Don't Bet On It!: Week Seven College Football Forecasts Around the SEC
by T Kyle King on Oct 13, 2010 3:45 PM EDT
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PrintLast week, I opted not to predict the outcomes of any college football games because Bulldog Nation had other subjects on its collective mind, but we’re back to regular programming here at Dawg Sports, so I am obligated to report that, two Saturdays ago, I went 4-2 in my SEC forecasts to strand my season-long league ledger at 30-8. That ought to make my usual disclaimer superfluous, but, just to be on the safe side, I must warn you, as always: Don’t Bet On It!
The following games all will be played on Saturday, October 16, because this is the SEC, not some lower-tier league like the MAC, the Sun Belt, or the Big East:
McNeese St. Cowboys at LSU Tigers: I had to Google "McNeese State" to find out the team’s mascot. If I have to Google your school to find out what your mascot is, there ain’t no way you’re going into Baton Rouge and beating Louisiana State. Also, when X State plays Y State, and X is an actual state but Y is not, go with X State to get the W.
Mississippi Rebels at Alabama Crimson Tide: Yeah, I know: Julio Jones broke his hand, and the quirky history of Houston Nutt’s teams suggests that a win over ‘Bama became inevitable when Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State, but I’m going to go out on a limb here and say a mad defending national champion playing at home will find a way to beat the league’s ninth-best team. Call me crazy, but I’m taking the Tide to roll. (I’m saving any wild upset picks for after the jump.)
Mississippi St. Bulldogs at Florida Gators: Last weekend, Urban Meyer’s club amassed 243 total yards in a game that left Orson Swindle speechless and prompted a debate between Voltaire and Firehorse. Meanwhile, Dan Mullen’s team racked up 409 rushing yards. Will the real coaching genius please stand? While I know John Brantley is damaged goods and Chris Rainey will not be reinstated fully until after this weekend’s game, I have a tough time calling the upset in the Swamp. If they were playing in Starkville, I’d go with the Bulldogs, but, since they’re playing in Gainesville, I’m picking the Gators.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats: The Palmetto State Poultry are coming off of the biggest win in program history. The Blue and White took league-leading Auburn to the wire in Lexington. The Wildcats have a history of bumping off the big boys in the wake of big wins. The Gamecocks have a history of swoons in the second half of the season. I have a history of calling upsets in the Commonwealth. That smells like a recipe for Kentucky-fried Chickens to me.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Auburn Tigers: Six foot six they stood on the ground. No, I’m not quoting "A Thing Called Love"; I’m citing the vital statistics of Cameron Newton and Ryan Mallett. In what promises to be a shootout on the Plains, jd is legend foresees a 34-24 triumph by the Tigers. That sounds about right.
By now, you know that you should never underestimate my ability to botch the call anytime I am asked to predict the outcome of a college football game. However, just in case any of you are a little slow on the uptake, let me boil my message down to its essence and warn you once again . . . Don’t Bet On It!
Coming Soon: National Games of Interest.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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We'll see if your X State/Y State theorem holds up
when the GA State whatevers take on the Kennessaw State whatevers. I’ll suppose they’ll give the game some “Classic” bowl name that makes it sound like they’ve been rivals for centuries.
Should I be rooting for UK to beat USC on the off chance that UGA still has a longshot at the east, or should I root for USC to beat UK so that at least one team in the east continues to look halfway decent this year?
I will be rooting for Kentucky because I want the Wildcats to get their big win out of the way.
Otherwise, their big win could come against us one week later. I’d rather them come into their game with Georgia distracted by the euphoria of victory than angry over the agony of defeat.
Octuple-overtime wouldn’t be bad, either.
Go 'Dawgs!
If you accept that we're pretty much done...
I’m a Cock fan because I’d much rather see Spurrier in the Dome than Florida. Basically, as a general rule, whenever something good might happen to somebody, I’d rather it not happen to Florida.
Although I suppose IF we were to beat Florida, they’d be pretty much done and I’d probably wish SC had some more losses on the slate. But I think Kyle’s theory makes the most sense on that front, anyway, especially since we’ll be without a certain other gentleman named King for UK.
This is an excellent point, NMdawg.
I’m rooting for the Gamecocks, because at this point, the representative from the East in the SEC Championship Game is going to be either South Carolina or Florida.
(I hate Florida.)
by vineyarddawg on Oct 13, 2010 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Been looking for an excuse...
