Optimism Reversal - I mean, it can't get any worse, right?
by tankertoad on Jun 26, 2010 11:35 PM EDT
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PrintAs I previously stated, I am going to break down why 2010 will make us all feel better about the football program in general.
So, here are my first four points of discussion. I am picking these particular four as "couldn't be worse" because we did so horribly in these areas I feel we can only improve - I mean, it couldn't be worse, right?
1) turnover ratio
2) tackling
3) Personal Fouls
4) no gimmick uniforms
Now - I know you want to hear about some deeper level stuff, and we will get there. But to begin with, without Joe Cox mixed in with Bobo, I don't see how we can't improve in the turnover arena. Also, knowing our two 'fo sho' "we run this state" RBs are set and have experience, their ball handling should improve as well. Even if we ended up with the same W-L ledger in 2010 as 2009, which I don't believe we will, I don't think it will feel anywhere nearly as awful. We started a 5th year Senior with a flu (or did he, we never really got that straight) and treated him like he was Stafford. He wasn't. What was frustrating was as bad as his looks were, was also the fact Coach Bobo kept asking him to do that. With a Freshman QB at the helm and what I believe to be less pressure (more on this in a further post) on CMR to worry about the defense, I believe CMR can do what he does best - work with a youngster and maybe get more involved in play calling. With our two running backs and some absolutely stellar TE's, there is no reason to think we won't dramatically improve in the turnover arena.
Tackling. When you get down to it, if you can block and tackle better than your opponent, your play book doesn't have to be that great. And our tackling was beyond pathetic last year. The addition of CTG as hands on coach um up guy - I believe our fundamentals on tackling will improve, which will help all things D regardless of scheme. More on the 3-4 and the secondary later, but if we simply swarm to the ball, hit and wrap up, it would be an improvement. It's an obviously needed one, so I expect improvement. And this, combined with the lower INT numbers, will help prevent the insanity of shootouts with South Carolina and Arkansas we saw last year.
Personal Fouls. This is another known unpleasant issue, and it has gotten so out of hand I don't know it from his words, but I deeply feel it in my gut that CMR will institute some of the strictest punishments we have witnessed for on field stupidity. We were at one point the second to last ranked team in penalties last year and you could put $100 a game a PF was coming at some point. Sure, I agree with T Kyle, it's an emotional game and scoring a TD at a critical moment is an emotional point. But listen all things. place, people Bulldog Nation: We know we are going to be looked at, we know it's coming, we know we get no slack, so be a little more professional, celebrate when the clock says 0 and we have a W. I fully expect much improvement in this area.
Gimmicks. Weird one for me to mention, huh? I fully expect ZERO gimmicks this year. No running on the field, no black hats, no weird motivational stunts. The addition of three amazing Defensive Coaches will allow CMR to get away from the wacky and focus on - well, focusing. We have the talent, there is no need to try any more stunts. I think the writing is on the wall on this one and CMR is going to return to the cold, steely eyed surgeon we know him to be. If we see a stunt or a uniform change - the world will unleash on CMR and I think he knows that pretty clearly now. You don't need a black hat to get motivated when playing Florida. Playing them is enough.
Although I have some more positive thoughts ahead - I simply feel improving in these basic areas buys us at least one more win than last year, but certainly not more loses, and at the least, maybe we won't feel like our stomachs are being ripped out from the crazy we continually witnessed last year.
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All great points
rec’d
"Sometimes I think it is a great mistake to have matter that can think and feel. It complains so. By the same token, though, I suppose that boulders and mountains and moons could be accused of being a little too phlegmatic."
-Kurt Vonnegut, "The Sirens of Titan"
by Bravely going forward on Jun 27, 2010 1:48 AM EDT reply actions
Here are the problems with "it can't get any worse" thinking:
1. History offers little hope that this is so. We frequently think it can’t get any worse right before it does.
2. As my old law school roommate used to say, “Even when you hit rock bottom, you can still wallow from side to side.” Even if matters have gotten as bad as they can possibly get, there’s no guarantee they’re going to improve. As evidence of this, I would point out that poor tackling, personal fouls, and gimmick uniforms all were obvious errors in 2008. None of them improved in 2009.
Go 'Dawgs!
I love you Kyle
the line “you can still wallow from side to side” reminded me of the old Eazy-E rap song line “I hit front and back and side to side, …….then I let the Alpine play…”
1) my history is based on CMR’s record of not making excuses for failed areas and, although a touch too long at times, agressively addressing them when he does and making marked improvement. I also think with what I know consider the greatest coaching staff ever assembled as a whole (Bobo being the weakest link) CMR can do an even better job of being the top dawg, but also, hopefully, gettting a little more hands on himself working with the young QBs.
