Week Four BlogPoll Ballot Draft
by T Kyle King on Sep 28, 2009 12:15 AM EDT
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PrintThis is the worst week of the year in which to compile a BlogPoll ballot. We have enough information gathered from the playing of actual games to toss aside many if not most of our preseason suppositions, but we lack adequate data upon which to base reliable conclusions. It’s too late in the game to ignore resumes but too early in the game to rely upon them entirely.
There are enough details available to use that we now know that we know more than nothing, but what we have before us is conflicting. The ACC started out looking like it was the Virginia Tech Hokies and no one else; then, for a week, it looked like the league had several potential good teams; now we’re back to thinking the ACC is the Virginia Tech Hokies and no one else.
In fact, after wrestling with it for a while, I abandoned all hope of being able to compile an even remotely coherent ballot based on resume ranking, so I fell back on last week’s final ballot and revised it according to this weekend’s results. The ballot thereby arrived at is an absolute hodgepodge that likely is rife with contradictions.
I offer no defense for my approach, except to say that the combination of three straight weekends featuring Georgia night games followed by four-hour lay speaking recertification courses on Sunday afternoons has left me wiped out, and, after standing in the cold and rain and yelling on Saturday night while facing the prospect of being singled out for ignominy in the alphabetical on Monday morning, I’m just flat beat. Here is the best I can do for now; your feedback is sincerely appreciated:
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||
| Rank | Team | Delta |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | |
| 2 | Texas | |
| 3 | Florida | |
| 4 | Virginia Tech |  9 |
| 5 | Southern Cal | 5 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 5 |
| 7 | Boise State |  1 |
| 8 | Oklahoma | 1 |
| 9 | TCU | 9 |
| 10 | Oregon | 14 |
| 11 | LSU | 6 |
| 12 | Iowa | |
| 13 | UCLA | 1 |
| 14 | Cincinnati | 2 |
| 15 | Nebraska | |
| 16 | South Florida | |
| 17 | Miami (Florida) | 13 |
| 18 | Houston | |
| 19 | Georgia Tech | 4 |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 1 |
| 21 | Georgia | 1 |
| 22 | South Carolina | |
| 23 | Brigham Young | 4 |
| 24 | Wisconsin | |
| 25 | Michigan | |
| Last week's ballot | ||
All that probably will make even less sense to me in the morning, so feel free to rip into that with willful abandon.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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This question isn’t directed at this particular poll list or any other, just in genera. Can anyone explain to me why football rankings are the equal and opposite of gas prices? By that I mean gas prices go up like a rocket and down like a feather while any given teams ranking is the opposite, they drop like a rock after a loss, but never seem to gain much for a win – even an unexpected win?
I apologize for not answering sooner
I’ve been giving that question some thought, and I honestly can’t come up with a reason why. I tend to think I’m at least consistent, punishing all teams equally for comparable losses and rewarding all teams equally for comparable wins, but I’ll grant that I punish a team more for losing than I reward a team for winning.
This is why I prefer resume ranking, and will be glad when time permits me to employ that method (next weekend), because then all outcomes are equal and are graded anew each week, as each win or loss changes in value based upon the opponent’s season-long performance. For instance, South Carolina’s last-second loss at Georgia Georgia’s win over South Carolina looks better in light of the Gamecocks’ win over Ole Miss and Georgia’s win over Arkansas looks worse in light of the Razorbacks’ loss to Alabama. The value of any particular win or loss changes over time.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Cincy
Whether we’re resume ranking by this point or if we’re looking at potential ’09 success, Cincy has to be at or near the top.
Weighing in
I still don’t understand why you place UCLA anywhere in the poll. Their best win is over Tennessee. Tennessee’s closer-than-the-final-score victory over Ohio is the first D-I win for any of UCLA’s opponents.
Houston’s wins at Ok State and vs. TT are each significantly better than a two point victory over Tennessee.
Missouri (at Illinois, at Nevada, vs BG) has done more than UCLA. South Florida has played one D-I opponent, but they have a better resume than UCLA.
If South Carolina played UCLA tomorrow and lost, I would be pissed. Not disappointed, but “How did we lose to this team?” pissed. Despite the Bulldog’s penchant for sharing the ball, I suspect UGa fans would feel the same way. If a team provokes that reaction, it is not a top 15 outfit.
by GwinnettGamecock on Sep 28, 2009 2:23 AM EDT reply actions
Good points
I don’t know why I believe in UCLA, but I do. I’ll bear your arguments in mind when making revisions, though.
