Week Eleven BlogPoll Ballot: Auburn Tigers Hold Clear Edge Over Oregon Ducks in Race for No. 1
by T Kyle King on Nov 17, 2010 12:15 AM EST
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PrintI’m a little late in getting this to you, but here is this week’s BlogPoll ballot, which (a) is resume-based and (b) began with a clean white sheet of paper. Without further ado, I present the top 25 teams in the land, at least as they appear to me:
Dawg Sports Ballot - Week 12
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auburn Tigers | -- |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks | -- |
| 3 | Boise St. Broncos |  1 |
| 4 | TCU Horned Frogs |  -1 |
| 5 | Michigan St. Spartans | 1 |
| 6 | LSU Tigers | -1 |
| 7 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 2 |
| 8 | Wisconsin Badgers | 2 |
| 9 | Stanford Cardinal | -2 |
| 10 | Oklahoma St. Cowboys | -2 |
| 11 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 3 |
| 12 | Ohio St. Buckeyes | -1 |
| 13 | Missouri Tigers | 3 |
| 14 | Arkansas Razorbacks | 1 |
| 15 | Oklahoma Sooners | 3 |
| 16 | South Carolina Gamecocks | -- |
| 17 | Texas A&M Aggies | -- |
| 18 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 3 |
| 19 | USC Trojans | -- |
| 20 | Mississippi St. Bulldogs | -3 |
| 21 | Arizona Wildcats | -8 |
| 22 | N.C. State Wolfpack | -- |
| 23 | Florida St. Seminoles | -- |
| 24 | Northern Illinois Huskies | -- |
| 25 | Virginia Tech Hokies | -5 |
| Dropouts: Iowa Hawkeyes, Utah Utes, Central Florida Knights, Temple Owls, San Diego St. Aztecs, Fresno St. Bulldogs | ||
SB Nation BlogPoll College Football Top 25 Rankings "
I watched portions of the Connecticut-Pittsburgh game on Thursday, the Boise State-Idaho game on Friday, and the Georgia Tech-Miami, Ole Miss-Tennessee, and Fresno State-Nevada games on Saturday. I watched all of the Georgia-Auburn game on Saturday, which explains why I wasn’t in a place where I had any interest in watching the important evening games.
I also considered ranking the Miami Hurricanes, Navy Midshipmen, and Syracuse Orange, in that order. I will be happy to explain any particular placements that appear peculiar to you, but here is the short course on the upper echelon:
- As a resume ranker, I continue to be amazed that anyone anywhere, much less a majority of pollsters, could possibly rank Oregon ahead of Auburn. The Tigers have beaten five Division I-A teams with winning records; the Ducks have beaten two. The Tigers’ best win was over No. 6 Louisiana State; the Ducks’ best win was over No. 9 Stanford. The Tigers’ second-best win was over No. 14 Arkansas; the Ducks’ second-best win was over No. 19 Southern California. The Tigers’ third- and fourth-best wins were over No. 16 South Carolina and No. 20 Mississippi State, respectively; the Ducks’ third- and fourth-best wins were over . . . whom, exactly? A .500 Cal club in a nailbiter? A home demolition of a UCLA outfit with a 4-5 ledger? Seven of Oregon’s ten wins have come against Division I-AA teams or Division I-A teams with losing records. The Ducks are destroying bad teams every week while winning one or two big games, which is exactly what we excoriate mid-major teams for doing. Auburn is the No. 1 team in the country, and it isn’t close.
- The Broncos inched ahead of the Horned Frogs by virtue of the increasing value associated with Boise State’s season-opening win over No. 25 VPI. Texas Christian did not impress against San Diego State, and their supposedly marquee wins over Air Force, Baylor, and Utah have lost considerable luster.
- Among 9-1 clubs, the Spartans edged the Bayou Bengals by virtue of Michigan State’s best win (over No. 8 Wisconsin), which eclipsed LSU’s top triumph (over No. 11 Alabama). The Cornhuskers’ best victory (over No. 10 Oklahoma State) actually is better than the Tigers’ premiere scalp, as well, but Nebraska was penalized for falling to six-loss Texas and Louisiana State was rewarded for a quality loss in a close game on the road against undefeated Auburn.