2) Gimmick uniforms if scene again will get CMR so totally annilated in the press and with fans it simply can’t happen if he wants to keep his job. CMR has searched the cupboard for motivationial tactics in the last years and he knows this one is a failure. IF he does it again – well, first I don’t see Damon Evans approving it, but if he does it again, he will either need to win by a landslide, or, for the first real time ever, be “on the hot seat”. He’s just to smart to go down that road again. I see him as working the team hard and keeping them focused.
3) We hoped Joe Cox would come through as a senior last year. He didn’t. There is a reason he never played much and last year we were left with few options. I think if we would have known just how bad he was, we would have considered last years ledger a good one. We have many, many returning players, our RB situation is settled, and even if we have he same W-L record as last year – I just don’t think it will be as ugly.
4) I have been complaining about the PFs since you started a blog and CMR was coach. This one scares me. It has to change and improve. We simply can’t lose like we did to LSU over stupidity. Wecost ourselves a win, in what, 2003 when we had that PF against Florida and ended up losing. Or was it 2005? See my point? I can’t give historical evidence or facts that the PF calls will improve, I can only say CMR MUST address it at this point in a new found, serious way. If not, I will get on the “hot seat” bandwagon myself.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
They're only "gimmicks" when they don't work
I felt pretty good about the black unis after we beat Auburn with them. Doubly triply quadruply an order of magnitude moreso after the celebration and win over Florida. That sure wasn’t “fake” juice.
Personally, I’m pinning my hopes on an easier schedule, a likely regression to the mean in regard to turnovers, and the fact that it’s likely either the defense will gel and see significant improvement or Murray will slip into the offense like that glove of his and they’ll be able to keep us in any game we’ll play this year.
Though I agree with Kyle: “Can it get any worse?” is a really, really bad question to ask, in any situation. That’s what Michigan fans said after 2007 . . . and 2008.
Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.
I consider them gimmicks whether they work or not - but I hear what you are saying.
I actually plan to hit up the easier schedule in a future post. )
Fair enough on the “can it get any worse” point I hadn’t really thought of it that way, but I do feel that in the areas of turnovers and penalties, it can’t get any worse, because, well, we were the worse. It can only go up, unless we stay in last place in those arenas. And I simply don’t think we will with a much smarter, more hands on defensive staff and a much improved special teams coach and CMR’s brain hopefully being freed up a little more.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
On the matter of CMR's brain
I remember Hale reporting (I miss him already) that he was taking a more active role in the offensive meetings this off-season, which, if it carries over into the regular season, means A) we’ll have CMR’s experience to temper Bobo’s occasional “brain farts” and B) he trusts that the D is in good hands.
Just another little ray of hope.
Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.
Point #4, with one exception:
Red pants, on the road. That’s one awesomely cool look and it really isn’t a gimmick, it’s just a uniform style that used to be part of an infrequent rotation for our travellin’ look from time to time. And since it’s the 30 year anniversary of the 1980 season, and we opened on the road in Knoxville that year wearing them, I think it’s one little carrot that Richt could dangle if everyone does ther job.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
if it doesnt involve black or the UF game - sounds cool. Maybe an option for GT or Auburn. but i would rather see no uniform changes the entire season.
in fact. I would almost rather see a no G on the hats and they have to earn them or something along those lines. But that won’t look good in photos and it would be hard to pin the exact “you’ve earned it” point down. So, our standard home and away uni’s is what we need this year. Focus on focusing, focusing on the moment, focusing on giving 100% every second of the clock and then look up and say “we win!”
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Well, I understand and I don't like the black hats, but
the black shirts were pretty nice looking, in my opinion. I wouldn’t mind seeing them in the rotation for a few games every year, most notably night games. Maybe not unleash them for games of national championship significance (read Bama or Florida) but against some of the other teams where it isn’t so much of a distraction.
well... i know you are bullish on the improved defense...
but the upshot of improved tackling and such may be diluted by the adjustments to a full on 3-4 scheme. it took a full season for saban to make it work in tuscaloosa. i have a hard time thinking grantham beats that learning curve.
i’d be interested in seeing the numbers behind your turnover ratio concerns tho…
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
uh - didnt Saban go undeafeted in the regular season his first year? how is that taking a full season? did i miss something?
TKK can grab the numbers quickter than I can, but we were at about -16 in turnover ratio last year at one point. if you take out the two easy kills – Joe Cox averaged 2.5 INTs a game.
