Too Much Information: Georgia Bulldogs v. Arkansas Razorbacks
All things considered, I felt about as good about last Saturday’s game as any sports fan can feel about a loss, and I’ve received some constructive criticisms about my dour attitude, so we’re going to mix it up a little bit, maybe even to the point of injecting a little optimism. Yeah, you read that correctly.
You know what else we’re going to do (and by "we," I really mean "I")? We’re going to postpone this week’s picks and get down to business regarding Saturday’s game right here and right now, and I’m not fooling around with a middling amount of data or a fair degree of detail. Strap yourselves in, because I’m going to bring you . . . Too Much Information!
The Georgia Bulldogs and the Arkansas Razorbacks have met on the football field twelve times, all of them during my lifetime. (I was not quite two months old when the two teams squared off for the first time in the 1969 Sugar Bowl.) The ‘Dawgs and the Hogs have played in seven different cities, including four bowl pairings and one SEC Championship Game matchup. The Bulldogs are 0-1 against the Razorbacks in Texas, 1-1 against them in Louisiana, 1-0 against them in Tennessee, 4-0 against them in Arkansas, and 3-1 against them in Georgia. Mark Richt is 5-0 against the Hogs.
Two games into the 2010 season, the Bulldogs have drawn nine flags, tied with Alabama for the third-fewest in the league. Georgia averages 27.5 penalty yards per game, tied with Mississippi State for the fewest in the conference. That’s right; the Red and Black are the least-penalized team in the SEC this year. I guess the players hadn’t heard how Mark Richt’s laxity had made them undisciplined or how Todd Grantham hadn’t made a huge difference in the way the team played, huh? (By the way, Arkansas ranks eleventh in the league both in penalties incurred and in penalty yards incurred; the Hogs average 55 penalty yards per game, matching the total yards the ‘Dawgs have lost on flags this autumn.)
Last year, Arkansas ranked 58th in the nation in scoring defense, 73rd in rushing defense, 89th in total defense, and 99th in passing defense. How bad were the Hogs on D? Arkansas State ranked ahead of Arkansas in all four major defensive categories. How much have the Razorbacks improved in 2010? They gave up 187 yards to a Division I-AA Tennessee Tech outfit that was held to 55 yards by Willie Martinez’s worst defense, and they gave up 188 yards to Louisiana-Monroe, or exactly 60 yards more than Coach Grantham’s defense conceded to the Warhawks’ Sun Belt sister school, Louisiana-Lafayette.
We all know about Washaun Ealey’s goal-line fumble against South Carolina, but did you know that turnover ended the only one of Georgia’s eight red zone trips this season not to result in points for the Red and Black? The Bulldogs’ other seven trips inside the opposition’s 20 yard line produced five touchdowns and two field goals.
Mark Richt-coached teams have acquitted themselves well against the opposite division, as 24 of his 52 SEC wins have come against the West and only seven of his 24 league losses have been at the hands of foes from the other side of the divide. Coach Richt is 10-4 against the SEC West in Sanford Stadium, with half of those home losses coming against annual inter-division rival Auburn.
With 120 minutes of playing time under their belts, the Classic City Canines have offset their two giveaways (one fumble and one interception) with four takeaways for a +2 turnover margin that is the fourth-best in the SEC. Yep, that lack of discipline is really getting out of hand in Athens, isn’t it? (By the way, the Razorbacks, who have lost three fumbles and tossed a trio of interceptions, are a league-worst -4 in turnover margin.)
Should the prospect of a shootout scare the Bulldog faithful? Not if history is any indication, it shouldn’t. Georgia won a shootout with Arkansas in Fayetteville last year, and the ‘Dawgs have scored 30 or more points on the Razorbacks in four of the last six series showdowns. If this one goes down to the wire, the Red and Black may take solace in the knowledge that Georgia is 3-0 all-time against the Hogs in contests decided by seven or fewer points.
Some of us were worried about Georgia’s defense up the middle during the offseason, and all of us are worried about it now, but Arkansas may be just what the doctor ordered for a Bulldog defense whose strength may be its secondary. Although the Razorbacks rank third in the conference in first downs with 47 (just two behind league leader Alabama’s 49), Bobby Petrino’s attack is decidedly heavy on the forward pass. The Hogs have moved the chains an SEC-best 30 times through the air, but the 16 first downs they have amassed on running plays are tied for the fourth-fewest in the conference.
In the Mark Richt era, the Bulldogs are 33-7 in road games, with the last of those losses coming in Columbia last Saturday. On the previous six occasions on which Georgia lost on an opponent’s home field under Coach Richt, the Red and Black bounced back, going 6-0 in the outings immediately following those away game setbacks.
