Since this is inevitably going to come up a lot between now and 10/29/2011, I figured I might as well weigh in early. Georgia fans point out that the Dawgs have smoked Muschamp the last three times they played him. Florida fans counter by saying that Muschamp’s defenses have been hamstrung by bad offenses and that the final point totals are deceptive. In my opinion, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

A Muschamp coached defense has faced Georgia five times. The first two meetings in 2003 went well for Coach Boom, surrendering an average of 330 yards per game, a number which was greatly helped out by the 93-yard pass play to Tyson Browning in Baton Rouge. (Yes, I know you can’t take out the big plays, as you’ll see in a moment.)

As you know, the next three went poorly. Muschamp’s stop units in 2004 (LSU) and 2006/2007 (Auburn) gave up an average of 431 yards per game on 6.4 yards per play. Georgia scored 20 times during that stretch, with one touchdown being a Tra Battle pick-six. Of the remaining 19 scores, seven came on drives that began at the Georgia 40-yard line or better following an opponent’s turnover. In its three wins over Muschamp, Georgia is +6 in turnover margin, aided by the immortal Brandon Cox who in the 2006 contest completed as many passes to Bulldogs (four) as he did to Tigers.

Georgia’s point totals against Muschamp have been aided by some circumstances beyond his control. But the Dawgs have also moved the ball extremely well, mounting 10 drives of 60+ yards, and the yards-per-play totals from 2006 (7.0) and 2007 (6.7) pretty much speak for themselves. A key ingredient to Georgia’s success has been the big play. Eleven of the Dawgs’ 19 scoring drives featured at least one 30+ yard pass and/or 20+ yard run.

In sum, Georgia has had great success against Muschamp’s three most recent defenses, but the point totals got into Willie Martinez territory due to some poor play by Tiger offenses.

In his introductory presser, Muschamp talked about making big plays on offense, limiting big plays on defense, and winning special teams. He would be wise to do all three against Georgia. Since 2004, the Dawgs have scored on Muschamp just twice without the benefit of a big gain or a short field. The difference is this time Muschamp will have control over all phases of the game, so excuses won’t come quite so easily.