The Secret to Beating Florida

First, as promised, here is how the numbers from last weeks How to Win article held up in the Vanderbilt game.

1. Punts: 2- Win by 86

2. Fumbles Recovered: 1- Win by 26

3. Opponent's Offense Yards: 349- Lose by 4

4. Rushing TDs: 0- Lose by 17

5. Number of 3rd down Conversions: 8- Win by 29

6. Opponent's # of 3rd down Attempts: 12- Lose by 17

7. Defensive Yards from Interceptions: 18- Win by 16

8. Opponents # of Offensive Plays: 67- Tie

9. Kickoffs: 8- Win by 31

10. Opponent's # of 1st downs: 19- Lose by 3

So if you average that out, we were predicted to win by 15. We only won by 5. Moral of the story, we win.

Now, an updated list of importance going into the most important game (Funny how much one game changes things, especially when we play like a totally different team). Added this week is a specific look at how Florida stacks up:

10.  Number of 3rd Down Conversions- Although it dropped a few spots in importance/significance, what we do with 3rd down conversions still counts. On the upside, the number of conversions before we start winning has dropped. With how the offense played last week, that is good news. Without a single 3rd down conversion we will lose by 25. By our 5th conversion we win the WLOCP. We are only averaging 6 and the Florida defense is only allowing 3 ½ per game, so keep an eye on this one.

9. Offensive Plays- This stat went from almost relevant last week to relevant. The more plays we have, the more time they don't have the ball, and the better odds that one of those plays will end up in the endzone or close enough for 3pts. Assuming we didn't show up to the game, and therefore ran 0 plays on offense, we would lose by 133. After the Dawgs have run 65 plays on offense we start winning. We are currently averaging 71.5 plays per game, but UF is only allowing 64 plays from the opposing offense.  This could be that their opponent hasn't needed to run the hurry up, so they simply didn't need more plays. Still, another stat to watch.

8. Opponent's 1st downs- a repeat from last week, with a little added importance. The more they convert downs, the better the odds of our opponent scoring.  Assuming we forced 3-and-outs the entire game, we should win by 58. Even though Florida is without a decent QB, I doubt this is a reality. The biggest thing is to not allow more than 18 first downs. Florida is averaging 17.7 1st downs, with almost 2 a game from penalties. If we can hold them around average and avoid automatic first down penalties we should be winners.

7. Opponent's 3rd down attempts- this one moved down a spot this week, but same story as last time. No 3rd down attempts means they got it done on the 1st or 2nd down. If the defense was to revert to its CWM ways and force 0 3rd downs we lose by 157. Once our opponent gets to their 13th 3rd down attempt the Dawgs are sitting pretty. Florida is averaging 12 3rd down attempts a game and we are forcing almost 14. This means our D needs to step up and force Florida above their average.

6. Rushing TDs- Not quite as important, but still top 10. Lets hope Richt shows his love for Crowell this week by letting him run for a TD. Because without one we lose by 9, but with one we win. Simple as that. We are averaging almost 1 ½ rushing TDs per game and UF is giving up at least one rush TD per game, so this should happen.

5. Kickoffs- Besides the kick to start the half, a kickoff means we just scored. Pretty simple relationship with winning. If we only got our opening kickoff, we lose by 14. But just 2 kicks later we are winning. We are averaging 4 kicks per game and they are allowing almost 5 per game. This sounds like another category in our favor.

4. Fumbles recovered by UGA- A little less important than last week, but don't tell our boys that. Without a recovered fumble, we lose by 2. That first recovery and we shoot into the win column (each fumble recovery is worth 24 points between us and our opponent).  We are averaging exactly 1 recovered fumble per game. On the plus side, Florida is losing a fumble almost once a game, but they are fumbling almost 2 ½ times per game. Time to capitalize on their inability to hold on to the rock.

3. Yards off Interceptions- After a week with 3 interceptions, this category shot up the charts. Without an interception or any yards off the ones we do get, we lose by 8. After 7 return yards we are winning. We are averaging more than double that and Florida is allowing exactly double that per game. This sounds like an easy win in an important category.

2. Opponent's Offensive Plays-And after a week where our defense flopped, the opponent offensive categories jump to the Alabama/LSU spots. If the other team didnt show up, we would win by 200. What are the odds that we can get their bus drivers lost? If not, then we have to allow less than 67 plays. We allow 63 ½ plays from our opponents and Florida is only averaging 61 plays. Yet another win in an important category

1. Opponent's Offensive Yards- After last week I'm not surprised to see this here. If we hold our opponent to 0 total yards we would win by 62. Although I would enjoy all aspects of this more than I can say, I doubt it will happen. The key is allowing less than 337 yards of offense. Thankfully we are only allowing 273 yards per game. Sadly, Florida is averaging 354 yards per game. Talk about a relentless offense. They obviously have been watching a lot of Green Bay games. Something has to give here, i just hope its them.

In summary(since i know most of you skimmed that):

  • Stats we should come out ahead in- # of UF 1st downs, UGA Rushing TDs, # of UGA Kickoffs, Interception return yards by our boys, Limiting Florida's offensive plays
  • Things to watch: UGA 3rd down conversions, UGA Offensive plays, Forcing UF 3rd down attempts, Fumbles recovered by UGA, and most importantly Limiting Florida's yards on offense.

Extra Bits of info:

  • The relevance of Punting dropped about as far as that blocked punt. Drew, I know you want everyone to get a chance to play, but dont let anyone borrow your jersey and play. Ever again.
  • Even after a career day for Aaron Murray, passing statistics dropped even farther out of relevance. Please dont let Aaron read this.
  • This week's least relevant statistic is the number of time our opponent attempts a 4th down.
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