Trip, trap, trip, trap.
Editorial Staff, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
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Of course
but I’m only asking about the bridge, not trying to cross it before the pavement has led us to it.
No matter how much of a long shot it is, if all this turmoil happens in the next three weeks, we don’t want the debate to sneak up on us. It’s a philosophical question if nothing else: what’s an SEC championship worth? Does it buy you an extra mulligan (against an out-of-conference top 10 opponent)?
what if
Stanford loses, Ala wins out then Ga beats LSU in SEC champ game? Would Ala go to national champ game and play OSU if they win out , by not even playing in the SEC champ game?
by allsports22 on Nov 12, 2011 9:58 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
that would be "wrong" though
By the widely accepted must-win-your-conference standard.
by Xon on Nov 13, 2011 1:02 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
"What if"
we hired Michael Adams choice of Dennis Erickson or Terry Donahue instead of Mark Richt? The what if game is too big to be any fun.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I disagree
Thinking about what might happen in three weeks based on actual football outcomes that are quite possible is very different than your counter-example.
I mean, if you have personally adopted an a priori rule to never consider any hypothetical situation, then be at peace and I wish you well.
Fine, I'll rephrase...
we’re getting ahead of ourselves, not only on our games (we’d still need to beat Tech, and then win an SEC Champ), as well as get several others to lose helping us out. Yeah, sure, if everything falls perfectly in to place, maybe. But we’re about 8 steps, several highly unlikely, from worrying about what ifs yet.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
well to be fair
I can’t help but look at what Bowl Game we might end up playing at this point. Also, we are bowl eligible by 2 games and Florida still has to win one more to get to bowl eligible. This makes me happy.
Housemother & Editor at Dawg Sports
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by podunkdawg on Nov 13, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Actually, this is exactly my point, really
After everything that has happened this season, it is conceivable. That all by itself is one more amazing thing on top of this amazing pile.
I am only concerned about beating UK by 40 pts.
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"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Nov 13, 2011 12:21 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
What did the United Kingdom ever do to you?
Oh, wait. . . .
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
What up Xon!
Haven’t seen a post in a while….great to hear from you!
Broadcasting live from a secure location underneath the Hell Gate Bridge
by The Quincy Carter of Accountants on Nov 13, 2011 12:28 AM EST reply actions
I am too optimistic and non-anti-Bobo
Sometimes to feel comfortable in my own skin. But something about the last month or so…
by Xon on Nov 13, 2011 1:03 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Seriously, though, TQCOA is right.
It’s good to see you posting again. Speaking as a qualitative guy, I’m glad to have you quantitative folks around and participating.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
I seriously doubt it.
Had our two losses been close losses in league, you might have an argument. The South Carolina loss is certainly excusable when it comes to the national championship discussion. Unfortunately, the other one was to Boise State (they of a 2011 Las Vegas Bowl bid). It wasn’t even close, and that hurts us badly.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d never turn down a shot at a national title, but we’d basically be getting in because of one elite level win (LSU) and a bunch of wins against mediocre to decent teams. We’d be the Boise State of the SEC because of our schedule. That kind of negates the whole SEC argument when it comes to getting in over teams with better records.
There is no such thing as "Boise State of the SEC"
It doesn’t matter if your schedule draw is relatively lucky in a given year, if you go 7-1 and win the conference championship game, in the SEC, then you are an excellent football team. End of discussion in my opinion.
Teams change over the course of the season. LSU in the championship game in 2003 was much better than LSU in Baton Rouge in September of that year. The Dawgs in the second half of 2007 were much better than the team that lost to Carolina in week two that season. I think people usually recognize that. Boise is still a respectable loss, and everyone knows we weren’t gelling yet.
I do suspect you’ve summed up how the argument would go, though. It’s interesting to think about.
If we lose to Kentucky, I know I’ll be banished from this site. That’s fair.
by Xon on Nov 13, 2011 4:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This I agree with
But i think until we beat LSU no one will put us in that category. Perhaps if we go in the dome and look like a big boy team then people will look at it differently. And its worth mentioning that we have to go up about 13 spots in the rankings in the next 3 weeks. It really comes down to is the SECC bring a two loss team above the other one loss teams
Exactly, this is what it would be all about
and is what I am primarily wondering. As far as it all happening, certainly you are correct that it wouldn’t happen until it….um, happened. :) Until we actually beat LSU nobody is going to treat us like a team that beat LSU.