Go 'Dawgs!
I agree
Until UCLA starts beating some real competition in the Pac-10, I don’t see how you can rank them for beating a low-level Big 12 team and a mid-level SEC team. Those two conferences are just terrible, man. ;)
(Yes, I’m kidding.)
On a serious note, I agree that I don’t think UCLA’s record means a whole lot at this point. They could very easily be 3-3 after the next three weeks. I had the Bruins finishing somewhere around 7-5 or (possibly) 8-4 if they beat Tennessee, and lo and behold, they beat Tennessee. I still think the ceiling is somewhere around 7-5. If they come out of the next three weeks with a 4-2 record, I’ll be quite pleased. They’re going to lose a couple coming up, though – the meat of their schedule is basically the next three weeks before it eases off a bit.
But I don’t think that gets them ranked at #13. I think they’re probably just on the outside of the poll, but I know you’re not going to rank them that low. ;)
On another note, GG, I tend to think your “How the hell did we lose to this team” point is kinda’ odd – considering UCLA and South Carolina are basically the same team from a talent and depth perspective. I wouldn’t be shocked if UCLA beat South Carolina at all. I think that has a lot to do with your perspective of the strength of UCLA rather than an objective analysis.
Of course, about the only two teams in the SEC that I’d be truly shocked about losing to anyone would be Alabama and Florida, so I’m not sure if my skepticism comes from a belief in UCLA or a complete lack of faith in the rest of the SEC this year.
Because I've had a fair amount of back-and-forth . . .
. . . with Pac-10 bloggers of various team affiliations, I have come to appreciate the fact that the Pac-10 and the SEC are more alike than they are different, and not just because most of us had the good sense to settle in areas where the weather permitted us to play baseball in February. (Curse you, Big Ten, for your dastardly uniform start date!)
Pac-10 teams have a habit of knocking one another off, just like SEC teams do, and that’s true at the top as much so as in the middle. While the SEC has spread it around a bit more, we’ve seen the three dominant SEC programs of the 21st century (Georgia, Florida, and LSU) suffer the same sorts of fates that annually sidetrack Southern California, as the Bulldogs lost to an inferior Florida team in 2002, the Tigers lost to an inferior Florida team in 2003, the Bulldogs lost to an inferior Florida team in 2005, the Gators lost to an inferior Auburn team in 2006, the Tigers lost to an inferior Kentucky team in 2007, and the Gators lost to an inferior Mississippi team in 2008, just as USC seems perennially to stumble against a lesser league foe.
Last Saturday’s outing in Athens ought to tell us something about what happens when a middle-of-the-pack Pac-10 team meets a middle-of-the-pack SEC team; the result is a close game.
Accordingly, I have a tough time taking too much away from UCLA. The Bruins beat Tennessee by four points in Knoxville. The Gators beat Tennessee by ten points in Gainesville. If we accept the conventional wisdom that home field advantage is worth a field goal, that translates to UCLA being seven points better than Tennessee at a neutral site and Florida being seven points better than Tennessee at a neutral site.
The Gators have manhandled Division I-AA Charleston Southern, lower-tier Troy, and mediocre Kentucky, which means they’ve beaten those teams as badly as expected, and UCLA has beaten San Diego State and Kansas State by solid but still lesser margins at home, so I certainly wouldn’t put the Bruins above or even near Florida, but, because their respective “best wins” are comparable, I can’t conscientiously submarine UCLA, either.
Go 'Dawgs!
Also,
whoever that guy was last week that suggested Penn State and Ole Miss were overrated, he should get some sort of medal.
by GwinnettGamecock on Sep 28, 2009 2:27 AM EDT reply actions
In defense of Cincinnati
On a serious note, I think Cincinnati deserves consideration for a higher spot. They have beaten Rutgers (as close as a Big East team comes to being considered “top-tier”) on the road, Oregon State (a solid top-third Pac-10 team) on the road, and a tough Fresno State team at home.
I would argue that their early-season resume places them easily above both UCLA and Iowa (whose early-season wins have come against paper tigers), and possibly even above LSU, who has only one road win to their credit. (True that said road win came against a Pac-10 opponent that subsequently defeated Southern Cal… but SC always seems to lose against a lesser opponent from the Pacific Northwest.)
