Why It Is More Important for the Florida Gators to Get Worse Than for the Georgia Bulldogs to Get Better
Last Wednesday, Braves & Birds made some interesting observations about the Mark Richt era, one of which was this:
Richt benefited from a weak SEC. . . .
Richt's heyday corresponds with the conference's weakest period. Steve Spurrier had been replaced by Ron Zook, Phil Fulmer and Lou Holtz were in decline, Arkansas was in between Houston Nutt's two strong periods (the Clint Stoerner teams at the start of his tenure and the McFadden/Jones teams at the end), and Alabama was adrift under Mike Shula. The only SEC power programs that were not suffering were Auburn and LSU and Richt batted .500 against them during the glory years, including the two worst losses of the period: the 2003 SEC Championship Game against LSU and the 2004 game at Auburn.
That, in conjunction with podunkdawg’s assessment of a Southeastern Conference in transition, got me thinking about something that is so obvious it often gets overlooked. Simply stated, sustained success in sports almost always is at least partially dependent upon the weakness of the opposition.
That is not to say great teams cannot coexist in the same league at the same time; they can, although rarely for very long. Show me a program that is dominant to the point of becoming dynastic, though, and I probably will be able to show you one or more rival schools enduring downcycles.
Bear Bryant took over a moribund Alabama program in 1958. He had the Crimson Tide in the Liberty Bowl in 1959 and won a national championship in 1961. There is no disputing the Bear’s ability as a coach . . . but he returned ‘Bama to prominence in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s, when Georgia was in a period of decline under Wally Butts and Johnny Griffith, Auburn was feeling the effects of probation following a 19-0-1 run in 1957 and ‘58, and Tennessee was going through a series of four-, five-, and six-win seasons after ending the 1956 and 1957 campaigns in the Sugar and Gator Bowls, respectively. LSU remained strong under Paul Dietzel and Charlie McClendon, but Coach Bryant’s teams did not face the Bayou Bengals for a five-year stretch from 1959 to 1963.
Something similar occurred at the end of Coach Bryant’s tenure in Tuscaloosa. Alabama struggled to replace the Bear and went through some comparatively lean years under Ray Perkins and Bill Curry beginning in 1983. During that same period, the Bulldogs were descending from their high water mark under Vince Dooley in the early part of the decade and Louisiana State was on a roller-coaster ride of peaks and valleys under Jerry Stovall, Bill Arnsparger, and Mike Archer. It was against that backdrop that Pat Dye was able to guide Auburn to the top of the SEC.
In between (and, to some extent, overlapping with) those periods of Alabama and Auburn dominance, Coach Dooley’s Bulldogs captured four conference championships in the seven years from 1976 to 1982. Between 1975 and 1983, the Red and Black sustained no league losses four times and suffered only one setback in SEC play on four other occasions. This stretch of Southeastern Conference success for Georgia coincided with a period during which the Plainsmen were plainly mediocre under Doug Barfield and the Gators were merely good but not great under Doug Dickey and Charley Pell. During the ‘70s and early ‘80s, when both the Bulldogs and the Tide were strong simultaneously, Alabama and Georgia rarely played, as the fallout from the Saturday Evening Post scandal in the ‘60s had caused the two teams to stop scheduling one another annually.
To some extent, the 1990s cast the reliability of this trend into doubt, as that decade saw extended runs of high-level performance from Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee simultaneously. During this period, the Volunteers faced both the Gators and the Tide each autumn, while ‘Bama ran up against the Sunshine State Saurians in the SEC championship game with regularity. Even so, though, there is little doubt that the Tide benefited from Louisiana State’s struggles under Curley Hallman and Gerry DiNardo, or that Florida and Tennessee profited from the Bulldogs’ mediocrity under Ray Goff and Jim Donnan.
As we survey the Southeastern Conference landscape in 2010, we see a surfeit of stable staffs in the West and an abundance of uncertainty in the East. Rich Brooks, Lane Kiffin, Willie Martinez, and Charlie Strong are gone. That probably points to the Western Division being the stronger of the two next fall, although playing in the stronger division of the National League didn’t help the Atlanta Braves when they survived their regular-season marathon against the San Francisco Giants in 1993 and fell to the Philadelphia Filthies in the league championship series.