I’m being jolly, not snarky.
It is all relative...
It doesn’t matter if your schedule draw is relatively lucky in a given year, if you go 7-1 and win the conference championship game, in the SEC, then you are an excellent football team. End of discussion in my opinion.
Certainly our road is tougher than Boise’s, I’m not making that argument. I’m just pointing out that our relatively easy schedule makes it VERY tough to make a legitimate argument that a 2-loss UGA deserves in over some of those other teams with 1 loss. Now, if you had Florida or LSU with two losses this season given their schedules, you might have a different argument.
Teams change over the course of the season. LSU in the championship game in 2003 was much better than LSU in Baton Rouge in September of that year. The Dawgs in the second half of 2007 were much better than the team that lost to Carolina in week two that season. I think people usually recognize that. Boise is still a respectable loss, and everyone knows we weren’t gelling yet.
We’re certainly better than we were when we played Boise, but early losses count in college football. That’s one of the things that makes the sport great.
by FisheriesDawg on Nov 13, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
True, . . .
. . . but there was real discussion the year Florida State started out 0-2, and finished 10-2, so there is precedent. Granted, that was during the pre-BCS era, but it’s fun to speculate.
Still, we have at least two, and hopefully three, games to go before that’s even in the discussion, so, yeah, I’m of the school of thought that says you don’t tempt fate, or count your chickens before they’ve hatched.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
What Kyle says below
but also, just to be clear here, we are talking about a scenario in which everyone in the discussion has losses. It is taking me back to 2007 (not saying I disagree with what ultimately happened) and my rage-fires are re-kindling when I think about saying Team X doesn’t deserve to go over Team Y, when both teams have losses, because Team X “lost that game against Z, and losses count in college football.”
If you’re gonna lose, lose early. If you have to win a beauty contest against other teams that also have losses, the fact that you have put it together and are now playing excellent football at the end of the year should count for something.
I'm late to the party here...
… but I have to agree with those who say it won’t happen.
Actually, let me rephrase: There is absolutely zero chance that it would happen. On the tiny, infinitesimal chance that we run the table enroute to the SECCG and then beat an undefeated LSU, there are just too many teams in front of us with zero or one loss.
In that incredibly unlikely scenario, we would just have to be happy with being the fans of the last two SEC championship teams not to play in the BCS National Championship Game.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 13, 2011 10:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
And this would make me happy indeed!
Though if the Dawgs then hit a rough patch in 2012, the Richtophobes would use the “couldn’t win a national championship with all that talent” argument against him. C’est vrai, non?
Well, the Richtophobes already have all their ammo for this season. It's like a choose-your-own-trollventure novel.
- If we lose to Alabama/LSU: “Richt doesn’t have what it takes to build a team that can really compete with the best in the SEC.”
- If we beat Alabama/LSU: “Richt can’t keep his team focused enough to beat a crappy-ass Boise State team in the first game of the year, when he had all offseason to prepare for them, and that cost us a national championship.”
- If we lose to Georgia Tech, then lose to Alabama/LSU: “WE NEED TO FIRE MARK RICHT AND HIRE CHRIS PETERSEN, PAAAWWWWWWWLLLL.”
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 14, 2011 3:22 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Don't you put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby!
The mere mention of losing to the nerds is unacceptable. Ever. Even if they are undefeated, we are winless, and they are favored by 28.5. You know better than that, vineyard!
The South, to me, is fried chicken and catfish caviar -- that's grits -- and good-looking women.
by downindixie on Nov 16, 2011 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
I want to sum this up, just for the fun of it.
Of course it goes without saying that we are pulling for the Dawgs in every game from here on out. So this is not hubris on anyone’s part, because we are simply talking about rooting interests here. If what we want to happen actually happens—if we win 3 more games over the next 3 weeks—then what else would be really dandy if it wanted to happen also?
It seems to me that it’s really just three of the following things, ye only 3:
1. Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State
2. Clemson loses to South Carolina
3. One of the three one-loss teams playing in a conference championship game (likely Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson) loses in that game.
4. Another of the three one-loss teams playing in a conference championship loses in that game.
If 3 of these happen, then there will be 1 one-loss conference champ, and a bunch of 2-loss conference champs. At that point, clearly there would be a strong argument for the 2-loss SEC champ over any of the others.