That 6-0 ledger includes a 3-0 mark between the hedges and a 4-0 record in the four seasons following Georgia’s last SEC championship in 2005. I reckon those signs of decline aren’t quite as sure and steady as some of Coach Richt’s detractors would like to believe.
Look at the reasons for the Bulldogs’ struggles last weekend: difficulty defending a run-oriented offense centered around a strong tailback, timidity about unleashing a promising yet untested redshirt freshman quarterback, and the special challenge of playing a conference contest on the road. None of those problems will confront the Bulldogs next weekend.
Regardless of whether the NCAA hears the appeal of A.J. Green’s four-game suspension tomorrow, Caleb King should be back on Saturday, which will make the outing against Arkansas the first contest of the season in which both Ealey and King are available to play. Moreover, Coach Richt’s postgame remarks made it clear that the coaching staff plans to take the training wheels off of Aaron Murray and let him run the offense.
Yes, the Bulldogs were held to a paltry six points by South Carolina on Saturday. You know what? The Gamecocks held Georgia to nine points in 2001, and, in their next game, the ‘Dawgs scored 34 points on Arkansas. In fact, in the 14 seasons from 1996 to 2009, the Red and Black scored more points against their next SEC opponent than they had against the Palmetto State Poultry eleven times.
The Razorbacks were the Bulldogs’ next conference opponent after the Gamecocks in three of those 14 seasons. In that trio of campaigns, Georgia went 3-0 against Arkansas and averaged more than 41 points per game against the Hogs.
My Prediction: Georgia 41, Arkansas 31.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Georgia on my mind!
You know UGA and UF are the only 2 SEC teams that we don"t have a road win on and that scares the hell out of me this week. My prediction UA 30 UGA29 Can’t blame a fellow for hopeing. Get Ready Dawgs!
“I’ve received some constructive criticisms about my dour attitude, "
I noticed the link to my comment in the previous thread. First, I apologize again for my tone. I was frustrated. Second, I never realized the extreme pessimism was “part of the joke.” I guess I’m taking things too seriously when I miss the joke.
I’m just so tired of “rebuilding”. So tired of being always the bride’s maid and never the bride (no national title since 1980). So tired of getting behind the 8-ball early, and having to hope for other teams to lose. So damn tired of losing to Florida. I like that people respect our program and our Head Coach, but I’m sick of never being feared.
My family moved to Atlanta in 1977 when I was 5 years old. 3 years later, like most other 8 year old boys, I was pretending to be Herschel Walker jumping “up and over” for a TD in gym class or in the yard. I’ve been a die hard Bulldog fan ever since. I suffered through Goff. Suffered (a bit less than with Goff) through Donnan. I went to (and graduated from) UGA law school 1995-1998, and experienced nothing but bad or mediocre teams. I remember being happy when we got into a bowl game. :(
From 2001-2005, I thought maybe the suffering was over. But that is looking like just a temporary blip on the radar.
Since I became a fan in 1978, I’ve experienced 5 seasons that were truly special (1980, 1981, 1982, 2002, 2005), 3 that were enjoyable (1983, 1992, 2007), and the rest (22!!!) pretty much sucked.
I don’t know if we are snakebit or a victim of infinite bad timing or what. Either we have a freshman QB and a veteran OL, or a green OL and an experienced QB. Or we have a terrible d-coordinator and otherwise good team, or bad o-coordinator and otherwise good team. Or we have 97 injuries after a preseason #1 ranking, or a star playing who sells his jersey and gets caught.
This is the state of the program right now, as I see it:
1) Our strength and conditioning is horrible. This has becoming more and more clear every year. Other teams manhandle us. Nobody is afraid of us physically. Even when we play baby teams like ULL it doesn’t feel like “men vs. boys.”
2) Mike Bobo is not an elite offensive coordinator. Maybe he isn’t horrible (like Willie was), but he doesn’t have any particular genius for offense. Nobody else is trying to hire him away, and can you blame them? We won’t consistently win SEC titles, and likely never a National Title unless we have 2 excellent coordinators to go with our head coach. Spurrier was his own genius o-coordinator, but he needed Bob Stoops on defense to finally win it all. Urban Meyer needed Mullen AND Strong.
3) Either the kids aren’t buying in or they just don’t fear CMR. Discipline has absolutely gone out the window for the last 3+ years. Many people have said that you can only coach somewhere for 8 years or so and then kids stop listening. I do not want this to be the case for us. I like CMR. I respect CMR. I’d love for him to be our Bowden or Paterno. But for whatever reason, the kids aren’t listening.
