Five College Football Teams That Won't be as Good as Advertised in 2010

… as a fan post just as soon as I can figure out how to work, watch the World Cup, and do anything else at all. Having looked closely at the schedule, though, I can quite readily agree with Kyle that 8-4 is a distinct possibility. South Carolina and Arkansas could conspire to cause us to limp to a 2-2 start, and Colorado won’t be the pushover you think they will be, either.

So, the Gamecocks and the Hogs are two losses, and the other two could come courtesy of the following (in order of my opinion of likelihood): Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Tech, Colorado.

It’s quite possible.

I said Georgia Tech wouldn’t be as good as advertised. Neither will we, so we certainly could lose to the Yellow Jackets, although I think South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn are the more likely culprits.

No one’s talking about the ball rolling against us; I’m talking about fielding a new quarterback who’s never taken a collegiate snap and fielding an entirely new defensive scheme for which the current crop of players wasn’t recruited.

Take a look at the second-half scoring in last year’s game at Grant Field. Mike Bobo deserves considerable credit for that victory. Wilie Martinez? Not so much.

I will grant that the Peter principle may have gotten the better of Willie, and that he may be better as just a position coach . . . but defensive backs remained his area of position responsibility, and the Bulldogs got worse at that position throughout Coach Martinez’s tenure as defensive coordinator. I don’t wish the man ill, but my criticisms are justified.

Can we really be true to the legacy of Wally Butts, Vince Dooley, and Larry Munson while being upbeat?

True, they lost a ton of defense, but they still have the best RB in the league….and quite possibly the best 2 RBs in the league. That helps the offense put together long drives that keeps a young defense off the field.

As far as this:

If a Florida team that returned the entire defense and backups, struggled at times and couldn’t live up to the hype, what makes everyone think Bama will.

Bama will be under similar pressure – where anything short of an undefeated national title basically equating to failure. While that is more than a little unfair, If they can avoid half the distractions that we had last season, they have a fighting chance in my opinion,

Bama will be tough to beat, don’t get me wrong, but all of the "dynasty" talk makes me want to vomit.

not quite sure where you heard this “talk” but i’ve yet to hear the d-word come out of the mouth of any bama fan i know. the consensus is we are the team to beat and we like our chances against everyone on the upcoming slate. saban’s very clear on this point, the focus isn’t playing to win a championship – that’s a given for everyone – but rather to play at the best of the team’s ability every single game.

skigator and poseur probably hit the nail on the head. given the national championship and the two year regular season run without a loss in the regular season, the expectation level is through the roof. any loss will be seen as a disappointment (although i don’t think we’d classify it as failure – the shula era wasn’t that long ago).

there are a lot of reasons to believe alabama is going to struggle at points this season. that said, none of these are worse than the concerns expressed about the squad going into the 2008 campaign. and now the experience and depth are there to help take up the slack.

so saying this team won’t be good as advertised is a bit of a canard. it’s the top billing that make the case here, not the fact the team won’t be good. or, to put it another way, there’s good reason to believe alabama will win any given game on the schedule but it is also true to say it’s likely at least one team will find a way to beat the odds over the course of the season.

Part of it is my true belief that they are overrated, and part of it is my feelings for Petrino and my deep rooted hope for his failure.

As a Gator, I want UGA to fail, but I can’t image another season like 2009. I think Aaron Murray has talent, but he might have enough South Tampa in him to screw it all up. (See: Robert Marve, Stephen Garcia.)

. . . but very rarely can you go all the way:

Consider some of the great offensive powerhouses in recent college football history. The 1983 Nebraska Cornhuskers. The 1987 Oklahoma Sooners. The 1995 Florida Gators. The 2003 Oklahoma Sooners. The 2005 U.S.C. Trojans. How did those teams fare in the national championship game?

They lost, either because their offenses were stifled by great defenses (Oklahoma was held to 14 points both in the ‘88 Orange Bowl and in the ’04 Sugar Bowl), their weak defenses couldn’t stop quality offenses (Miami scored 31 points in the ’84 Orange Bowl and Texas scored 41 points in the ’06 Rose Bowl), or both (Nebraska outscored Florida by a 62-24 margin in the ’96 Fiesta Bowl).

Not coincidentally, those programs’ fortunes were improved when the emphasis was on playing top-drawer D. The mighty 1983 Cornhuskers gave up 21 or more points in three of their last four regular season games, giving hints of the troubles that awaited them against Miami in the Orange Bowl. When the Big Red Machine upgraded its speed on defense, though, Nebraska held each of its last seven regular season opponents to 17 or fewer points in 1994 . . . then claimed the national championship with a 24-17 win over the Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl.

The same held true for Florida in 1996, the year after the Gators’ Fiesta Bowl debacle against the aforementioned Cornhuskers. Throughout the Steve Spurrier era in Gainesville, the gunslinger mentality caught up to the Ol’ Ball Coach year in and year out, as his quick-strike offenses produced overworked defenses who came up short in a big way at least once a season.

Florida won nine or more games in each of the Evil Genius’s first six seasons in The Swamp, but his losses were due to defensive lapses almost invariably. The Gators surrendered 45 points apiece to Tennessee and Florida State in 1990, surrendered 38 to Syracuse and 39 to Notre Dame in 1991, surrendered 31 to Tennessee, 30 to Mississippi State, 45 to Florida State, and 28 to Alabama in 1992, surrendered 38 to Auburn and 33 to Florida State in 1993, surrendered 36 to Auburn in 1994, and surrendered 62 to Nebraska in 1995. Along came Bob Stoops, who upgraded the Gator D . . . and, lo and behold, Florida won a national crown.

. . . but I was listing two separate advantages, not suggesting that one caused the other. (In fairness, though, I can see how that sentence could be read that way.)

My point was that the percentages disproportionately broke the Yellow Jackets’ way in two key categories, which is unlikely to be repeated. Once again, though, you make a reasonable point, and I appreciate the clarification.

… that brings us to 2-10, ensuring that we’ll beat Louisiana-Lafayette and Idaho State. Where are the other 6 wins coming from?

All Aaron Murray has to do is avoid being the red-headed interception machine that Cox was, and I honestly don’t see how the defense could do anything but improve. You also have to consider the fact that having a turnover margin is one heck of an anomaly. We should, at the very least, be able to cut that in half just based on the law of averages. I could see the Dawgs going 8-4 this year, but that’s probably on the lowest possible end of expectations. I say 9-3 or (gasp!) 10 to 11 win season if the chips fall right.