Derek Dooley, George Edwards, Todd Grantham, and Joker Phillips are relatively unknown quantities at this point, and we cannot accurately anticipate how rapidly these coaches will have an impact and how beneficial they will prove to be. For all our hope that our team’s change will prove the most positive the most quickly, though, history suggests that a combination of factors is necessary to success.
We need our team to get better, but we should not underestimate the corresponding need for our rivals to get worse. While our first priority is for the Georgia defense to improve under Coach Grantham, it sure wouldn’t hurt for Derek to prove to be the lesser of two Dooleys or for the kinder, gentler Gator skipper to turn out to be Suburban Meyer. A new dynasty will not simply arise; we must root for the old ones to decline.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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One could clearly make the same argument
about Urban Meyer’s success at Florida. During his time, Tennessee was in obvious decline (Fulmer) or in the process of blowing itself up (Kiffin). Georgia was down with the exception of 2 years: 2005 in which the starting QB (Shockley) was injured and 2007 in which the Gators lost. Spurriers Gamecocks have also been nonstarters for the most part. UK and Vanderbilt are, well, UK and Vanderbilt. The same argument could be made about Saban’s years at Bama. All their rivals or serious competition during the regular season have been in varying states of downturn. LSU…godawful in 08 and still not up to snuff in 09. Auburn in a state of flux. Georgia obviously in a downturn — although the 07 team did beat them. Tennesee being Tennessee of the last 3-4 years. Arkansas adjusting to Petrino. Ole Miss coached by Orgeron/Crazy Ass Nutt. The success of all teams (and particularly those that are dominant) is necessarily dictated by the strength of their competition.
"I Run This State." - Washaun Ealey and Caleb King
by RedCrake on Jan 25, 2010 12:31 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Florida
Sort of on that same line of thinking, but a little more expansive. Look at the entire state of Florida when Urban Meyer took over at Florida. Florida State was in decline with a barely mentally together Bowden. Miami was falling apart with Larry Coker at the helm. Honestly, if you were a prospect in the state of Florida over the last few years, and you did not have a natural allegiance to Miami or Florida State, there was no reason to go to either of those schools.
Fast forward five years later, now Randy Shannon has made Miami in to a team that some are prediciting a top 10 team next year. Florida State has been on fire in recruiting since Jimbo Fisher was officially named head coach. Florida is still going to be immensely talented as always, but things will definitely be harder.
You hit the nail on the head
uf rose to prominence not only because some of the SEC teams they were facing were down, but mainly because both FSU and UM were struggling in terms of recruiting and then in terms of wins and losses. This allowed Meyer unprecedented (at least that I can remember) access to the elite players in Florida. Even during FSU’s run from 1987-2000, FSU didn’t own the recruiting in the state because UM and/or uf were good during that period too. One of the best things that could happen for Georgia is if FSU bounces back under Fisher (I don’t see UM doing the same under Shannon). FSU would not allow uf to get all of the top recruits in Florida. While FSU might compete with Georgia for some guys in south Georgia, they would help Georgia in the long run by balancing the power in terms of recruiting in Florida, thus hurting uf in the long run.
Why are people always trying to diminish CMR? I guess the SEC just "let" those 90 wins happen -pure luck.
"I look forward to developing an aggressive, physical, attacking style defense that offenses will not look forward to playing against." - Coach Grantham
I don't think it's a matter of diminishing Richt.
We cannot ignore the externalities. Richt and UGA can be great, but if there’s someone better, then we’re not number 1. Richt and UGA can be mediocre, but if there’s not someone better, then we are number 1. I’m not saying either of those 2 scenarios have happened specifically, (although there probably is a bit of truth in both of them in certain years). UGA’s performance does not occur in a vacuum. There are other teams and we play them and they play each other (I know, I know, very obvious statements. I am not talking down to you, however. Please do not misread). As first and thom points out below, it is a zero-sum game. Unless everyone is going 4-4 in the conference every year (not impossible but I don’t think it’s ever happened), then we’re going to see 8-0, 7-1, 6-2, 5-3, 5-3. 4-4. 3-5. etc. You can’t be 8-0 or 7-1 without the 2-6 and 1-7 teams. We most definitely benefited from other teams’ down years. It is cyclical. We will climb atop the SEC again, and it will not be without some thanks to a decline from Florida and Alabama
by marktheshark on Jan 25, 2010 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
But the point is that other teams do the same.
