Don't Bet On It!: Week Four College Football Forecasts Around the SEC
by T Kyle King on Sep 21, 2010 8:02 PM EDT
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PrintAlthough some have their doubts whether the Georgia Bulldogs any longer are playing SEC football, other teams in the league certainly are, and the Southeastern Conference has some key games on tap this weekend. My 6-1 record in last Saturday’s picks (thanks a heap, Ole Miss!) boosted my season-long ledger in SEC forecasts to 23-3, which surely sets me up for a fall as we head into week four, so, please, make sure you heed my weekly warning. Whatever you do, . . . Don’t Bet On It!
All of this week’s SEC games will be played on Saturday, September 25, because Thursday nights are for watching "The Cosby Show," "Family Ties, "Cheers," "Night Court," and "Hill Street Blues" mid-major conferences like the ACC and the Big East.
UAB Blazers at Tennessee Volunteers: Alabama-Birmingham scored 27 second-half points on Troy to overcome a 23-7 deficit at intermission. 59 of the 79 points allowed by the Vols this season were surrendered by Tennessee-Knoxville after the break. Don’t be surprised if the Blazers make this one mildly uncomfortable for the Big Orange faithful in the third quarter, but, in the end, this game will teach a valuable moral lesson when the unpaid workers selflessly donating their time for social betterment prevail against the marijuana-using slackers who lack all ambition.
Fresno St. Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels: The most compelling question of this game, of course, is which way Alan Autry, famous for being a Mississippi sheriff’s deputy on television and Fresno mayor in real life, will be rooting. The least compelling question of this game, of course, is which team will win, since even the Ole Miss fans in my family are warning me that I should pick against the Rebels. Naturally, I’m picking Pat Hill’s crew to be one of two sets of Bulldogs to win in the Magnolia State on Saturday. (Ha! Foreshadowing of my Georgia-Mississippi State pick! But, wait! They’re both the Bulldogs! So I told you nothing! Ha!)
Kentucky Wildcats at Florida Gators: We know already that the Sunshine State Saurians have been less than impressive. Despite averaging more than 34 points per game, the Gators have managed to score a total of just 35 first-half points against a suspect slate. Speaking of which, we also know what even Wildcat partisans acknowledge: "Kentucky's strength of schedule so far is abysmal. None of Kentucky's opponents have so far won a single game against FBS competition." With so little to go on in making a case for either combatant, I will fall back on the fact that Kentucky hasn’t beaten Florida since the first quarter of my freshman year of college. I’ll quit picking the Gators in this series once that trend ends.
West Virginia Mountaineers at LSU Tigers: Is there any chance the two schools will agree to cancel the football game and just let their mascots go at each other? Because I think it’d be cool to see the bearded guy in the coonskin cap with the musket fight Mike the tiger at the 50 yard line. I’m picking the Bayou Bengals to win the game, and I’m predicting that everyone within a four-foot radius of the postgame handshake between Les Miles and Bill Stewart will lose up to ten IQ points merely by virtue of being so close to the largest concentration of unrefined sideline stupidity since Curley Hallman coached alone.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Auburn Tigers: Here we begin the portion of my weekly picks which evidences the triumph of hope over experience. If Georgia, Arkansas, and South Carolina all win this weekend, I will feel much better about the state of the beleaguered Bulldog program and about the Red and Black’s prospects for the season. There is also some evidence to support the proposition that a team that claimed double-digit victories over Southern Miss and Georgia is superior to a squad that eked out a pair of three-point wins over Mississippi State and Clemson, so I’m going with the Gamecocks to emerge triumphant on the Plains.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks: I’m definitely going with the team that wears burgundy, returns an experienced quarterback, and is coached by a man who returned to the college ranks following an abbreviated stay in the NFL that ended in a way that left fans questioning the coach’s honesty. So far, both squads have rebutted my belief that they were overrated, but something has to give. With the game being played in Fayetteville Little Rock Evening Shade whatever city the Hogs have designated as their home town this week, I’m guessing the Tide’s nine new defensive starters are going to find out why Ryan Mallett was the SEC’s offensive player of the week. That’s right, I’m going with Arkansas.
Given the clear homer-at-one-remove bent of my last two prognostications, it should go without saying that no faith should be placed in my predictions, but, just in case you were thinking of wagering your hard-earned money on my wild-eyed forecasts, let me give you a little piece of advice that will serve you in good stead: Don’t Bet On It!
Coming Soon: National Games of Interest (such as they are).
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Arkansas has announced that if they should beat Alabama...
