Signing Day Wrapup 2010: The Rorschach Test of Your Fandom.
For perhaps the first time since I began seriously paying attention to University of Georgia football recruiting in the year 2000 (and covering it in 2006) I am glad to put National Signing Day in the rearview mirror. This recruiting period has been draining and frustrating, largely because there just hasn't been a lot of obviously good news to report. Things hit their apex sometime in June or July, and it's been essentially downhill since then.
Look, I'm not going to sugarcoat things. This recruiting class was not up to the standards we have come to expect from Mark Richt's staff, at least when measured by the criteria we have available right now. Right now, Rivals ranks this class #16 in the country. And it hurts even worse because 3 of the top 10 are on our schedule next year (and every year for that matter), and 5 of the top 10 are in our conference.
If you believe the recruiting rankings, we lost ground today. Of course, Georgia is also 1 of only 3 teams in the top 25 with fewer than 20 commitments. Also, if you rank classes by "star average" (that is, the average rating applied to each recruit in a class), Georgia's group jumps to #13, even with the addition of 2 star wide receiver Lonnie Outlaw (whose commitment was first reported, as best I can tell, by Kyle in today's open comment thread). Without Outlaw, we'd move up to #9. And frankly there's really not a whole lot of difference between Tennessee's 3.44 star averaging class (ranked #9) and Ohio State's #26 ranked, 3.39 star averaging class.
But this should not have been unexpected. This is what happens when 3 of the assistants you had on the road recruiting are cut loose going into the last two months of recruiting season. It's also what happens when you stumble to an 8-5 record and an Independence Bowl win, and your head coach has to change his recruiting pitch from "we're on the cusp of playing for it all" to "Please be patient. Just trust me, we'll get it worked out." That just doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in your program.
All in all, this class reminds me a lot of the class of 2007, the class that signed after the last "worst season of Mark Richt's tenure." In fact, based solely on Rivals' assessment, the two classes are almost identical. The 2007 group included 12 4-star recruits, 10 3-star recruits and a lone 2-star recruit. This one includes 9 4-stars, 9 3-stars and a lone 2-star. I said then that the class included a lot of guys who we would need to prove the recruiting services wrong. In that class, several of them have.
The lone 2 star recruit was some kid named Drew Butler. He was a bust, wasn't he? We also signed a 3-star tight end/offensive lineman named Clint Boling. All told, as many as 14 of the 23 guys in that class made significant contributions in the Classic City, and several others (Tanner Strickland and Charles White for example) still have the chance to do so. Rennie Curran, Jarius Wynn and Corvey Irvin became immediate contributors on defense. Aron White and Justin Houston have each progressed every season.
Another funny thing about this class is that while the overall ranking is poor, I like almost every guy in the class individually. It's a class that lacks star power, but not a lot else. You already know about the bluechippers in this group. Brent Benedict is an athletic offensive lineman who could play either guard or tackle. Garrison Smith is a physical specimen. But there are several 3-star or lower ranked players in this class who deserve notice.Looking at some of these guys, it's easy to get excited about their potential:
- Lonnie Outlaw, WR, Wilcox County: The last guy Georgia offered on signing day who was nowhere to be found in any recruiting service's database was some guy named Tim Jennings. I was going to try to get him on the phone about the Lonnie Outlaw signing, but apparently he's in Miami on business. Outlaw may be one of the guys who fits Coach Grantham's stated objective of getting a few 6'5 to 6'6' "tweeners" in every class. No matter what the motivation, he almost certainly will spend one season at GMC in Milledgeville before getting to Athens. The best quote regarding Outlaw came from former Perry High Coach Andy Scott, whose opinion I respect, and who said "Lonnie Outlaw makes Fred Gibson look like a girl." Take that for what it's worth.
- Brandon Burrows, Walton H.S., Marietta: I don't know a lot of other 3 star recruits who also had offers from Alabama, Florida, Clemson and Oklahoma. Burrows blew out his knee at the start of his senior season, which really hurt him in the national recruiting rankings. Otherwise he would likely be a 4 star player and one of the top 10 strongside defensive end/linebacker recruits in the country. He may be the biggest steal in this class.
- Ken Malcome, S.W. DeKalb: Malcome is being brought in to be the big tailback Richard Samuel never quite became. Samuel, in case you missed it, will be moving to linebacker this season. Malcome is another one of those guys whose offer list is a lot more impressive than his ranking. I think it's because he's not a flashy, slashing tailback who just wows people on film. But he's solidly built, has good balance and a low center of gravity. Malcome reminds me of a little faster Fred Munzenmeier, and could play that same hybrid tailback/fullback role.