I’m not saying that we didn’t benefit from the down cycles at other schools; I’m just saying that Richt deserves as much credit for what he did during those programs’ down cycles as Saban and Meyer are getting right now for everyone else being in their down cycles.
I’ll repeat something else I’ve said about this situation: When Saban and Meyer have both been at their schools for a decade and haven’t endured the same downturn we have recently, I’ll call them better coaches that Mark Richt.
Will
Seems like some people my call it ‘decline’. When in reality its just schools having better coaches at different junctures.
Thank you, Mr. King. Thank you.
I have been saying this every time I read a post that beats the “Richt only succeeded because everyone else was down” horse again. Many Bulldog fans are the worst about it. When we won the SEC in 2005, we “backed into it.” When we beat Florida in 2007, they were “struggling” or “Tebow was injured.” Richt’s early success was only due to having NFL talent and everyone else sucking.
Just stop. Richt is a damn good coach and we’re lucky to have him. He wins and does it in a way in which we can be proud.
Will
Fact
No one dominates without help of those around them. No one. Look at the big streaks: FSU in the ACC, USC in the Pac-10, Boise State in the WAC, and even Florida and Bama with their 31-1 SEC records the past two years. All were good teams, but all benefited from down conferences.
Good coaching and good players have a lot to do with extended periods of success. When you get extended periods of dominance, which goes above and beyond success, then there’s likely external factors helping it along.
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SBNation's SEC Blog
There may be more than correlation here
You have to chalk some of this up to causation as well, from at least two sources: head-to-head play and recruiting. As a team improves, it adversely affects the record of its opponents. In terms of wins and losses, improving against the conference is a zero-sum game.
Moreover, there is at least some direct competition for recruits. I think recruiting can be over-emphasized, but the fact that recruiting is over-emphasized now does not mean that we can ignore its effect.
Don’t hear me saying that correlation is irrelevant. Instead, I posit that we need to consider both historical and relative strength in assessing dominance in the SEC.
by first and thom on Jan 25, 2010 10:09 AM EST reply actions
There is no denying the facts
Many students of UGA football history will tell you the same in re: 1980-1983. It was a combination of events that included some down SEC teams, a lot of luck (so many close finishes in that stretch), and a kid from Johnson Co., GA. In fact, I tend to cater to a school of thought that usually isn’t very popular—W/out Hershel, Dooley would have been considered just an above-average coach who probably would have ended up at Auburn starting with the 1981 season and would not be remembered as the hero he is today. And that’s it: just a couple of things like the strength(or lack thereof) of a few conference foes and one very special player can greatly change history.
And there is no denying our 2002-2005 stretch also. Florida, Alabama, and UT were down. As was mentioned, LSU had 2003 in which they beat us twice and Auburn in ’04. Come 2005, none of those teams were really that good w/ the possible exception of LSU.
My thoughts on that do not change the fact that I consider Richt one of the best coaches in the country. We’re very fortunate to have such a great leader.
How 'Bout Them Dawgs!
And before anyone jumps in with "what about '83?"...
Yes, that was a special team and we didn’t have Hershel…and we probably hade no business finishing with the record we did, but man—that was an awesome year!
How 'Bout Them Dawgs!
by Marshmanslim on Jan 25, 2010 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
Furthering the great player point...
On the NFL level Bill Belichick was considered a mediocre NFL coach until he lucked into the second best QB of his generation. Now he’s a genius.
by Biggus Rickus on Jan 25, 2010 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
This is a great, great column Kyle
I’ve often talked about the peaks and valleys of programs and that the difference between long-term and short-term success is how they are navigated. This is especially true in conferences.
Urban Meyer’s had an amazing five-year run at UF, but how he replaces Tebow and Strong will go a long way to determining if that run continues (the Gators still won SEC titles but its worth noting that they never seriously contended for another national title in the 90s once Danny Wuerrful and Bob Stoops departed).
This is ultimately the question for Les Miles at LSU and Mark Richt as well. Both tenures began to unprecedented success in the early years, and have been followed by a down turn. Their futures will depend on how they adjust to the changing circumstances to get their teams back on those up-turns.
Piggybacking on this
After Wuerrful and Co. left, it’s worth noting that Florida never won another SEC title again till 2000, as season in which both Tennessee and Georgia were down again.
by Billy Gomila on Jan 27, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

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