… they will play the rest of their home games in Texarkana as a tribute to Ryan Mallett. (Except on the Arkansas side, not the Texas side.)
In that case, vineyarddawg, you and I are going to an Arkansas home game, . . .
. . . and, on the way back, I will drive a truck full of illegal Coors beer with Russ in the cab next to me, and you will run blocker in a black Trans Am with podunkdawg riding shotgun.
Just be sure you block for me better than Washaun Ealey blocked for Aaron Murray, or Sheriff Buford T. Justice will get us both!
Go 'Dawgs!
better bring the beer with you
lots of counties along I-40 are dry. Just sayin’
I can bake like a demon.
It ain't never been done before...
… hot goat shit.
Also, you’d better make sure the beer is in your car, not mine, or else it might not survive the trip.
I admit to being a beer snob, but when it comes to Coors, I make an exception.
by vineyarddawg on Sep 21, 2010 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions
You picked Arkansas? lol. LOL. Any care to wager on that one? Oh, crap, nevermind.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Yeah, but that's straight up, not against the spread, . . .
. . . and I pick every game involving an SEC team (excluding Georgia’s games, of course), so I’m getting all the freebie patsy games in the mix, particularly in the early season.
23-3 is very misleading.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Sep 21, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll wait until you do lines.
And if you don’t, I’ll heed your warning and not bet on it.
Speaking of betting on it, anyone ever heard of a website (we’ll call it website X, I’m not telling this story as an ad for them, I just think it’s an interesting concept) where you buy and sell contracts on sports games? Kind of operates like a futures market. You take a long or short position on the outcome of a game. The value of that contract adjusts throughout the game depending on how the game is going. Very neat. I never partook (I’m not much of a gambler), but a friend of mine did and he stopped when he realized he couldn’t enjoy the game as much because he was too busy watching the contract values adjust throughout the games. Anyways, for a complete non-bettor like myself, I found the concept fascinating. Combining sports betting with financial derivatives for commodities.
That’s all. Just one of those neat things I felt like sharing.
by marktheshark on Sep 21, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Just looked it up and they don't exist anymore, as of two years ago.
It was called Tradesports.
by marktheshark on Sep 21, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Tradesports doesn't exist...
… mostly because the UIGEA ran off every internet company whose business was mostly based in the U.S.
There are other sites out there that do what you describe, though. They just don’t accept U.S.-based accounts now.
by vineyarddawg on Sep 21, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
It's all interesting and fun...
… but it’s worth noting that it’s virtually impossible to bet on sports anywhere except Vegas, due to the UIGEA. (Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, for those who haven’t heard of it.) Technically, gambling at one of those sites like the ones you mention, marktheshark, isn’t illegal. The UIGEA makes it illegal for any company directly or indirectly involved with internet poker or sports betting to perform any financial transaction involving any citizen of the United States. (Note that it’s not just citizens residing in the U.S., but any citizen of the U.S. that lives anywhere at any time.)
It is because of this loophole that I can still place bets at one of internet sports betting sites. I had a balance with them before the UIGEA came into effect, and I have not yet exhausted the balance I had at that time. (Note that I did not come to be into that situation by relying on Kyle’s betting acumen, however!)
Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the companies that own the Vegas casinos aren’t one of the biggest lobbying groups in favor of the UIGEA, because it gives them a monopoly on the sports betting market. Just one of the vagaries of politics… Casino operators and the Christian Coalition on the same side of the aisle on this one.
I won’t turn this into too much of a political discussion, but the UIGEA is one of the stupidest pieces of financial legislation the federal government has ever passed… and that’s really saying something.
by vineyarddawg on Sep 21, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
A correction
Alabama is going to destroy Arkansas. Like, three-scores destroy.
Everything else looks solid.
Auburn/USC
Mississppi State and Clemson are much better football teams than Southern Miss and Clemson, respectively. Your dogs will be 1-3 after a trip to Starkville, and Clemson would maul uga by 3 or 4 scores. They would likely shut you out 24-0. How’s the coach search going?
oops, no edit tool? Obviously I meant that Clemson is much better than georgia. georgia sux this year.
Thanks.
I hope your only two comments here were satisfying for you. You have just been banned.
Go 'Dawgs!
You were too quick for me
I just flagged the posts, then scrolled down and saw you already took care of it. Kudos
I've tried to be a little less quick to ban folks, . . .
. . . and politely-worded warnings have worked more often than not, but, when a guy calls himself “ugahater,” dismissively declines to capitalize “UGA” and “Georgia,” says Georgia “sux,” and absurdly claims that a mediocre ACC team that just blew a 17-0 lead to Auburn would “maul” Georgia 24-0 in a stunning reversal of a series the ’Dawgs have dominated since our last loss in 1990, the benefit of the doubt would not appear to be in order.