If you're gonna do it, go ugly early.
by Inteljumper on Oct 13, 2010 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm conflicted on the Wildcats/Gamecocks matchup
Similar to the discussion at the Blind Pig re: Tennessee/LSU… do I want Kentucky to get their big win out of the way or do I want a deflating loss at the hands of Spicoli and Lattimore… Decisions, decisions.
"I want anything wearing red and black to tear the head off anything that isn't." - Lewis Grizzard
by RedCrake on Oct 13, 2010 4:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Exactly.
Whatever happens, I want Kentucky focused on the previous week’s game against South Carolina, not on the current week’s game against Georgia.
I tend to think a Wildcat upset would do more to distract Kentucky than a demoralizing last-second loss, but I want it to be one or the other.
It does us no good to have South Carolina maintain a 10- to 14-point lead throughout and cruise to a win that is neither heartbreaking nor soul-crushing for the ’Cats.
Go 'Dawgs!
For an option C
I could also go for a 50+ point shutout. That would be suitably soul-crushing. Not likely… but a man can dream, right?
"I want anything wearing red and black to tear the head off anything that isn't." - Lewis Grizzard
by RedCrake on Oct 13, 2010 6:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's what I'm dreaming of.
But it’s not going to happen, especially the shutout part.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Oct 13, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the state State vs non-State State thing is overblown.
I mean, New Mexico State and Utah State lose to Boise State (and usually Fresno State, and often San Jose State) every year. Colorado State has a losing record all-time vs. San Diego State.
Now, if it’s FCS non-state State vs. BCS AQ conference state State, then it’s a different deal.
Good point.
Maybe the [State] State v. [Non-State] State principle only applies east of the Mississippi! :)
Go 'Dawgs!
To reconcile these facts,
I’ll point out the principle that makes it all make sense: Western teams have weird names, and none of the rules apply. Heck, the University of Southern California is the dynasty out Left; anyone think the University of Southern Mississippi has a multi-MNC run in the tank?
Kyle, I only differ with you on the SCAR game.
This year is different for them—Spurrier has that swagger back. And I hate that swagger!
If you're gonna do it, go ugly early.
Auburn
plays at 2:30, I think. I’m not optimistic about their chances because that isn’t late enough in they day for them. That have trouble waking their butts up. That is why they lost to Arkansas last year. It was a morning game and they got behind by like 30 points. Then once they finally woke up, they came back and nearly won. But too little too late. 2:30 may be JUST late enough in the day for them, but I’m hardly sure. If Georgia wants to beat Auburn yet again, just schedule it for 11:00 am (noon GA time). Anyway, Auburn has more sprinklers than any town I have ever seen. I suggest they make the players get up and turn the sprinklers on them on Saturday prior to the Arkansas game. And give them TONS of caffeine. That way, they may win this game. Otherwise, forget it. It will be the hardest game of the season.
The Arky run D is still pretty awful at times....
And well… Auburn does fancy itself as a running team
Fumbles. It was always Fumbles
UK/SC
I would be more inclined to believe South Carolina would get upset if Randall Cobb was available, but I think he’s still listed as questionable for this game.
Also, I don’t think Kentucky has beaten SC in like a decade, and doing it without their best weapon just seems far-fetched.
But it would be so like SC to lose this game, and I would be happy. It’s a Palmetto State thing really for big wins to be followed with mind-blowing losses.
by OrangeBritches on Oct 14, 2010 10:15 AM EDT reply actions
In the past that has been true, because it was truly an upset for our average team to upset an elite team.
However, this year is different. There are no obvious holes at any positions. In the past USC has had a very poor offense. Their quarterbacks were turnover machines, and the running backs may as well have not even shown up. Once in a blue moon the quarterback would have a hot hand and complete a couple deep balls to a receiver, and the backs would do just enough to keep the game within reach. This year, the offense is good enough at passing and running to get yards consistently against any team.
After the Auburn loss, I was disheartened and thought it would just be more of the same, but the only reason Auburn won was ‘cause of Newton’s scrambling. The defensive coordinator didn’t game plan against it well enough. I’m hoping if we face another mobile quarterback he’ll do a better job game planning, ‘cause that has been the only weakness in the team thus far. Maybe he’ll look up in the dictionary what a spy man is.
stuff 'bout stuff.
by silver82blade on Oct 15, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
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