To have Washaun Ealey say right to CMRs face that he won’t drive, and then he does???? In the same offseason that CMR already BOOTED a top QB whose mom worked for the athletic department? If he can’t strike fear in their hearts by kicking off a kid like Mett, then how can he? I don’t know the answer, but something is broken there and it scares me.
4) Our teams just aren’t physical any more. Maybe this is related to #1. Sure, we have occasional players like Marcus Howard or Justin Houston who, individually, are physical beasts. But overall its not happening. We don’t push people around. We don’t scare people. We don’t routinely have multiple guys like Thomas Davis or Greg Blue just destroying people.
5) Nobody fears us. People respect us, but they don’t fear us.
Anyway, that’s it for this rant. I hope things change, but I fear another year of missed opportunities and shattered dreams.
"and the rest pretty much sucked"
I hate to break it to you, but this is pretty much the essence of being a sports fan. Most teams have 5 years of glory followed by 20 years of ineptitude.
It’s part of what makes sport enjoyable.
Unless you’re a Yankees fan. Then you’re just a douche.
Lists like these are easy to make...
…for any team in the country except UA (and that’s only at this particular moment).
What it all comes down to is that we’ve had excellent average success under Richt, but no MNC. You know who else has never won an MNC? Every reigning BCS champion, ever. The reigning BCS champion is 0-15 in winning national titles. Now would you say that all 15 of those coaching staffs are incompetent? There are 2 Urban Meyers and 2 Nick Sabans in that group who had top 3 teams to start those respective seasons, btw.
The point being, if you pin your hopes on a very statistically unlikely event, don’t be surprised if you have to wait a while.
Why do I care about teams that didn’t repeat?
I’m happy with a season where we are SEC champ, or nearly SEC champ.
I’m not happy when we play catch-up all year and have to rely on other teams to lose in order to have a chance.
I’m also not happy about 5 years of “rebuilding.”
We haven't been rebuilding for 5 years.
So, you know, get that right at least.
Whoa, you are missing the point
This has essentially nothing to do with "teams that “didn’t repeat”, it is a statistical point that is meant to remove confirmation bias. Imagine that the “reigning MNC champ” is ONE team. It’s not sufficient to say that that team didn’t repeat, it has NEVER won the BCS in 15 years. The “coach” is, by your logic, a failure and not as good as the other coaches, even though he is an amalgamation of Stoops, Tressel, Saban, Meyer and a host of other coaches I would suppose you deem as competent
sorry to be nitpicky,
but since you said it twice – there have been 12 BCS champs, not 15.
And I’m aware that that’s entirely beside the point. ;)
Not entirely
Fair point. For some reason I thought the BCS started in ’96.
Oh,and to take it further...
…the reigning SEC champ has zero SEC championships this decade (0-10). Mark Richt has won two.
This is actually a statistical anomaly due to low sample size, but at least it’s an unbiased one.
No discipline = no real success
I agree with you Muckbeast. We will have no real success until we have discipline.
by NorthCarolinaDawg on Sep 13, 2010 8:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm all for discipline
But is there any evidence that this sort of discipline is positively correlated to success? If anything, my understanding is that the correlation is actually slightly negative.
Hoo boy.
Mike Bobo’s offense averaged 30 ppg in-conference last year with an INT-addled QB. If you can find an offensive coordinator that would have done better- and no, it wasn’t the one residing in Gainesville, a place we should legitimately be emulating- then I’d love for you to show him to us.
by D.N. Nation on Sep 13, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The AFC averaged a lot of points in the 80s and 90s, and that resulted in a lot of Super Bowl annihilations.
We were in a lot of track meets last year. That’s why we scored so many points.
EXACTLY!
Which is why I wonder how come we don’t run the score up and then go conservative? Instead, we play to the opponents (and by opponents, I mean real challenges, no UL-Laf) score. Open up the playbook and have some fun…conservative playcalling is just like the prevent defense—-neither one wins championships!
...and as far as discipline goes
Duke remains one of the least penalized and least arrest-prone (this year being an outlier) programs in the nation. So, you know, good for them.
by D.N. Nation on Sep 13, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
This is kind of a "man enough" game for us...
we got our whupping, how do we respond? Can we bounce back strong like 2007? Or do we crumble under negativity?
