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A Very, Very Rough Draft of My Final 2009 BlogPoll Ballot

I was working on this while I was watching the national championship game, so this is very preliminary, but I wanted to get it out there for your inspection, your comments, and your questions.

Bear in mind, as always, that this is a resume-based ballot and that I started from a clean white piece of paper, so previous rankings have no bearing and the results of all games against Division I-A competition are weighted equally; what the Alabama Crimson Tide did against the Virginia Tech Hokies on Labor Day weekend had as much to do with the Tide's final ranking as what they did to the Texas Longhorns tonight.

Here, in my view, are the top 25 teams in the land:

Star-divide

1. Alabama

2. Boise State

3. Florida

4. TCU

5. Cincinnati

6. Texas

7. Ohio State

8. Iowa

9. BYU

10. Georgia Tech

11. Virginia Tech

12. Oregon

13. Miami (Florida)

14. USC

15. Pitt

16. West Virginia

17. Penn State

18. Utah

19. Wisconsin

20. Nebraska

21. Ole Miss

22. Houston

23. Oklahoma State

24. LSU

25. Texas Tech

Others Receiving Consideration: Central Michigan, Navy, Rutgers

Naturally, I haven't even cast a ballot yet---I don't even know if the BlogPoll voting mechanism is open yet---but I wanted to get that out there, inasmuch as this is the one that will stand against history.

Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Go 'Dawgs!

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Jan 2010 from Cowboy Altitude - 1 comment

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I dont see Cincy above Texas, they didnt show anything in their last outting really

Penn State seems a little too low, and Miami seems a little too high….

just a quick snap shot

"Sometimes, you just can't get rid of a bomb." - batman

by tankertoad on Jan 8, 2010 12:48 AM EST reply actions  

Fair enough

This is why I post the ballot as early as I can, to “reality test” it and see what appears out of order. Here was my rationale for each of those rankings, with respect to which I welcome feedback:

1. Cincinnati and Texas both went undefeated through the regular season and lost in the postseason by a convincing margin. The Bearcats beat seven teams with winning records and four teams with losing records. The Longhorns beat seven teams with winning records and five teams with losing records. Cincy beat No. 15 Pitt on the road, No. 16 West Virginia, and decent Rutgers and Oregon State teams (both on the road and both by comfortable margins). Texas beat No. 20 Nebraska at a neutral site, No. 23 Oklahoma State on the road, and No. 25 Texas Tech. It was a close call, but, on the whole, I thought Cincinnati had the slightly better overall body of work, as the Bearcats beat seven teams that won eight or more games.

2. Penn State closed with a narrow win at a neutral site in a sloppy game, but what else did the Nittany Lions do this year? Their eleven wins came against Division I-AA Eastern Illinois and seven teams that finished with losing records. Only three of PSU’s victories came against teams that finished above .500: LSU (whose best win was a penalty-aided last-second comeback against a mediocre Georgia team), Northwestern, and Temple. The Lions faced the two toughest teams on their schedule (Iowa and Ohio State) at home and the Hawkeyes and the Buckeyes both beat Penn State convincingly.

3. The ‘Canes beat five teams with winning records (as did USC, Pitt, and West Virginia, the three teams ranked immediately behind Miami) and their four losses were respectable. Three of Miami’s four losses were either on the road or at a neutral site, two of them were by margins of a touchdown or less, and all four of them came against teams that finished with eight or more wins. The Hurricanes also carded a convincing win over ACC champion Georgia Tech, giving them a more impressive scalp than many teams. Although I could have elevated the Trojans over Miami, USC was dragged down by its loss to a Washington club that finished 5-7.

That’s why I ranked those teams where I did, but, as always, I invite questions, constructive criticisms, and persuasive cases for alternative poll positions. Thanks for raising those points, tankertoad.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions  

Texas should be ahead of both Cincy and TCU...

Unlike Cincy, the outcome of the title game was actually in question in the 4th quarter, because a true frosh sliced up Saban’s NFL defense for a couple of huge scoring drives while their all-world rushing tandem was content to be stuck in reverse. The final score was not reflective of the closeness of that game in the final quarter. Cincy got their doors absolutely blown off, and TCU got completely (and suprisingly) shutdown by a suspect defense. Both the upstarts were at full strength. For me, it’s hard to justify putting a team that was one drive away from winning the national title (but ultimately failing to get it done) at #6…..

Just my 2 cents…..

by allhailcale on Jan 8, 2010 2:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I respect that point of view, cale . . .

. . . but I disagree with it, for two reasons.

First of all, I don’t think Texas played nearly as good a game as it looked like at some points. That the Longhorns made it close for a while is to their credit, but the final score was representative. Much like this year’s Georgia-South Carolina game, the closeness of the score late in the game was a bit flukey.

Secondly—-and I cannot stress this strongly enough—-as a resume ranker, I am no more concerned about a team’s most recent game than I am about a team’s first game. The problem with most polls is that they start with assumptions and shift on a week-by-week basis without reconsidering previous outcomes. Georgia was ranked in the top 15 to open the season, so Oklahoma State got credit for beating a top 15 team by two touchdowns. It turned out that Georgia wasn’t that good. Accordingly, my assessment of Oklahoma State’s resume changed as we learned more about how good Georgia really was.