- Mike Thornton, Stephenson: A quick, powerfully built 280 pound defensive tackle who could play inside or outside. I actually like Thornton better than Warner Robins' Jeff Whitaker, because Whitaker had some injury and weight issues his junior year that could easily resurface. Depending on injuries and position assignments in the new 3-4 defense, Thornton could see the field as a freshman.
- Kenarious Gates, Greenville, Georgia: This kid is a physically impressive offensive tackle prospect. Seriously, I don't know if there are a lot of pictures of him out there, but the kid's just plain big, as you can see in the pictures of him on Scout's profile. Big legs. Big waist. Big shoulders. All in all, the perfect build for an offensive tackle. I thought we might offer him earlier in the process, but I'm glad we got him in the end. Gates will need some time to work on his technique before he's ready to play. But I have absolute confidence in Stacy Searels' ability to mold him into something special. You can see some video of Gates in action here. (h/t, Scout.com). Plus, he is a high character kid who really wants to play at Georgia, and that's worth something.
- Alexander Ogletree, Newnan: Sure, everyone has heard of his brother, Alec (who we'll spotlight in a TMI feature next week). But "Zander" Ogletree was just as important to Newnan's playoff run this season as his brother. Ogletree appears ticketed to play either fullback or linebacker at Georgia, and will draw comparisons to Rennie Curran, another diminuitive tackling machine. Ogletree's not Rennie-strong, but then only one in 4,000,000 people are.
Finally, believe me when I say that next year's class, barring utter catastrophe, will be much better. Partially because there is a great deal of talent in the state of Georgia for 2011, and our coaches have done a great job of jumping on the right guys early. To some extent, especially on defense, it appears that the coaches moved on to 2011 early this year, knowing that our new defensive staff didn't have time to build the necessary relationships with uncommitted 2010 recruits.
So take heart. This class is not, on the whole, what we want. But if we find the next Drew Butler, Justin Houston and Rennie Curran in it, I won't be complaining. If you came into Signing Day with a generally pessimistic bent, this class probably doesn't really impress you. If you're an eternal optimist, you'll believe that all of these guys will live up to their potential and some will exceed it. What you see has nothing to do with what's in front of your eyes, and everything to do with what's behind them.
Also, be sure to check out RedCrake's Signing Day Post Mortem, which makes many of the points above, plus some other excellent ones. Until later . . .
Go 'Dawgs!!!
39 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
In my humble opinion,
you guys lose the recruiting battles in Spring, not down the stretch. You slow played too many this time around. I see no reason for UGA to have less than 15-20 commitments from in-state players by May/June every year considering what you have in-state.
That is a fair point . . .
And one I’ve heard Coach Richt answer. The problem is that we burn bridges if we ultimately have to pull instate offers.
That being said it is frustrating in some instances. The good news for us is that the coaches have already extended 20+ offers instate and 40ish overall for 2011.
by MaconDawg on Feb 3, 2010 10:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"Another funny thing about this class is that while the overall ranking is poor..."
Woah, woah, woah. Poor? I’m not so sure “poor” is the right adjective. It’s not top ten, but it’s top 16 according to two of the three services.
Part of that is due to size. With only 19 players signed, it’s tough to get that far up there. With a, say, 23 member class and the same proportional mix of star ratings, Georgia vaults several spots higher.
On top of that, look at average star rating. UGA’s 3.42 on Rivals is commensurate with Tennessee’s 3.44 and Auburn’s 3.50. Georgia’s 3.47 on Scout (where the Bulldogs are ranked 21st) is better than everyone ranked 11-20 except Ohio State and is better than LSU’s 3.34; Tennessee’s and Ole Miss’ twin 3.24s; and Alabama’s and Auburn’s matching 3.38s.
No, Mark Richt didn’t get everyone he wanted or make a huge signing day splash. What he also didn’t do was compromise overall quality by throwing scholarships around to anyone just to fill spots. I’m not sure what the right word is for this year’s Georgia class is, but “poor” ain’t it.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
Since everyone has us ranked fifth or sixth or seventh in the SEC . . .
. . . wouldn’t “mediocre” be appropriate?
I agree that averaging is necessary to come up with a meaningful basis for comparison—-simply adding stars in the aggregate is just dumb—-but it’s pretty clear that we lost ground today in comparison to some teams we have to play every year. Calling that “poor” isn’t a stretch.
Go 'Dawgs!
Every SEC team ahead of Georgia signed 25+ recruits, with Auburn’s 32 being the highest. It’s hard to rank up in aggregate points when you’re starting six men down.
To me, average stars is the better indicator than raw points because it’s an equalizer between big classes and small classes. In that light, Georgia didn’t really lose significant ground to anyone but Florida, but with the way things turned out this year, just about everyone nationally did. On a four-year running basis, Georgia is a clear No. 4 in the conference. One of those teams ahead is LSU, and Les Miles appears to be less than stellar at talent development.