I will address more on the 3-4 in a future post?
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
2008 was Nick Saban's second year in Tuscaloosa.
His first year, in 2007, the Tide were decidedly mediocre, complete with a loss to Louisiana-Monroe. ’Bama finished 7-6, if memory serves.
Go 'Dawgs!
my bad - well, he certaintly turned it around in a hurry
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
yeah. but shula wasn't the world's worst recruiter
as this year’s draft haul attests. but the first year was mucho rocky and partly because of the transition to a pretty complex defensive scheme. mcclain himself said he spent most of ’07 figuring out how it works and most of ’08 mastering what he was supposed to do in it.
i’m curious because the turnover margin is one that’s been leveled at alabama quite a bit this off season. with one of the best in the country last year and most of the pundits predict we’ll fall off the cliff in ‘10. as usual, when you go through the numbers, it’s not so clear cut.
the number of turnovers have dropped significantly under saban and our secondary was ungodly good last year. so a dropoff doesn’t necessarily mean disaster. the main thing the number suggests is it will be a rough season for a green secondary – but we already knew that.
thus, it makes me wonder if the common perception of georgia’s TOM was a clear representation of the actual situation.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
but then again - bama was ALREADY a mess from Shula - so, I wont buy into it was the 3-4, Saban had a LOT to fix
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Scores of Bama's 2007 losses (sorry to dredge up bad memories)
26-23 (UGA)
21-14 (FSU)
41-34 (LSU)
17-12 (MSU)
21-14 (ULM)
17-10 (AU)
Those are some pretty paltry offensive numbers (excepting the LSU game). Likewise, except for the LSU game, the D kept all their opponents to 21 points or less in regulation. The blame for the ’07 losses lies as much with the offense as with 3-4 growing pains.
I think it’s probable that the 2010 Georgia offense will be able to score more consistently than that. Murray remains the wild card, though.
Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.
I don’t understand why people complain about Bobo passing too much early. Last year we had Samuel plowing for 2 yds per carry or nothing at all until LSU. Sure Bobo has a predilection for the milking short passes until it draws blood, but the bottom line is if you can’t run, you have to move the ball.
It would have been even more asinine to NOT attempt to get the ball to A.J. despite the fact that Cox was not good with pressure.
Also, I’m truly filled with OL Koolaid, but watch the first half of Texas A&M over and one has to worry somewhat that the OL may not be as consistent as we all THINK it should be. At least that is my worry. Which half is the OL for 2010 Texas A&M first half where the couldn’t run at all or the 2nd half where the 2 fullbacks ran straight up the gut for 6 yrds per carry?
I'm with you on Bobo passing.
I also still don’t get this “Cox was so terrible” stuff. His INTs were awful but the kid threw for a lot of yards and touchdowns, too. And the reason why he was asked to do so much is because we kinda needed him to. We had no run game, a reshuffled o-line and a bunch of inexperienced receivers. Why do you think Cox locked onto AJ so much- he was the only receiver with experience. Sure, sometimes he was absolutely maddening with his turnovers, but he was also put into a really unfortunate situation. I think we can only blame him so much.
I don't want optimism
I don’t feel a need for it, or a particular desire to feel it. I just want winning with class.
There is no rule that says that turnovers regress to the mean. There is no reason that we will have fewer PFs. Our coaches have to coach and our players have to play. If they do their jobs, we’ll get better.
yes, there is. it's called basic math...
turnover recovery is an inherently random act. once the ball hits the ground you have a 50/50 chance of picking back up. so if you have a lot one year, the law of averages suggests you should expect a return to the mean. and theres a good bit of statistical analysis that has been done to back this up.
what you might be alluding to is turnover occurrence. because not throwing as many picks or allowing as many fumbles most certainly can be affected by the players and altered by proper coaching. but those fewer times the ball does get away, it’ll still be subject to the above.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
If I flip a coin
and it lands heads up all 10 times I flip it – on the 11th flip what are the chances it will land tails up?
50%.