Go 'Dawgs!
South Carolina @ Auburn
Could this be the ’Cocks “Man Enough” moment?
If they win, it will obviously set up a “Man Enough II” moment a few weeks later against ‘Bama. This is a tough stretch which I don’t think they’ll survive. Until they prove otherwise, history is not on their side.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
I have it
on good authority that Pat Dye believes the Gamecocks aren’t man enough to beat Auburn at Auburn. At least not since 1932.
Certified Pimp and Agent Free since 2010.
by War Eagle Atlanta on Sep 22, 2010 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This Fort Hill Gentleman agrees with DavetheDawg here….I am not inclined to give the Poultry any benefits at this point. SC could easily lose 3 of the 4 games listed by another poster below, starting with a lopsided loss at Auburn this weekend.
Fair enough.
As I indicated, my last two predictions were heart picks, not necessarily head picks. Plus which, I warned y’all not to bet on it! :)
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Sep 23, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Understand you picking USC
But wouldn’t it be better for UGA is AU won? Or would it matter since AU is in the West?
DWWD -- WDE!
I'm operating from the (probably safe) assumption that Georgia is out of the division title race.
If I thought the Bulldogs had a chance of finishing first in the East, I would, of course, be rooting for South Carolina to stumble. However, for Georgia to win the division, we would need (i) the ’Dawgs to run the table, (ii) the Gamecocks to lose three conference games, and (iii) the Gators to lose a second conference game in addition to losing to Georgia in Jacksonville.
Any one of those three events might come to pass; two isn’t outside the realm of possibility; having all three break in our favor, however, will not happen. Accordingly, I believe it is in Georgia’s interests for Arkansas and South Carolina to keep winning. If the Bulldogs get back on track while the Gamecocks and the Razorbacks stay on track, the last two losses become respectable close contests against top 15 teams. If Arkansas and South Carolina fall apart, though, those losses just look bad in retrospect. Which way that breaks could affect Georgia’s bowl prospects.
You ask a reasonable question, though, and other Georgia fans may feel differently. That is simply how I see it, for whatever it’s worth.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Sep 22, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
The SEC is gone for Georgia in 2010. If South Carolina is as good as Georgia fans are hoping they are this year, then only the following scenario could result in Georgia going to the SEC Championship Game:
- Georgia runs the table, defeating Florida and Auburn in the process (extremely unlikely)
- Florida loses to Georgia and one of Alabama, LSU, or South Carolina (quite possible, except for the Georgia part).
- South Carolina loses to 3 of the following: Auburn, Alabama, Arkansas, and Florida (highly unlikely).
Any deviation from this scenario (other than an upset loss by these teams to Vandy, Kentucky, Ms. State, etc.) would, at best, result in Georgia losing the tiebreaker in the SEC East.
South Carolina is in the catbird’s seat at this point. All they have to do is lose 2 games or less the rest of the way and beat Florida (in a down year for the Gators).
by vineyarddawg on Sep 22, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There's another way, but it's probably more of a stretch.
Wouldn’t a 3-way tie in the East would be broken by the BCS standings? If so, we could also win the East if
(i) we run the table,
(ii) Florida loses exactly 2 SEC games BUT beats South Carolina,
(iii) South Carolina loses exactly 2 SEC games, and
(iv) we wind up ranked higher than both South Carolina and Florida in the BCS.
It’s an unlikely scenario for sure, but it’s not crazy given how fickle the BCS is, especially if we absolutely dominate the last month of our schedule, including convincing wins over Auburn, Florida, and Georgia Tech.
I’m certainly not holding my breath for this one, though.
Good point.
I was told there would be no math.
by vineyarddawg on Sep 22, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Florida is not unbeatable
By any means. Brantley looks pretty horrible.. The best player on their team is Demps, by far. They will be better by the time we play them, as we will be. But I don’t think they’re untouchable this year, by any means. Let’s get this Florida elephant off our back and realize that they’re not unbeatable, especially this year. They’ll always have at least a slight advantage of having that week off prior to playing us to rest and prepare for us even more, but I think we have a good shot at them this year.
I'm pulling for Carolina...
…because I hate Florida. And don’t sleep on Vandy. Any team that is coached up by a man who is brave enough to double as a Turkey Gyno could be trouble down the road.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Sep 22, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Anythings possible...
ii. The gamecocks have been known to die out mid-October before.
iii. FL will probably lose to AL in Tuscaloosa, then see “i”.