C'mon Kyle.....
Go ahead and flip Cincy & UCLA-you know you want to!!!!
But Cincy is no Top-10 team…….I would have to say the teams at 9-12 would put a whoopin’ on the Bearcats any day!!
Kyle,
Do you honestly think LSU is better than UGA? You aren’t artificially ranking your next opponent higher than they should be to make UGA look better are you?
On another topic…
What is the best option for a bar to watch the game in, in athens, for opposing fans who may not have a ticket to the game?
Any bar in Athens is a good bar
Athens is one of those true college bar towns – plus the stadium is close enough to town that you could spend time looking for tickets and still make it back to town for kickoff if you are unsuccessful.
Best Athens bar
You can’t go wrong with Allgoods. It has two floors, an upstairs patio, professional bartenders, and plenty of talent, both alums and current students. The place is packed out on a gameday, and everyone is focused on the numerous flatscreens.
The floor guys also do a great job of politely handling potential problems before they become unruly, but will quickly eject anyone if they get out of hand. Make Allgoods your first choice.
by GwinnettGamecock on Sep 28, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Right on, man
Allgood is usually a stop on my nights out in Athens. Right along with Walker’s and Boar’s Head.
by The ArchDawg on Sep 28, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Well done, GwinnettGamecock
You should write copy for radio advertising. Seriously, if Pete Jayhawk read your comment aloud, it’d be a commercial.
Go 'Dawgs!
In my defense, LSU Jonno . . .
. . . I’ve been dropping LSU steadily due to the Tigers’ underwhelming performances, but the Washington win acquired (then promptly lost) some luster last week, and the Bayou Bengals are 4-0.
But, no, I’m not boosting them in order to overrate Georgia’s next opponent . . . although I agree that neither has played up to its potential, and that no result between the hedges would surprise me on Saturday.
Are you definitely going to be in Athens this weekend, or is that just an aspirational goal?
Go 'Dawgs!
It is 100% happening.
We are staying in Douglasville? Friday night with some extended family then heading to Athens in the morning. We don’t have tickets to the game, but since we live in Alabama we wanted to take the relatively short drive to experience Athens.
So, equally as important as the bar question… Coming from Douglasville, how early should we get out and about to try to dodge some traffic? How insane is it heading to Athens from Atlanta? I don’t think we’d have a problem getting on the road by 7am if we had to, but like most humans we enjoy sleep. We’d really like to get to Athens early enough to check out the campus.
Also, what is the flooding situation there, has that all subsided or do we need to be on the lookout for detours etc?
LSU ranked higher than Ga?
Surely. The Dogs are just a couple of plays from being 0-4.
And LSU isn't?
Discounting games against cupcakes, if Washington has a kicker or if Mississippi State pushes the ball four more inches, LSU ain’t looking at their 4-0 record, either.
by The ArchDawg on Sep 28, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
LSU was a few inches from losing to MSU
The same MSU that many thought could go winless in the SEC this year.
The Tigeaux have played awful ball against awful-to-mediocre competition. They’ve got just as many questions going into Saturday as we do.
by D.N. Nation on Sep 28, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i say we have more issues
We have a qb who just threw for more than 200 yds for his first time this season last game. And that was only b/c MSU played their safeties 10 yds off the line of scrimage.
I expect LSU to abandon the run this week and only run around the end w/ holliday and Shephard, or else they will be throwing all day.
No.Way.
’SC is not a top ten team, much less a top 5. Boise and Cincy and Iowa have all done better than that…
"Hollywood made a movie of my life. The film had me proposing to my wife on the football field. I would never misuse a football field that way." -Crazy Legs Hirsch
by Stuck in the Plains on Sep 28, 2009 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
If you're resume ranking
Nebraska has no business being that high.
Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].
I agree on both counts
This is not, however, strictly a resume-based ballot, because, quite frankly, my weekend was too hectic for me to put the time into it that resume ranking requires. Next weekend, with a 3:30 kickoff in Athens and an open Sunday afternoon, I will be able to do a better (or, at least, more intellectually consistent) job.
I’m with you on the Cornhuskers, though. Which team do you think belongs in the top 25 in place of Nebraska?
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on Sep 29, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
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