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Why the Georgia Bulldogs Will Win the 2011 SEC Football Championship

I have good news and bad news.

The good news is that the Georgia Bulldogs are going to win the 2011 SEC championship. (Yes, in football.)

The bad news is that the ‘Dawgs are going to suffer an embarrassing loss in a BCS bowl game afterward.

If you disagree, consider this:

Star-divide

In 2005, the Boise St. Broncos opened their season against Georgia. The Red and Black went on to win the SEC and suffer an embarrassing loss to the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Sugar Bowl.

In 2009, the Broncos opened their season against the Oregon Ducks. Oregon went on to win the Pac-10 and suffer an embarrassing loss to the Ohio St. Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.

In 2010, Boise State opened its season against the Virginia Tech Hokies. VPI went on to win the ACC and suffer an embarrassing loss to the Stanford Cardinal in the Orange Bowl.

It doesn’t matter whether the Broncos win or lose their opener, where that opener is played, or with which conference the opponent is affiliated; if Boise State opens the season against a team from an AQ conference, that team is going to win its league championship and lose in embarrassing fashion in a BCS bowl game.

In 2011, the Broncos will open their season against the Bulldogs in the Georgia Dome. History says the Red and Black will be back in that building in December.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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the picture is too funny

Do you not know that those who run in a race all run, but only one receives the prize? Run in such a way that you may win.

I Corinthians 9:24

by Southern Dawg on Jan 7, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Kyle, your village callled....

….and said they want their Eternal Optimist back. Wow, I thought I was bad with my boundless faith in UGA to suddenly replace whatever it is in the water that used to be there early last decade.

I’d say that you’re guilty of Confirmation Bias, but there’s not even enough information to support that claim. Therein lies the problem with trying to identify trends within sports in general and, in this case, Boise State’s opening day opponent and their season’s success(?). Your data set is small, but still has too many shifting variables (coaches, players, other teams’ coaches and players) to be useful. Throughout history, college sports have proved that there’s a first time for everything. And yet…..

I’m ready to start planning the pre-SECCG tailgate and Goat Roast. Lately I’ve been wrong more often than not, so I’m going to say that there’s NO WAY this is going to happen. Unfortunately, that leaves the door open for Fate to either give us a BCS game victory or no BCS berth at all.

by Just Some Dawg on Jan 7, 2011 7:04 AM EST reply actions  

I'd say he's just guilty

of tongue-in-cheek humor. Its a funny series of coincidences, took a sharp eye to catch that trend.

But in seriousness, how probable is it? Looks to me like the East will come down to UGA & USC next year. Bray is improving but UT’s roster still lacks serious depth. UK is losing their only playmaker. UF…guhh, shitshow. So that means your early season matchup will likely be the tie-breaker in the East.

Educate me – other than AJ, who do the dawgs lose next year?

At war with the concept of the Venn Diagram

by Bourbon_Meyer on Jan 7, 2011 8:23 AM EST up reply actions  

Most likely OLB Justin Houston...which will hurt.

And possibly CB/KR Brandon Boykin….which will also hurt.

Besides that- WR Kris Durham who was a beast this year, two fullbacks and a couple of senior linebackers.

Could be worse.

by DawgGirl32 on Jan 7, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I think you're understating it a bit.

Clint Boling, Akeem Dent (leading tackler), Shaun Chapas (rates as one of the top fullbacks in the draft), and possibly Cordy Glenn and Trenton Sturdivant. Our situation is a bit more dicey than it appears.

by hailtogeorgia on Jan 7, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I understand you're sick...

but step away from the codeine.

"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell

by DavetheDawg on Jan 7, 2011 8:11 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Dude, if I had codeine, . . .

. . . you think I’d be typing (read: conscious)?