- The Badgers were buoyed by wins over No. 12 Ohio State and Iowa, but every other Division I-A victory carded by Wisconsin came against a team that is 4-6 or worse. The Cardinal likewise suffers from a lack of quality wins after those over No. 19 USC and No. 21 Arizona. There’s only so far victories over a pair of 7-3 teams will carry you when you’re claiming wins over two-win clubs like Wake Forest and Washington State, as well.
- I believe the Crimson Tide are better than the Cowboys, but the Pokes’ 9-1 ledger (featuring six wins over teams at or above .500) was superior to Alabama’s 8-2 record (including four wins over teams at or above .500). Likewise, the Buckeyes haven’t beaten anyone I deemed deserving of a spot in the top 25, while Mizzou has defeated two (No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 17 Texas A&M), but Ohio State is 9-1 with a loss to my No. 8 team, whereas the Tigers are 8-2 with a loss to a Texas Tech team that sits at 5-5.
- The Razorbacks are ahead of the Sooners because the Hogs’ top two triumphs (over No. 16 South Carolina and No. 17 Texas A&M) are superior to Oklahoma’s (against No. 23 Florida State and Air Force). The character of their respective losses influenced me, as well; each lost at least somewhat respectably to an 8-2 opponent (Arkansas to Alabama and Oklahoma to Missouri), but the Razorbacks’ other loss was to No. 1 Auburn and the Sooners’ second setback was to No. 17 Texas A&M.
After that, it’s a bit of a hodgepodge, but feel free to fire away with your questions and constructive criticisms in the comments below.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Just a reminder here that I think you continue to overvalue ‘wins against winning teams’ when comparing elite teams in the Pac 10 and SEC. Pac 10 teams average 1.1 more games against AQ conference schools or ND, 1.2 fewer home games, 0.3 more games against top-25 non-AQ schools than SEC teams … and most of those extra games against AQ schools are against each other due to the 9 game Pac 10 schedule, which means someone has to lose. Of course a smaller percentage Pac 10 teams have winning records; it’s almost unavoidable given the schedules they played.
UCLA stomped two pre-season top-25 teams in Houston and Texas… and they’re 4-5. Arizona State has lost 4 games by a total of 9 points… and they’re 4-6. Oregon State (who the Ducks haven’t played yet) played two top-5 teams out of conference… and those were their games against non-AQ schools (they beat a .500 Louisville team that my Orange didn’t figure out, sigh) — no shock, they’re 4-5.
You had me until "or Notre Dame."
While I see your point, I think it comes out in the wash at the elite level: by the time the bowls begin, the Pac-10 champion will have survived a nine-game conference schedule and the SEC champion will have survived a nine-game conference schedule (counting the SEC Championship Game).
Right now, though, the extra conference game isn’t disadvantaging any Pac-10 programs. At this point in the season, one Pac-10 team has played eight conference games (Washington State) and three SEC teams have played eight conference games (Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina, all of whom end their seasons against in-conference rivals from AQ conferences).
At this point in the campaign, Auburn has played seven conference games and Oregon has played seven conference games. Alabama has played seven conference games and Stanford has played seven conference games. No Pac-10 team has yet played all nine of its conference games. Seven Pac-10 teams (Arizona, Arizona State, California, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, and Washington State) have played either seven or eight conference games, and seven SEC teams (Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt) have played either seven or eight conference games.
Your point is well taken, and I will take it into account at the end of the regular season, but, right now, I can’t see it as having that big an impact. If Oregon State was 6-3, I might have them ranked due to their strength of schedule, and, if Houston and Texas had held up their end of the bargain, I might give UCLA more credit, but that win over the Longhorns looks less and less valuable with each passing week. In short, at the end of the day, your argument will come into play, but we aren’t there yet.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Nov 17, 2010 10:53 AM EST up reply actions
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