The line play was by far the most disappointing part of Saturday. Our line, expected to be the SEC’s best on offense, was unable to get any push against the Gamecock front, one that looked incapable of stopping the inside runs against Southern Miss. Meanwhile, their OL was blowing us off the ball 2-3 yards almost every play, which when combined with our pitiful tackling allowed Lattimore to look like the beast he was hyped to be. We’ve been challenged, and whupped up on. Are we man enough to play SEC football? (and our recent problems getting physically manhandled has to bring our S&C into doubt. Our SEC opposition has constantly looked stronger, faster, much more explosive on the field than we have for 2-3 years now).
As an LSU fan...
I am certain that our team is going to need a bit of help (ok, loads of help) to reach the SEC title game this year.
Believe me when I say I’ll be pulling for you guys this Saturday. And good luck the rest of the year.
T Kyle King, I don't want to steal your job, but I have a few more interesting facts about this game that I want to share
I know this might sound a little bit of a downer, but it is more of a reality check for the UGA football team.
1. QB Mallett has not won on an opponent’s home field since he took control of the Arkansas offense last year. If UGA loses this game, we will be the first team to be defeated by Mallett when their team is on the road.
2. A 2-1 start this year is possible going into the third week, but we could go 1-2 if we lose this one, and the outcome for the rest of the season isn’t good if that happens. The last time we started 1-2 was in 1996 during Jim Donnan’s first year as head coach. The 1996 squad finished 5-6 with no bowl. The next recent time when UGA started 1-2 was in 1993 during Ray Goff’s tenure. The same year, Arkansas defeated Georgia in Athens 20 -10. The 1993 squad finished 5-6 with no bowl.
3. Arkansas offense has averaged over 500 yards so far on offense.
4. Mallett reminds me of Matt Jones the QB from Arkansas about 6 years ago, very tall at least 6’5, throws a lot, and an extremely good arm. The few times we faced Matt Jones, UGA won at Arkansas 20-16 in 2004 and 30-3 in the SEC championship in 2002.
5. Early this year, Mark Richt really wanted Mallett to consider for the NFL maybe partly because Richt knew he had to play against him one day if he stayed. If I was a coach and the opposing quarterback threw over 400 yards and scored 40+ points against me and had to play him again next year, I would hope he went for the NFL, so I don’t have to play him again.
6. This is not a factoid, but I want to point this out. We will be hearing all those things about “Mallett hammers the Dawgs” or “Arkansas pounds the UGA defense with 350+ passing yards” if we lose this game. The punchlines and puns from the crazy commentaries will echo loudly and be tinnitis to our ears for the rest of the season if we drop this game.
Conclusion, this game is a MUST WIN for UGA, however, if we could score a lot of dang points, I think we’ll do it.
by thefirstgenesis on Sep 13, 2010 10:31 AM EDT reply actions
Point of order
Aside from being tall, Ryan Mallett and Matt Jones have virtually nothing in common. The fact is, they are polar opposites as QBs.
Matt was fast, a good scrambler, but had a poor arm. He held the SEC record for rushing yards as a QB until Tebow broke it. Not many would say that Matt had an extremely good arm and the Houston Nutt era Razorbacks didn’t throw that much. They relied on the run game.
Ryan isn’t fast, isn’t a particularly good scrambler (though he shows a willingness at times) and has a howitzer for an arm. The Petrino era Razorbacks rely on the passing game.
Arkansas fans believe that the Razorbacks would have won in Fayetteville last year if not for the Jerry Franklin ejection for bumping a referee. The Razorback defense was playing well up to that point and losing him changed the complexion of the game.
I think the key for a Georgia win is the pass rush. If Georgia can get a persistent pressure on Ryan Mallett in the pocket, they can force him into mistakes. If not, he will pick Georgia apart.
I think this game is a pick ’em, with a slight edge to Georgia.
Awww. c'mon girl.
All signs seem to point to letting Murray do his thing.
For better or worse, this may be the real coming out party.
A few things
I think the biggest thing we need improvement on in this game is our run blocking. In watching the game Saturday, consistently I’d see our defensive line getting shoved back several yards right after the snap. I saw none of that when we had the ball. So, Lattimore was running through massive holes, however, we were coming up and were in position to tackle, but we didn’t get it done. We probably won’t face another back with that kind of size who’s able to push us around like that. I do think Richt is right to think we need bigger guys as our front 3 (which was pretty irrelevant for this past week since we played with 4 down linemen most of the time anyway). They’ve got to occupy space there and that guy in the middle needs to be a beast. I really didn’t see a lack of coaching on Saturday so much as the wrong personnel being in there. Which either comes down to the coaching not having the right players in there to stop SCAR, or the players in there were not strong enough. I’m thinking we don’t have the right players, personally. Not to say our strength and conditioning is without blame, but our biggest guy out there was under 300 pounds. Of course he’s going to get shoved around by 5 offensive linemen. We need to get a defensive tackle in there that’s around 330 and get some ends in there that are around 280-300.