Besides, Georgia made up serious ground on the coaching side by replacing Martinez with Grantham. Coaching players up once on campus is the most important part of recruiting anyway.
Team Speed Kills
SBNation's SEC Blog
"Georgia didn’t really lose significant ground to anyone but Florida."
Isn’t that enough? Georgia and Florida play in the same division. Beating Florida is therefore essentially a prerequisite to winning the division, which is a prerequisite to winning the conference, which is a prerequisite to winning the national title. Second place is still the first loser.
“On a four-year running basis, Georgia is a clear No. 4 in the conference.”
That is as damning an indictment as may be mustered. Only three teams in the conference match up well with Georgia in terms of history, facilities, finances, recruiting base, etc.: Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee. When your peer group consists of four teams (counting yourself) and you’re in fourth place, that means you came in last.
“Coaching players up once on campus is the most important part of recruiting anyway.”
Fine. I’ll trade you every player who signed a letter of intent to Georgia today for every player who signed a letter of intent to Florida today. Interested? Didn’t think so.
I know you’re genuinely trying to be magnanimous in victory, Year2, and I appreciate it, but you know and I know that the Bulldogs certainly aren’t any closer to a breakthrough than they were 18 hours ago, and they’re probably farther away. That’s just a hard cold fact of life, and, frankly, having seen my team beat your team consistently over the first half of my life, I’m sick and tired of having seen your team beat my team consistently over the second half of my life. Until that gets turned around, the glass remains half-empty.
Go 'Dawgs!
Wow
When you look at the data, it’s even worse.
Scout has Florida ranked first, Georgia ranked 21st, and Mississippi State ranked 38th.
The gap between Florida’s signing class and Georgia’s is larger than the gap between Georgia’s signing class and Mississippi State’s.
Let that sink in for a minute.
Go 'Dawgs!
I can't believe I'm going to say this...
But 4th in the conference isn’t bad considering the other 3 have won National Championships in the last 5 years.
To be honest, I concede that it is bad but until Richt wins a MNC its a part of our pitch that can’t compare… Other than winning the games, that isn’t a recruiting deficiency on Georgia’s part.
"We have a lot of passionate fans at Georgia and we look forward to giving them something to be positive about."
-Todd Grantham.
by RedCrake on Feb 3, 2010 11:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yes, but . . .
. . . prior to 2008, LSU hadn’t won a national championship since the late 1950s. Prior to 2009, Alabama hadn’t won a national championship since the early 1990s. Prior to 2006, Florida hadn’t won a national championship in a decade.
Despite those deficiencies, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and (for crying out loud) Ron Zook still found ways to pitch their programs.
Go 'Dawgs!
Crud, now I"m getting depressed all over again
At this rate, next fall will see the debut of the “Mark Richt Loss Watch.”
I tried to be positive, NCT, I really did. Worked for about an hour there.
Go 'Dawgs!
if you look for dirt hard enough, your going to find it
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
in re: LSU
What was that thing they won in 2003, then?
They passed a typing test
Clearly, I did not. I meant 2003, not 2008. Thanks for the catch. The point still stands: Nick Saban sold his recruits on something at LSU and a recent national championship wasn’t it.
Go 'Dawgs!
I know this is a family-friendly blog...
… but… I mean… just dammit.
You people are going to drive me to drink. And then you’re going to drive me home. Because it’s your fault I’m so depressed now.
I was sorely hoping that 2010 would be the re-breakout season for Georgia and Mark Richt. But (and this is letting more of my “season preview” hand show than I would like) everyone seems to be implying that even if Georgia can whip its QB act together and somehow get its athletes to master a completely new defensive scheme in just 5 months, we are basically now facing SC-South in the Gators, so it doesn’t matter how good we are. We’re all really just trying to play the role of Cal or Oregon to Florida’s dominant SC juggernaut.
Ok… so, if that’s the case, let’s try to extrapolate this thing… 2 national championships are in the bag… how many more years until the coach bolts in the face of a looming disgraceful and humiliating NCAA probation?
I hate Florida.
The other thing about recruiting is
that the immediate goal for recruiting is to fill the holes you currently have and the secondary goal is to prepare for the future. My question is – have we done that?
I know we don’t have an immediate need for a top-rated quarterback – but I suspect we do have an immediate need for good solid linemen (both offensively & defensively.)
Fact is we signed a whole lot fewer guys than other schools did, but we have historically had all (or very nearly all) of our recruits actually qualify and show up, where they haven’t. On top of that, the Thug U’s around us have to dismiss more players than we do (more or less) for disciplinary reasons.