(If only 2 of those happen, then the 2-loss SEC champ would have to argue for its supplanting of a 1-loss champ of another conference. I don’t think that argument would be insane, given the SEC’s track record at this point, but I do agree with everyone that it would not likely prevail. This scenario was actually the original inspiration behind my post.)
I think the BCS rankings would mostly take care of themselves, even if some last-minute rearranging by voters was needed. The flies in the ointment would be a handful of very very good one-loss teams that did not play in their conference championship game (Stanford, Alabama, Oklahoma State). But, the “didn’t win your conference” argument is strong with people these days, so again our (entirely) hypothetical 2-loss SEC champion would be in a strong argumentative position.
Or, we could cheer our hearts out, all these things could happen, and vineyarddawg would turn out to be right after all. I can’t predict the future here. But it would be controversial at the very least to elevate either a non-conference-champion or an equal record non-SEC champion into the title game over an SEC champion.
First of all, Xon, I thank you for the mental exercise, which is intriguing.
However, the fly in our ointment is the Big 12. Due to the defections from the league, the Big 12 no longer has enough members to host a conference championship game, so, barring upsets, it will come down to a one-loss Oklahoma team facing an unbeaten Oklahoma State team for the conference title. The winner of that game unquestionably is BCS Championship Game-bound.
In your scenario above, a Clemson loss to South Carolina would be critical, because it would leave the Tigers with two losses heading into the ACC Championship Game, where I presume they would play once-beaten Virginia Tech, though I make a point of not knowing the ACC divisions, so I don’t really know. In any case, we want the ACC champion to have two losses, and we really need Oregon to lose the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Honestly, though, I really think that scenario puts the once-beaten non-conference champions (Alabama and Stanford) back in the mix before a two-loss SEC champion gets a look.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
that's the problem kyle
I can already hear Herbstreit arguing for Boise cause they beat us head to head. Then ther’s almost certinly two 1L or fewer bcs conference winners in okie/Okie St, Clemson/Va Tech, Stanford/Oregon, as well as a likely 1L only to one of the others between Arky, Bama, and LSU. It’d take a ton of luck for all but one of those to join us in the multiple loss club.
And wouldn’t UGA in the big game kind of kill the ‘college football rewards the best team, not the hottest team at the end of the year’ argument?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
BOOM! Playoff argument'ed.
Editor, Dawg Sports.
Go Dawgs!
by vineyarddawg on Nov 14, 2011 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
If we beat The Hat to win the SECC game,
then maybe his luck becomes our luck!
/deeper magic’d
by Xon on Nov 16, 2011 2:14 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Then maybe our running backs can start eating grass . . .
. . . instead of, well, you know.
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 16, 2011 7:14 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Can't believe I forgot there is no more Big 12 champ game
Mea maxima culpa. Thanks.
I will just say now, in advance of this thing that will never happen anyway, that if we were to be jumped by a team that did not win its conference just because that team had fewer losses than us, I would probably lose my metaphorical (hopefully that is all) poop. But I won’t stress in advance about such things.
Funny I was thinking about this the other day
Running through scenarios in my head on how if we take care of business the next 3 weeks what needed to happen for us to get a shot at the BCSNC. I seriously doubt it will happen considering we are 14th in the BCS polls this week. That being said if the scenario came to pass with a 1 loss (or two 1 loss) non conference champions playing for the crystal ball then we as UGA fans have every right to raise holy hell about that.
Let’s look at what might happen:
1) LSU-Ole Miss, Arkansas, possible SECCG
2) Okie State-Iowa St, Oklahoma (in Norman)
3) Alabama-Ga Southern, at Auburn
4) Oregon-USC, Oregon State, Pac 12 CG
5)Oklahoma- Baylor, Okie State
6)Arkansas-Miss St, LSU, possible SECCG
7)Clemson-NCState, S.Carolina, possible ACCCG
8)Va Tech (how the hell did they get this high?)-UNC, Virginia, possible ACCCG
9)Stanford-Cal, Notre Dame, possible Pac 12 CG
10) Boise St-SDSU, Wyoming, New Mexico (wow....really?)