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
thread jacker!
lets talk about how we arent going to see black hats or jerseys this year )
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
that's kind of my point...
even if you have a ton of bad luck last year the odds of you having an inordinate number of fumbles fall your way is not very likely. the regression is to the MEAN not to equal out overall.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
After -16
I’ll take “regression to the ‘not very good’,” since it will represent a “regression from ‘the mind-numbingly abysmal’”
Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.
this is exactly what is being suggested...
georgia had a -16 turnover margin in 2009. we shave off the interceptions from that (since they are not a random event) and look at just the fumbles… the bulldogs picked up just two fumbles and lost eleven for a truly abysmal total of -9. but since fumble recovery is random and subject to regression to the mean the chance of just recovering just 15% of your fumbles is not likely.
the bulldogs are not likely to see such abysmal luck recur… the law of averages suggests the recovery total will be much closer to 50% this year (since, as podunkdawg ably pointed out, you have a 50% chance every fumble to pick it up). so if georgia has 13 fumbles again this year just like last year, it’s much more likely the total the bulldogs will recover will be nearer to six than two. and think what six recoveries would have done for you last season.
but to really bring the TOM number down you need to stop dropping the ball, stop throwing picks and forcing more of the same from your opponents. that’s the part the coaches can affect and, most likely, are working on during the summer.
Roll 'Bama Roll: The Champagne of 'Bama Blogs.
I appreciate the response
But still disagree on the empiracal assumption implicit in your argument. The mean of a sample will regress to the mean when the mean is there for a reason.
What is the “mean” turnover ratio for the Dawgs and – more importantly – why is it? Unless someone can explain to me the mechanism by which turnovers will regress, I simply don’t buy the argument that turnovers will regress. There is no law of turnover gravitation.
The argument seems to be that the dawgs are performing worse than the mean, so they will regress to whatever the mean is. But how do we know?
The “law of averages” is not a law. Not everything returns to a historical average. Sometimes the amount of statistical noise gets in the way. Sometimes the underlying paradigm shifts. Does life expectancy regress to the mean? Do NFL salaries? The size of the internet? Heads or tails coin flips do, but I think we trust induction far too much.
by first and thom on Jun 29, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
As someone who grew up in the 1970s and came of age as a fan in the 1980s, I cannot wrap my brain around the idea that the Florida Gators’ success from 1990 to the present is anything other than an aberration, yet it is a fact that the last 20 years have been no fluke.
There are reasons for the Gators’ rise, from the hiring of better coaches to the building of better facilities to increases in revenue to increases in the state’s population. As attested to by the fact that Ron Zook (by no means an unrepresentatively bad Florida coach from an historical standpoint) was fired, the Gators have simply raised their average.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Jun 29, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I thing we're hung up on semantics here
No one is saying (at least, I’m not saying) that Georgia’s TO margin must return to zero. What I’m saying is this: – 16 is a statistical outlier. Out of 96 squads fielded in the SEC between 2002 and 2009, UGA’s TO margin last year was the third worst in that span. Over the course of those eight seasons, only two teams posted double-digit negative TO margins in consecutive years: MIssissippi St. and Vandy. Georgia’s “mean” for the seven years preceding 2009 was 3, and their previous low in that span was – 3. The argument is that last year’s TO margin was historically and improbably bad.
Must UGA’s TO margin improve in 2010? Obviously not. Things can always get worse, or stay the same. But when when your TO margin is an obvious outlier and 19 spots worse than your own “mean,” it is likely that your margin will improve.
Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.
I will never use these words in regards to our program ever again
I am now fully accountable for a disaster at my alma mater.
I am truly sorry DawgSports fans and to the entire Bulldog Nation.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
It takes am an to recognize his failures and own them.
And it takes another man to mock him.
Having been in the first category too many times, I will gladly scurry over to the second for a minute.
This is all your fault. There are malevolent forces at play here that we cannot imagine, and you have carelessly attracted their attention to our lowely corner of the world with you hubristic optimism like a child shooting an empty water pistol at a tank – indeed, “the glass is half-full,” you say, but you fail to recognize that it is half-full of burning, acidic magma that is suspended above our heads by the slenderest gossamer (such thread being tended by a sadistic arachnid who recently named his multitude of spawn after each player who has ever converted a first down or scored a touchdown against the Dawgs or tackled a Georgia player (I would add “picked off Joe Cox,” but even spiders don’t have that many babies) and who thinks that Urban Meyer is a soft-fleshed wuss who doesn’t hold grudges long enough) and which is rapidly filling with an ever burning, ever increasing, ever reeking inanimate agent of our imminent demisem such demise to commence quickly but yet last unto the very fringes of eternity.
But all’s forgiven.
by first and thom on Jul 1, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I also takes a man to proofread his posts...
So I will return to being the first after trying to be the second and failing to be the third.
by first and thom on Jul 1, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
very nice metaphor!
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
yea, lots of people did. Now Kyle will not joke about locking me up in a room, he will ensure it happens.
I still am very excited about CTG and the 3-4, but I will chose my words much differently.
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
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