This week I think we can do okay if we make the changes I talked about pull those training wheels off Murray’s bike. He ended up making what, 14 of 21 passes which gives him a 67% completion percentage. Plus no interceptions. The kid is already light years beyond Cox in ability, and Cox was able to beat Arkansas last year. Let Murray do what he does best and allow him to run the ball some if he wants to. And for God’s sake, Bobo needs to stop insisting on running between the tackles when the OL can’t open up a hole the size of a needle. Bring back the toss sweep, pass to Ealey or King in space, something.. And start using our tight ends, those guys are a mismatch for any linebacker out there.
Pass Rush or Bust
I think this game will be decided, in our favor, by our pass rush. While our tackling was not spectacular against South Carolina we were getting a good pass rush most of the game. I felt that we were getting some penetration in the running game but were not able to effectively bring down Lattimore on a regular basis.
Arkansas is a transparently one dimensional team. Arkansas top rusher against LA-Monroe had 12 carries for 45 yards while Mallet threw for 400+. I feel like this(pass first) offense is what we are the most prepared to handle right now( although I’m not as suicidal on our rush defense as some- how many times did Moreno make fairly effective defenses look foolish?).
We brought pressure both up the middle and from the edge against Carolina and I’d look for more of the same against Arkansas. If Arkansas starts to run the ball effectively and we can’t tackle then we are going to be in trouble(both in that game and down the road).
I think the offense should score its share of point. Bobo/Richt offenses have been effective for the last several years. We were winning SHOOTOUTS last year when we had zero defense and were turning the ball over at an alarming rate. Our problem for the last two years has been our defense had little to no ability to either A) Create opportunities for the offense(turnovers, field position) and B) Hold the opposition to less than 30 points.
I’d also look for some more toss/sweep/outside type runs this week. We seemed to be more effective running the ball on the outside than in the middle against SC.
T. Kyle is the most cockeyed optimist I have ever seen with
respect to Mark Richt and his teams. So I am not even going to read his article before posting this___I assure you he always has the glass more than half full when looking at Richt and UGA. In any even, Mallett is, and always will be, just a big slow Big Ten quarterback who can throw it a mile if no pressure. Hopefully, Ark has no running game. In any event, I’ll be watching it from a skybox which is communist in and of itself.
Negative
Well my first post on this blog was yesterday so I can’ say I have a long history of being any sort of an apologist.
Richt has had failings. Moreno and Stafford’s last year was a disaster(but not because of the offense) and I thought at the time Richt should have been tougher and fired Martinez then. Last year I was of the opinion that if Martinez didn’t go that Richt was probably on his way out of Athens because the defense had been so unredeeemably bad for the past two years. This lead not only to some losses but also to the wasting of really excellent circumstances that could have gotten us to the national title game.
P.S.
I’m obviously not Kyle King, just defending us “reasonable” fans as not cockeyed anything.
I'm cockeye'd and unreasonable...
Prediction: We shut out Arkansas, put up 42 pts, everyone in the top 25 loses (cuz we’re not one of em), so we somehow make it into the top 10, and somewhere both Urban Meyer & Tebow simultaneously stub their pinky toes and cry.
Nice to see a little
optimism but………
Looking back will give you a sore neck quicker than you can say look back.
Figuring most teams change 1/2 of their roster every two years I can’t see the value of looking beyond last year.
For what it’s worth I see the Dawgs righting the ship and playing inspired ball.
"For what it’s worth I see the Dawgs righting the ship and playing inspired ball."
Honestly, so do I. I am in serious disappointment over the fact that Coach Richt and Coach Bobo were, for lack of a better term, afraid to let Aaron Murray play the way he is capable of playing. I am certainly NOT paid millions, or even thousands or dollars to coach college kids, but in my coaching of HS kids, I can tell you that when you don’t allow a kid to play his game within the parameters of the offense and/or defense the team is operating, well, that kid is too concerned with doing what Coach wants to be effective. I think that was partly the case Saturday. Were there other issues, sure. We’ve discussed those in multiple posts, multiple times. We’ve been almost as multiple in our responses to the other issues as Coach Grantham’s defense.
In short, allowing Aaron Murray to just play the game should make a huge difference in how the offense operates. If AJ is back, we’ll never really know how much difference it makes, but that would be OK too.

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