Pessimists' Poll
by Spears on Oct 19, 2011 1:51 PM EDT
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One of the on-going debates here at Dawgsports this season has been the disconnect between statistics and reality. For example, on paper, Coach Bobo is a pretty darn good offensive coordinator. In reality, if he runs Carlton Thomas up the middle on a third down draw one more time, I am going to shoot myself in the face.
As every Georgia fan knows, the Florida game is where statistics and expectations go to die. Steve Spurrier's 11-1 record against the Dawgs from 1990 to 2001 was at least partially explainable by the fact that Steve Spurrier is a pretty good coach, whereas Ray Goff and Jim Donnan were Ray Goff and Jim Donnan, respectively. But things have just gotten weird in the Mark Richt era. Consider the following:
In 2002, no. 4 ranked Georgia cruised into Jacksonville to face an unranked Gator squad which had struggled to a 5-3 record in the first year of the Ron Zook era. Destiny's Dawgs would finish the season ranked 22nd nationally in points scored (32.1/game) and 4th nationally in points allowed (15.1/game). Florida would finish the season ranked 69th nationally in points scored (25.8/game) and 32nd nationally in points allowed (21.5/game). Yet Florida's defense played the best game of their season, holding Georgia to just 13 points and picking off DJ Shockley for a touchdown in the second quarter. (It was ultimately just a pick-six, too, as the Zooker opted for a 2 point conversion, which failed. Of course he did.) Florida ultimately won 20-13, likely costing Georgia a shot at the national title.
In 2005, Georgia was again undefeated and ranked no. 4 nationally when it faced a scrappy 5-2 Florida squad in Urban Meyer's first year. Despite the loss of DJ Shockley for the game as the result of an injury at Arkansas, the Dawgs held the edge in first downs (19-16), passing yards (109-108), rushing yards (177-153), penalties (3:35-10:65), third down conversion percentage (40%-38%), and time of possession (31:30-28:30). Each team was 1-2 on fourth down conversions, and each team committed 1 turnover. Yet Chris Leak rushed for a TD and passed for a TD, while fill-in starting QB Joe Tereshinksi III only managed one TD (as a receiver), with the Bulldogs scoring only an additional field goal. Florida won 14-10.
Last year, the Bulldawgs seemed to be getting everything together with three consecutive wins after a very rocky start before they ran into the weakest Florida team in a decade, which was coming off a string of three consecutive losses. Georgia's offensive superiority (34.4-29.3 PPG) should have been enough to counteract Florida's slight defensive edge (21.1-23.1 PPG). However, Aaron Murray's otherwise phenomenal first year was tarnished with a performance that began and ended with an interception. Florida won the first Cocktail Party to go to overtime 33-30.
There are some promising signs this year. Georgia has a slight edge in total offense (501-430 yds/game) and total defense (444-448 yds/game). Georgia has reeled off 5 straight wins, whereas Florida is reeling from 3 straight losses. Georgia gets to spend its bye week resting and practicing the same formula that has been working pretty well for several weeks. Florida will spend its bye week looking for answers on both sides of the ball.
But the bad omens are already cropping up. John Brantley should be back at practice on Monday, which means he should be starting with a full week of practice under his belt. Kwame Geathers and Shawn Williams have been suspended for the first half of the game due to Vandygate. Steve Spurrier is reverse trolling us. Uh oh.
So, how will Georgia lose this year's Cocktail Party?
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Georgia wins
I really feel like the biggest reason we haven’t been able to pull it off recently was the whole psychology of the situation. However, there are two big reasons I believe that the psychological conditions which have given Florida the edge in recent past are gone.
1. Urban Meyer is gone. Somehow, this man just knew exactly what to do to get his players to play the best game of the year against Georgia. Now that he’s gone, I’m optimistic that this will play a key role.
2. Both teams are young. Both Georgia and Florida actually have a decent number of guys on the team who aren’t accustomed to the whole Florida winning every year thing. Yes, there are seniors on Florida’s team who have never lost to us, but I believe there are enough young players (especially Freshman) who just plain and simply won’t bow down to the whole idea of being the team that supposed to lose.
