Dr. Saturday Looks at Todd Grantham's Defense
As always, Matt Hinton reviews the data without passion or prejudice, so he certainly cannot be accused of grinding any axes, although I think his ultimate conclusion is a tad harsh, considering the significance of the shift in scheme. (I suspect a similar look at the Crimson Tide's defense in the first year under Nick Saban would be very nearly as unflattering, although I confess I have not done the math on that.)
The good Doctor's handy chart provided a valuable snapshot that showed little overall progress, but a couple of encouraging nuggets could be gleaned from the picture he painted. The Bulldogs' improvement in points per game (from 25.9 to 23.1) and in yards per game (from 339.4 to 335.8) between 2009 and 2010 was minuscule, yet the SEC numbers are more promising.
Last year, the Red and Black gave up 31.5 points per game and 379.4 yards per game in SEC outings. This year, Georgia allowed 25.0 points per game and 355.8 yards per game against conference competition. That's a difference of almost a touchdown and almost 25 yards in games against league foes, which, when set alongside twice as many total takeaways and a fivefold increase in fumble recoveries, suggests at least some movement in a positive direction, even if there has been one step back for every two steps forward.
By the way, the first commenter following Dr. Saturday's above posting wrote: "Dawgs don't deserve a bowl game." His avatar is a Georgia Tech logo.
Go 'Dawgs!
over 1 year ago
T Kyle King
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Somebody needs to tell that first commenter
About Paul Johnson’s philosophy regarding the in state rivalry. Its clear he isn’t aware that the Georgia game doesn’t matter.
"I want anything wearing red and black to tear the head off anything that isn't." - Lewis Grizzard
by RedCrake on Dec 1, 2010 10:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
He calls it “at best… a sideways step” from last year but I agree with you on his underestimating the importance of the change to the 3-4. If the defense is just as good in year 1, I think it’s safe to say it was a good call to change DCs.
However, I think it’s hard to call it a sideways step at all when he notes that every year under WM was worse than the year before. To me, that means that the first goal is to stop the bleeding, which the numbers indicate we’ve accomplished (lowering opponent’s scores by almost a field goal overall and almost a TD in conference).
It’s also hard to label it as a sideways step when we actually saw adjustments made during the games for a change.
"It'll only be reviewed because the guys up in the booth want to watch it a few times too." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf16_mw0nxs
Excellent points all the way around, Adam.
Halting the free fall was job one. Mission accomplished.
Particularly with the fifteen extra practices that bowl eligibility affords, we should see real progress in year two, even if we don’t give credit for significant improvements in yards and points allowed in conference play already.
If we can find a junior college nose tackle and sign some defensive backs, we should be in good shape.
Go 'Dawgs!
I don't know what to think...
I was feeling positive after Auburn, but the Florida loss looks worse now than it did a few weeks ago. There’s just no excuse for our defensive performance in that game. We lost six games in a year that UT and UF were both down. Other than hope there’s not a lot (Murray of course) to suggest that we’re suddenly going to pass our rivals.
I honestly don't place the Cocktail Party on the D.
That was Aaron Murray’s loss, plain and simple. He played like a freshman in that game (which is understandable given that he’s, well, a freshman). It’s just unfortunate that his one freshman game came in the one we may have wanted the most.
I may be blaming Murray, but I’m not hating him for it. Love the kid. I just think the loss was primarily his fault. He learned. We’ll hopefully get them the next three years with him under center. I just ultimately think that he was the main cause of that loss, not the D.
by The984 on Dec 2, 2010 2:35 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How do you blame the QB when you score over 30 points against a team who could only muster seven points against MSU and FSU?
You blame the quarterback because he threw, what, four interceptions, . . .
. . . including the one in overtime that allowed the Gators to win it with a field goal.
I love Aaron Murray, too, but he was too amped up before the home state crowd. He played his worst game of the season. Take away one Aaron Murray interception, and Georgia probably wins. Take away two, and Georgia definitely wins.
This is the corollary to tankertoad’s oft-repeated (and well-taken) point that the Bulldog offense has been maddeningly inconsistent and Mike Bobo needlessly has taken his foot off the gas, even in games in which the Red and Black topped 30 points. It’s not enough just to say, “We scored 31 points! How can you blame the offense?”
Go 'Dawgs!
To put it in more concrete terms:
Florida scored 14 first half points off Aaron Murray turnovers on our side of the field. They had to travel a total of 70 yards to get those points. This is to say nothing of the stop they got on the first defensive series of the game, which followed Aaron’s hands-down worst interception of the season.
I think that at this point Aaron Murray is as complete a freshman quarterback as I’ve seen since Sam Bradford. I wouldn’t trade him for anyone coming back in the SEC next season. But that was definitely the one “freshman game” we all figured he would play eventually.