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 7, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Pass me some of that Kool-Aid

Heck, I’ll take winning the SEC and losing a BCS bowl game, at least we’d be “in the hunt.” Still, this is a lot of optimism and I’m not used to it around here.

by andycapps on Jan 7, 2011 11:00 AM EST reply actions  

Right now, I’d be happy for a winning season, anything else will be icing and cherries.

by Caviarhound on Jan 7, 2011 11:33 AM EST reply actions  

This sounds a lot like the...

predictions of the UGA/UF series turning around based on the 19-year historical trend. Or, that Greg McGarrity’s school affiliation, at the time, is the key to who wins or loses that game.

I love the optimism though!

by Winger5 on Jan 7, 2011 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

history only repeats itself...

if we’ve forgotten it. Although it would make sense… Georgia is the last SEC team to win the conference and not win the National Championship.

by mdhenshaw on Jan 7, 2011 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

I hadn't thought about that.

Georgia also is the last SEC team to reach the College World Series finals and not win the national championship.

We’re cursed.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 7, 2011 4:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Uga has lymphoma

What did do we to deserve this?

by mdhenshaw on Jan 7, 2011 3:36 PM EST reply actions  

I hate to admit it, mdhenshaw, . . .

. . . but I think it may be tied to Winger5’s 1:26 comment above. He made a good point about my efforts to tease out trends when none of them have the slightest predictive value in reality, but he praised me for my optimism.

As we all know, my optimism never ends well. I sincerely hope that my attempt to greet the new year with a positive attitude has not had a reverse-karma effect that killed our dog. I would feel really bad about that.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 7, 2011 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha ha, I haven't laughed that hard since I was a little girl...

that was a quote from Austin Powers, for you movie buffs. I guess that is just like the thought that we were afavorite or ‘darkhorse’ to win the SEC East this season.

by UGARegimechange on Jan 7, 2011 9:07 PM EST reply actions  

My pestimistic comment of the week...

Since I have built the rep of being Dr Doom of this blog, and I only visit when something ‘bad’ happens (UGA 8 with testicular cancer and we lost 2 recruits at the UA game), I think I should provide my comment for the week.
Once again, Coach Richt has proven that he is both blind and suffers from separation anxiety.
Separation Anxiety example…Strength and Conditioning coach Van Halanger relieved of dutes….BUT Richt leaves him on as an Admin Assistant..Another example of how CMR cannot let go of his ‘buddies’.
Suffering from blindness example…Both Bobo and Searels were given favorable reviews by CMR in his conference this week. Both were described as not doing a ‘good job’, BUT a ‘great job’! I can live with the fact that Richt is not releasing or shaking things up with his staff (even though I completely disagree with it), but to say these guys have did a GREAT job in their roles….really?
I think myself and many alum, fans, etc. just want some candid, real, evaluations and comments from CMR. It’s called holding people accountable. I think it would have went over much better with the frustarted GA alum and fans if he just called a turd, a turd. Challenge your coaching staff CMR! Just come out and say the areas they are responsible for did NOT perform well and we WILL turn this around NEXT year. I, HC CMR, will make sure of that!
CMR is not only afraid to release or let go of his ‘buds’, he is even hesitant to criticize or hold his coaching staff accountable. Let’s hope for some good news at the end of this month and we can reel in these recruits at the end of this month. Go Dogs! (not spelling Dogs D-A-W-G until we play like DAWGS!

by UGARegimechange on Jan 7, 2011 9:38 PM EST reply actions  

Another bad GA fact...

We are the only preseason number 1 in the past 6 seasons to finish outside the top 10 at the end of the season, lose 3 games (AL has lost 3 this seaosn but they get a pass since they won a national championship last year), not win their division in their conference or win their conference.

by UGARegimechange on Jan 7, 2011 10:11 PM EST reply actions  

This staff winning an SEC Title is a joke

and yes, I know they did in ‘02/’05 but our team is nothing even close to similar to those teams

by Alious on Jan 7, 2011 10:38 PM EST reply actions  

T Kyle King

I will take all of whatever you want to put on that.

ALL

by Thomas Brown UGA on Jan 8, 2011 2:10 AM EST reply actions  

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