But that’s just me reaching for optimism. Next year, I’ll have to try something else.
by Swarles_Barkley on Oct 19, 2011 3:27 PM EDT reply actions
To elaborate...
Isaiah Crowell, John Jenkins, Alec Ogletree (only lost a close game last year), Jarvis Jones, and Malcolm Mitchell are all guys who I believe aren’t going to be affected by the recent past against Florida. That’s a total of 5 key players on offense and defense who have lost a collective one game to Florida. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember the last time we’ve had this many impact Freshman that will be naive enough to believe they can actually beat Florida. Normally I would say having a ton of Freshman starting is not to your advantage for that game, but this is the exception. When a series is into the players’ heads this much, I believe it helps to have younger players who aren’t as affected psychologically.
by Swarles_Barkley on Oct 19, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
To be fair...
I felt like Aaron Murray was the only guy last year who was clearly having trouble with Florida simply because they’re Florida. And he’s been less impressive this year so far than we had hoped… If Murray loses his mind when he sees Florida like he did last year, I’m not sure we can overcome that. And it’ll be tougher for him to look as good as he did last year. Most of his big plays in that game were made by AJ.
Those are very valid points, and I hope you are correct.
But allow me to retort:
1. Ron Zook went 2-1 against us while at Florida. Ron Zook. (RON. ZOOK.)
2. Everyone on both teams has grown up during the era of Florida’s dominance. No one who takes the field on Saturday will have any memories of any time prior to Florida’s dominance. Nearly all of them were born during the era of Florida’s dominance. It’s in their collective unconsciousness, if not their DNA.
by Spears on Oct 19, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I see your point
Ultimately, though, I’m just hoping that there’s a big difference between knowing that Florida has dominated the series for 20 years and actually experiencing that domination. I guess that’s the foundation of my argument, however accurate it may be.
by Swarles_Barkley on Oct 19, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Some of All...
Dawgs will score 28 points and have 400 yards offense, while the D will give up only 14 and 200 yards offense. But:
- we’ll run into their punt returner who isn’t fair catching and knock the ball loose, but the penalty that wasn’t called v AU in last week’s AU-UF game will be called against us just to even things out, they’ll tack on 40 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct when Mark Richt eye gouges Penn Wegers, and they’ll cover the 15 yards needed for a TD;
- we’ll run Carlton Thomas up the middle on 3d and 37 from our 5, and one of their DTs will pick him up and run him into the end zone, TD UF;
- we’ll be driving for the winning TD when Murray decides to throw deep to Malcolm Mitchell, who makes a great catch in the end zone, which is nullified when Penn Wegers calls an excessive celebration penalty which, being one-eyed, he cannot tell is actually Will Muschamp screaming at his safety; then tacks on another 50 yard penalty when Mark Richt gouges his other eye, which, while improving his officiating, so upsets Aaron Murray that he throws the ball to the nearest available UF defender, who runs it in for a TD
- all more than enough due to Blair Walsh’s 4 missed FGs.
Seriously, my friend, and I ain’t said this in many a year: Dawgs win, and with some comfort.
by Chickasaw on Oct 19, 2011 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I like everything you wrote, except the win part.
"The ball ain't heavy." - Herschel Walker
by tankertoad on Oct 19, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe Big Bad John will pick the ballcarrier up and run him into the endzone.
I have to applaud your optimism of blaming an outside force for causing Murray to throw a costly late interception.
by Cherokee's Grip on Oct 19, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
This would be quality television.
And any Georgia victory, no matter the form, has my approval.
Actually, scratch that. As much as I want the win, any display on the part of Richt and company that reminds me of James Franklin would not sit well with me.
by Swarles_Barkley on Oct 19, 2011 3:55 PM EDT reply actions
My Gator buddy
(assuming one can have a real buddy that is a Gator) tells me Brantley is out until mid Nov for what it’s worth. My only concern is Muscan’t having logged this game on his Blackberry as # 1 must have victory.
Gaineville Sun says he'll be back @practice today
by dgreene on Oct 20, 2011 6:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Anyone who ever thought Florida would be without an important player for this game . . .
. . . hasn’t been paying attention for the last 20+ years. They catch every break.
Go 'Dawgs!