11) Houston-SMU, @ Tulsa, CUSA CG
12)South Carolina-Citadel, Clemson
13)Kansas St-Texas,Iowa St
14)DAWGS-UK,@Nerds,SECCG
Let’s look at it by conference:
ACC- Clemson has already clinched one half of the ACCCG and the other half will likely be decided by the Virginia/Va Tech game on Nov 26. Clemson has a loseable game at S.Carolina the same day although as inept as the Cocks are on offense I expect the Tigers to win. What we need is for Virginia to beat Va Tech and then beat Clemson in the ACCCG.
Big 12-The Big 12 is the real fly in the ointment since they don’t have a CG any longer. Okie St and Oklahoma are the only real contenders, however I wouldn’t put it past Oklahoma to lose to Baylor this weekend which gives the Big 12 to the Pokes. Whoever wins the Okie St/Oklahoma game is most likely going to the BCSNC game.
Pac 12-The Pac 12 is pretty much Oregon’s to lose right now as long as they can get by USC (should be a good game) and Oregon State. The only way Stanford gets back into the race is if Oregon loses it’s last two games. Whomever comes out of the Pac 12 North will most likely face a pathetic UCLA team for the championship. This could be the other half of the BCSCG. We really need USC to beat Oregon this weekend (I feel so dirty having to root for Lane Kiffin)
Non AQ’s-Boise St is not going to lose again but they probably aren’t going to win the MWC. Does that eliminate them? Houston has SMU and the CUSACG on the schedule and will probably finish undefeated. Hawaii ’07 anyone? What we need to happen here is for Houston to lose and hope the voters will drop Boise for playing weak opponents.
SEC-The elephant in the room (pun intended) is the one loss Alabama team sitting at #4 this week. If the schedule goes “chalk” the next two weeks LSU will go to the SECCG as the West representative. UGA will have to beat LSU which will leave a one loss Alabama team as the SEC’s representative to the BCSCG….or will it? Would a one loss LSU still rank high enough to beat out a one loss Alabama?
Ain’t this what makes college football great?
No one loss team that does not win its conference
should be allowed in after all the shouting of this “rule” that has been done high and yonder for ht last several years. Our own TKK is a staunch advocate of this principle, as well.
It is one thing to rematch two teams from the same conference, since theoretically you could argue that they are the two best teams and are so equal in quality that the loser the first time around deserves a rematch (thus, you could theoretically justify a LSU-Bama rematch, or in 06 could have justified a Michigan-OSU rematch, though the original game there was really a two possession win that looked better than that due to a late score).
Me personally, I argued modestly that UGA had an argument in 07 over LSU, and that the “have to win your conference” rule is not really a great rule. But, given how much the masses seem to think that this is a rule now, I don’t see how you jump a conference champion with a team that didn’t win its conference. Of course, it may happen, but it would be flagrantly hypocritical and a break with “precedent” of the way the debate has been framed for the last 5-6 years to do so.
The other wrinkle here that I think matters is that UGA’s second loss would be against a top ten-ish out-of-conference opponent. So in conference our record would be as good as Bama or Arkansas’s. Better by 1/2 a game, actually, since we would have the SECCG win as well. It would be one thing if we were 2001 LSU or something and were sitting at 5-3 in conference (Isn’t that right?) and then won the SECCG, but still had an inferior record to a team like Bama. (though it seems to me that the “must win your conference” rule would just disqualify all SEC teams if that was the case. If the champion doesn’t deserve to go, then how can a team that is “worse” than the champion deserve to go?)
The stronger argument against UGA, in my opinion, would be in favor of a one loss team that didn’t win their conference, but from another conference other than the SEC. So, Stanford, for instance. But at that point I think we could at least jump up and down and say “best conference in the land, 5 straight BCS titles” and at least hope for some votes.
Xon - I hope you listen to this weeks podcast.
Editor, "Dawgsports"
"The ball ain't heavy." Herschel Walker
OU loses, Oregon loses, Okie St. loses
Everything is going according to plan. Only thing we need to do is focus on Georgia Tech and play out of our minds in the SEC Championship
Easy, right?
Seriously, given our penchant for superstition around here, I think this post has to become a series now, doesn’t it?
by Xon on Nov 20, 2011 9:10 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes!
The only bad thing that happened for us yesterday was that Stanford held on to win. Clemson, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Oregon going down to defeat all worked to our benefit . . . if the Bulldogs take care of business the next two weeks, which is a big “if.”
Manager, Dawg Sports, SB Nation's Georgia Bulldogs weblog.
Go 'Dawgs!
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