Disagree a bit
I only just watched the reply of the Cocktail party yesterday. Yes, Murray had a rough start…but he also had bad luck, particularly on the pick that Aron White should’ve caught. Florida does the wheel-route on the next play, then scores a play after that.
No, the Florida game was lost because we don’t know how to fall on a fumble. When we tied ’em at 24, we allow a long kickoff retorn in the 4th quarter. Everytime we had a chance to steal momentum, or actually gained momentum, the defense and special teams failed us. This game was a microcosm of the entire season.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
by DavetheDawg on Dec 2, 2010 8:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
we opened the game with an INT on about the 20. So, in a different wording - I agree, turnovers hurt us (falling on them or making them).
"One thing I will never do as long as I’m at Georgia is lose to Florida." - Herschel Walker
Regarding fumbles...I was thinking to myself last Saturday
while watchin FSU beat Florida, “why can’t we get breaks like that?” Watching the WLOCP replay reminded me of how we DID get early breaks and couldn’t use them.
Twice. Deep in UF territory. Damn.
"If we score, we may win. If they never score, we'll never lose."
-Erk Russell
We do get breaks like that
Karma just sees fit to make us suffer all year and then unleash all of the goodness against Georgia Tech.
"I want anything wearing red and black to tear the head off anything that isn't." - Lewis Grizzard
by RedCrake on Dec 2, 2010 11:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm with Kyle...
I think Aaron lost the game for us. However I think he is great. He is already showing up our last “great” qb in Stafford. More TD’s and more yards. But when we started out losing like we did this season, That game was the only one I cared about winning.
After all these comparisons of ‘09 D and ’10D I’m not feeling so hot about our defense for ‘11 right now. I understand it’s TG’s first year, and I love his fire on the sidelines. But I hope next year is a huge improvement from this year.
Relative to the rest of the SEC...
This year was an improvement. During one of the games on Saturday, I heard an announcer mention that the SEC was the highest scoring conference in the nation this year, so I think you have to view the averages in light of that fact. The SEC has much better offenses than it did five years ago.
I pulled the Yards per Game and Points per Game SEC rankings from Yahoo/Rivals for 2005-2010 and they look like this:
2005: PPG-2nd, YPG-5th
2006: PPG-4th, YPG-2nd
2007: PPG-3rd, YPG-3rd
2008: PPG-10th, YPG-7th
2009: PPG-10th, YPG-7th
2010: PPG-7th, YPG-4th
I think these statistics highlight what most of us already know: 2008 and 2009 were disastrous compared to the defenses we had come to expect at Georgia. It also reinforces the idea that either our talent identification or our talent development severely diminished in the final years under Martinez. I think the relative improvements made in Year 1 of the Grantham 3-4 project are important and notable.
To answer the previous question about Saban in 2007, Alabama was ranked 4th in PPG and 6th in YPG in his first season. The 2006 squad was 6th in PPG and 4th in YPG. His rebuilding project was much less intensive, and was successfully augmented by JUCO players.
by Sugar Hill Gangsta on Dec 2, 2010 10:37 AM EST reply actions
Yes we went backwards defensivly in 08 & 09 but missing from the equation
the number of 3 & outs (Bobo)
the poor field position our offense gave us (Bobo)
the turnovers
the lack time eating drives (Bobo)
the pitiful ST play
by JRL on Dec 2, 2010 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
With AJ Green most likely gone next year, I expect to see a more ball control-type offense from Bobo.
I think he (and this is neither a defense or an attack) shot downfield more with AJ Green in the offense. Unless we get/develop another “field spreader” like AJ, I think we’ll see more time consuming drives.
But, JRL, you are spot on: I think the quick strikes hurt our defense a few times this year. A lot of games the defense looked gassed.
If you're gonna do it, go ugly early.
Partially
I think the offensive shortfalls are partially to blame. The turnovers are probably to blame for being 10th in PPG, while only 7th in YPG. I recall numerous times when our defense started off defending the short field. Regardless, it’s a consistent trend that I’m glad has been turned around.
My point wasn’t an indictment on any coach in particular (maybe Martinez), as much as it was pointing out that Grantham is dealing with a different generation of offensive coaches, and we should judge him among his peers.
by Sugar Hill Gangsta on Dec 2, 2010 4:45 PM EST reply actions
Points in the second half
I haven’t run the numbers, but it seemed to me that the biggest improvement was how we finished. Last year it seemed like we gave up significant amounts of points in the second half. This year we seemed to give up fewer points in the second half.
This matters a lot. It’s the difference between losing six games we could have won going into the fourth quarter this year and last year’s losing 2 blowouts (Florida, Tennessee) and one where we led 20-6 at halftime (Kentucky).
Unfortunately, we seemed to give up more points in the first half, too.
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