So my gut feel (and I have absolutely zero data to back this up) is that we signed the players we needed, they will actually qualify, enroll & suit up in some fashion and we probably won’t be kicking them off the team in a year or two.
Personally, I prefer this approach, but then that’s just my opinion.
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
thank you for drinking my kool aid Podunk
I SO SO hope we have a review this August of who actually made it versus the clout about rankings today.
We did fine.
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
Retrospective reviews
There always are folks out there compiling “looks back” at recruiting classes, discussing who was hampered by injury, discipline problems, academic issues. But by that time, we care much, much less about how the attrition-adjusted class of two thousand-whatever looks from a Scouts or Rivals star perspective than we do about how that class performed in the W/L category. “Who was a surprise?” and “Who was a ‘bust’?” may be fun discussions rhetorically. But, to Kyle’s point, in January 2014, nobody’s going to be all that interested in comparing how many stars UF’s remaining recruiting class has as compared to UGA’s. They’ll remember (a) that UF had the best recruiting class in the country in 2010 (when they happen to think about it at all) and (b) what happened in Jacksonville in 2010-2013.
by NCT on Feb 4, 2010 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
I'll try . . .
to do that, tankertoad. Obviously, 5-star recruits playing in junior colleges or prep schools don’t help. The ones playing on the perp squads are of even less value, I think.
thanks MD -
I get what NCT is saying, I do, I do, I swear! But it would be nice to hear about how the committments really panned out to then compare a little more acurately. Nothing deep or cosmic, just something.
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
I suspect the only place you'll find
a statistical analysis of how a recruiting class really panned out is right here.
We could probably take the current data used to come up with the school by school rankings, and then when we get to say first game, see who’s actually on the team, and recalculate leaving out those who for whatever reason are not on the team on game day #1, and then do it again at the end of the season.
or something like that.
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
Kyle is doing litterary comparisons, Vine is restructuring the NCAA, and you are doing statistical analysis
I am simply not smart enough to be here.
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
Hell, I can't even spell literary!
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
You fly the plane
and we need that skill =)
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
I believe this comment thread just produced the cast list for "The Dawg Sports A-Team"
I love it when a plan comes together!
Go 'Dawgs!
that means I can fly anything on a whim - cool
oh, and you have to break me out of the crazy farm every week so i can help out
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
who says you get to be the crazy one????
I was fairly certain I had that market cornered.
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
I figured tankertoad was a natural for Howling Mad Murdoch
In your case, podunkdawg, I took my cue from the new “Battlestar Galactica” series, which I have never seen, but which I understand features a female Starbuck. Since the precedent has been set for gender-reidentifying Dirk Benedict television roles, what would prevent you from being the Faceman . . . er, the Facewoman?
Assuming vineyarddawg is willing to wear a mohawk, I think we have ourselves a movie.
Go 'Dawgs!
Out of pity for my fellow cast members
I will steadfastly refuse to wear a mohawk and embrace my role as facewoman instead. There’s no reason for torturing y’all.
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
In my eyes
recruiting football players is tantamount to hiring staff. When I need to hire a new position, I look for someone that can fill my immediate needs and then see how they can fill longer-term needs. Isn’t that how everyone hires people?
"Never refuse to do a kindness unless the act would work great injury to yourself, and never refuse to take a drink- under any circumstances." Mark Twain
2011
good job MaconDawg. We took our lumps. Now wait till we hire Travis Jones and we will have an awesome recruiting year next year. we will be back.
by Charlotte NC Dawg on Feb 4, 2010 7:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I hope
I hope that first thing Thursday morning, Richt assembled the coaches and said, “we are going to OWN this state next year! Nobody comes in (to get our players) and no one gets out (to go to other schools)! We are going to sign every single player we need and want that is in this state.”
You know what I like even better than the idea of moving Richard Samuel to linebacker?
Knowing that we can move Richard Samuel to linebacker.
I hope Aaron Murray has the best arm of any quarterback we’ve ever had . . . and I hope we don’t have any reason in the world to find that out for the first four or five weeks of the season.
Is it football season yet?
Go 'Dawgs!
Judging by my recent comment thread contributions . . .
. . . I think Manic Kyle and Depressive Kyle are warring for control of me like Lazarus in the “Star Trek” episode “The Alternative Factor.”
Ladies and gentlemen, meet “Gollum Kyle.” “We is going to win national championship next year!” “No! We is going to go 5-7 next year!” “We has Todd Grantham!” “We lost Rennie Curran and has to adapt to a new system!” “We has returning running backs!” “We has new quarterback!” “But the crystal football! It is our precious. . . .”
Go 'Dawgs!

by 
