I will grant that Texas played a better bowl game than Cincinnati did, but the ‘Horns were lucky to escape with neutral site wins over a decent Nebraska team and an Oklahoma team that looked a lot like Georgia: big name, no game. Also, the Bearcats get credit for going cross-country and beating a good Oregon State team. Texas’s non-conference schedule consisted of Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, and Central Florida. I have no problem with Texas getting Auburned for a non-conference slate like that in a year in which the Big 12 was down.

By the way, had Texas won last night, I’m not at all certain I wouldn’t have ranked Boise State No. 1.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Tech...

A little biased, but Tech at 10 is a little crazy considering the overall weakness of their schedule and the level with which 2 of their last 3 opponents dominated them statistically.

BTW, where did you have LSU before their loss to PSU?

by rxmaster on Jan 8, 2010 1:52 AM EST reply actions  

I'd have to check to see where I had LSU ranked

Since my evaluation of a team’s record changes on a weekly basis (as their record changes, and as the records of the teams they’ve played change), I don’t look back to the previous week’s rankings when compiling this week’s rankings.

Believe me, it turns my stomach to rank Georgia Tech in the top ten, but the Yellow Jackets beat Clemson twice and they beat Virginia Tech. Their three losses all were respectable: only one of them was at home and all of them were against teams that won eight or more games. Besides, since I’m being asked to give the Longhorns credit for hanging tough with Alabama in the fourth quarter before falling by a double-digit margin, shouldn’t I give the same credit to our in-state rival? When Iowa lined up for what turned out to be a fake field goal with the score 17-14, I was sure the final score was going to be 21-20.

I have the Hokies ranked right behind the Engineers. It wouldn’t seem right to drop the Ramblin’ Wreck below the Gobblers, since GIT beat VPI head-to-head, won the conference title, and finished with a better record. If I were to entertain arguments about dropping the Golden Tornado, though, a good place to focus would be on the fact that five of their ten wins over Division I-A opposition were by a touchdown or less, whereas only one of their three losses came in a one-score game.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I know it's hard but...

If you dock Texas points for narrow wins over Nebraska and OU- teams that you say were a lot like Georgia, then how “respectable” is Tech’s loss to UGA?

But of course you could leave ’em at ten and then UGA would have a win over a Top 10 program this year.

by fotodog on Jan 8, 2010 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

These things are relative

I’m comparing Texas to elite (top five) teams; I’m comparing Georgia Tech to a ton of two- and three-loss teams.

Not to get all Jesse Jackson on you or anything, but, if not them, who? I can’t very well move the Hokies past the Yellow Jackets. Is Oregon more deserving of that spot? I’m open to arguments, but, right now, I’m not seeing it.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

C'mon there, T. Kyle, if Cincy is #5,

the despised Gators have to be number 2. Did you not see the Sugar Bowl?

by Jujdog on Jan 8, 2010 8:44 AM EST reply actions  

I saw the Sugar Bowl, and I struggled with that ranking for that reason

I was impressed by the fact that Florida beat nine teams with winning records while the Broncos beat just six. However, that number is a little misleading, since the Gators beat four teams that finished 7-6 (Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida State).

Ultimately, I placed Boise State ahead of Florida for two reasons. First of all, going undefeated counts for something, particularly since the Sunshine State Saurians lost to ‘Bama badly in a neutral site game. Secondly, the Broncos’ two best wins (over Texas Christian and Oregon) were better than the Gators’ two best wins (over Cincinnati and Louisiana State).

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Just checking on this...

… but you did see that Wiscy beat Miami (Florida) pretty hadily, and WVU lost to FSU, right? I mean, I’ll usually prop up Big East teams if I can, but the ‘eers can’t beat the ‘Noles, Bowden’s last game sentimentailism or no, they aren’t a top 25 team.

by drothgery on Jan 8, 2010 9:50 AM EST reply actions  

Once again, I'm judging a team based on a whole season, not on one game

Wisconsin beat Miami, but the next-best win in the Badgers’ ledger was an overtime victory over Fresno State in Madison, while Wiscy’s losses to Ohio State and Iowa were not close. The Hurricanes lost four games, one of them to Wisconsin, but all four of Miami’s losses were to teams that finished with eight or more wins. Only one of those losses was at home and two of them were by a touchdown or less. The ’Canes also get a big boost from beating Georgia Tech handily.

Likewise, the Mountaineers beat ten-win Pitt and nine-win Rutgers, as well as taking care of a decent East Carolina team. (The Pirates took the Razorbacks to the wire in a neutral site game heavily dominated by Arkansas fans. The Hogs previously took the Gators to the wire in the Swamp. I give West Virginia credit for defeating ECU.) None of WVU’s four losses came at home and three of them were to teams that finished with eight or more wins.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Jan 8, 2010 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

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