Of course the big ? there is number 1. Maybe not probable, but possible.
This long explanation that could have been truncated:
I hate Auburn.
You’re right about UGA being out of the race. USC has to stumble massively – losing two games in addition to the Alabama game. Florida has to lose to Alabama and us (or two other teams, and USC loses 4). Of yeah, and we have to start winning. Ain’t gonna happen.
And, we must ask, for what? The privilege of going to Atlanta to be worked by Alabama?
by first and thom on Sep 22, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not exactly apples-to-apples...
… but Alabama also plays South Carolina and Arkansas in close succession, albeit with the Gators thrown in the middle just for kicks and giggles. If the Tide come out 3-0 from that gauntlet (which is possible, but not probable), that will illustrate just how much better they are than Georgia this year, regardless of what else happens.
by vineyarddawg on Sep 22, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Getting to the game
Is better than we’ve done since 2005, so winning the East will still get us on another high profile game at the end of the year, which is good for recruiting. It’s also played in Atlanta, so it’s even better for us since it’s in our state. At this time of year, Alabama seems to be the men and we’d be the boys so if we played right now, it’d be ugly. But if a miracle happens and we ended up being in the SEC championship, if that discussion is even happening, we clearly will have improved quite a deal since then. Our OL would have had to have stepped up and dominating people, Ealey and King will be running over and around people, Aaron Murray will be fully comfortable and a game changer at QB, and AJ Green will cause opposing DB’s to whimper and cry at the mere sight of him. Like I said, we need a miracle for all that to happen and then for SCAR and Florida to lose several games, but I don’t think both of those are out of the question. Florida looks pretty bad, and we know how SCAR tends to fall apart after starting out strong, they just don’t have much depth normally.
All true, but right now, . . .
. . . 100 per cent of our focus needs to be on beating Mississippi State. Saturday night can’t make Georgia’s season, but it can break it. Thinking about making it to Atlanta—-for the SEC Championship Game, or even for the Chick-fil-A Bowl—-is a fool’s errand if we don’t take care of business this weekend. One game at a time, people.
Go 'Dawgs!
Definitely
I just still like to keep my eyes on a championship, as a fan. The likelihood of it happening is slim, but I expect that every year from the University of Georgia since we’re not a bottom feeder traditionally in the SEC. And I think all fans should expect that, though realistically we may know that the odds are against us when we have a freshman QB and start out 0-2 in the SEC.
And I don’t want the players to be looking past Miss State, they need to focus on getting the win.. And I’d really like our defense to be looking for a shutout. I’d like them to be pumped up and come out there and dominate. What’s the Erk Russell quote.. “If we score, we may win. If they don’t score, we’ll never lose.” Let that be what is written in our locker room this weekend for our defense to see and play by.
Go Dawgs!
Definitely
Those cowbells will be loud, for sure. And it’s a night game too so they’ll be even louder. I expect them to play us tough.
SEC Tiebreaker Procedure
First the process depends on whether we have a two way tie or a three way tie, but either way, there are several steps before we get to BCS Ranking being the tie breaker. From wikipedia:
Two-team tie-breaker procedure
1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
2. Records of the tied teams within the division.
3. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall record (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
4. Overall record vs. all non-divisional opponents.
5. Combined record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
6. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
7. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game.
Three or more-team procedure
1. (Once the tie has been reduced to two teams, go to the two-team tie-breaker format.)
2. Combined head-to-head record among the tied teams.
3. Record of the tied teams within the division.
4. Head-to-head competition vs. the team within the division with the best overall (divisional and non-divisional) Conference record and proceeding through the division. Multiple ties within the division will be broken from first to last.
5. Overall record vs. non-division teams.
6. Combined record vs. all common non-divisional teams.
7. Record vs. common non-divisional team with the best overall Conference (divisional and non-divisional) record and proceeding through other common non-divisional teams based on their order of finish within their division.
8. The tied team with the highest ranking in the Bowl Championship Series Standings following the last weekend of regular-season games shall be the divisional representative in the SEC Championship Game, unless the second of the tied teams is ranked within five-or-fewer places of the highest ranked tied team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the top two ranked tied teams shall determine the representative in the SEC Championship Game.
I can bake like a demon.
damn this post got complicated.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Okay -- My apologies!
I thought I was asking a “simple” question!
Really had no intent on causing the thread to veer off on a tangent - I hope the Dawgs do get things back on track this year (well, of course, except for the Auburn game…) and I think there’s much more talent, on the part of both players and coaches, than the current record indicates.
Anyway, take care of business this week in Cowbell Country -
DWWD -- WDE!
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