Muschamp has said
that Brantley isn’t even running yet and that they’re planning to have him back in practice Monday.
As secretive as they’ve been down there, he could be totally fine now or he could be on crutches. The story out of Gainesville would be the same.
I think he’ll be back but not ready.
He'll be back and bionic.
We can’t catch a break in this series.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Oct 20, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
did you miss the
“As secretive as they’ve been down there, he could be totally fine now or he could be on crutches. The story out of Gainesville would be the same.”?
Because you’re right, I don’t believe anything he says.
My theory is that Spurrier created 7 Horcruxes that we've got to destroy before we can return balance to the series.
Who’s up for hunting them down and destroying them all?
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
by Uga in DC on Oct 19, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Or we could use Orson Charles' behind,
which is already well-known in Florida for its destructive properties.
by Cherokee's Grip on Oct 19, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I only wish we had a crystall ball he could break in the "Butts" Mehre building....
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
by Uga in DC on Oct 19, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd, my good sir...
…although Harry Potter and Georgia Football are two things I never thought I’d see so magically (some pun intended) combined.
Well done, sir.
by HerschelBlogger on Oct 19, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait a minute.....
If I remember correctly, wasn’t one of those a diary? Sort of similar to a notebook…..coincidence, I think not.
Broadcasting live from a secure location underneath the Hell Gate Bridge
by The Quincy Carter of Accountants on Oct 19, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a coincidence
Bobo’s playbook (green or not) has had a huge negative affect on the past games against Florida.
by Swarles_Barkley on Oct 19, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Does it make me a nerd that I just laughed so hard coke came out of my nose at that?
"The ball ain't heavy." - Herschel Walker
Ugh - even when we should win, it is hard to feel positive.
Truth is, Richt has not shown the ability to win this game. Two wins…
1) Zook was fired the same week Richt won that game.
2) The win against Meyer was with a beat up Tebow and a completely depleted Florida DL.
Brantley plays..it is a close game, but we lose. If Brantley doesn’t play, we will win, provided we play decent on special teams.
This is a double apology
Roach,
I mistakenly warned you when it was intended for the writer of a self promotion fanpost. I apologize. It was my bad, you’re good. Just wanted to make sure you saw that the warning was completely my fault and a mistake. There is no problem, thanks for joining the site and paarticipating in the community. Hope you come back for more.
Sincerely,
Me
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Other (by way of special teams)....
Big John rolls his ankle on the first play. Gators roll to a 21-7 half lead. We get Williams and Kwame in the second half. Claw to within 21-17. Florida, with a 4th and 57 runs out of the back of the endzone for the safety. 21-19. On the insuing “KO” Boykin runs it to the 15. Walsh gaks on the winning kick as time expires.
Yes, that is my son. Yes, that is a bottle of Crown.
Wow, that's very specific gut wrenching pain!
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
That's how we roll in Jax-vegas
Forgot too. It is only 4th and 56. We get to keep the record distance.
Yes, that is my son. Yes, that is a bottle of Crown.
To borrow a meme from EDSBS, 4th down distance-to-go Nashnul Champions!!!
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
You guys are hilarious
I don’t really know what to expect from this years WLOCP, but I do know that a whole lot of it depends entirely on whether or not Brantley plays. If he doesn’t, none of it will matter. The entire secondary for UGA could play with ebola, while Penn Wagers removes all pretense and just wears orange and blue pinstripes, and the Dawgs will win by 14. I’m not sure if you’ve been paying attention, but the offense in Gainesville has begun to push us to Georgia like levels of pessimism. If Brantley plays, it could be very good game, and the suspensions could perhaps play a factor (though I don’t think a big one).
contributing author - Alligator Army
I chose "Other"
Frankly, until Georgia shows the ability to go down to Jacksonville and TCOB at least twice in a row, I’m a disbeliever in the Dawgs’ ability to win the Cocktail Party.
Who knows how it will happen this year, but we all know deep down that it will happen. It doesn’t matter that our O and D are playing better than UF’s right now. It doesn’t matter that we are on a winning streak and they are on a losing streak.
All I know for sure is that somehow, some way, the Dawgs will lose to Florida. And it will probably be heartbreaking.
by Hobnail_Boot on Oct 20, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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