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Where in the Top 25 Should the Ole Miss Rebels Be . . . and Should They Be Far From Georgia Tech?

August is upon us, which means it’s time for Brian to cull the BlogPoll (I managed to avoid getting booted out this year? whew!) and the coaches to release their preseason rankings. Naturally, I am already in full football mode, so I have been contemplating my initial top 25 for a while now.

In that vein, I would like to share a few thoughts on the Mississippi Rebels from regular Dawg Sports reader, Ole Miss alumnus, and my brother-in-law, rebelcraig, who wrote the following to me in an e-mail:

It seems that through the course of this off-season, Ole Miss has gone from everybody's favorite dark horse to everybody's pick to be the most overrated team in the country, all without having played a game yet. No doubt the truth is somewhere in the middle. If I'm making a power poll of the most talented teams in the country, Ole Miss is probably somewhere in the teens. But the schedule is so shamefully light that they're likely to be favored in all 12 regular season games. (Getting LSU and Bama in Oxford is the only reason this may be the case, but that's the way it's worked out this year.) So I guess everyone who's picking them near the top five must be doing so because they're predicting that the Rebs should be able to navigate that slate with few blemishes at the end.

My question at the moment though is this - why not Georgia Tech? Both teams went 9-4 last year. Both teams will be in the second year of a new coach's system, and both of those coaches established themselves as consistent performers in their last job. Both have a manageable schedule in a BCS conference. Both teams have the bulk of their talent returning (16 starters for Ole Miss, 18 for Georgia Tech). Both finished 2008 in strong fashion, although here's where the largest difference lies - Ole Miss beat a top 10 team in their bowl game, while GT got routed by an unranked SEC foe who had been previously beaten soundly by the Rebels. Still, anyone who's ranking Ole Miss sixth or seventh in the nation should by the same rationale be looking at Georgia Tech around at least ninth or tenth. But I don't really hear anybody doing so.

I didn’t really have a lot to offer in reply, except to say that (a) the two teams play in different conferences and (b) I think both teams are somewhat overrated.

As we learned the hard way last year, a dominant bowl performance at the end of one year can be misleading to the pollsters heading into the next, but I’m curious to learn what everyone thinks about the relative strengths of the Rebels and the Yellow Jackets.

Go ‘Dawgs!

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Excellent point...

… and if you want to carry the comparison further, one might rightly question whether or not Tech should be ranked above Ole Miss. Paul Johnson’s teams have a greater consistency of success than Houston Nutt’s teams, who (at least at Arkansas) never had consecutive 9-win seasons.

In addition, Tech’s schedule is only slightly more difficult than Mississippi’s. The Rebels’ nonconference opponents are Memphis, SE Lousiana, UAB, and Northern Arizona. The nonconference opponents for the Golden Tornado are Jacksonville State, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Georgia.

That would seem to be wildly lopsided, since Georgia Tech is playing 3 SEC teams, but you also have to consider that the gnats play in the ACC, while the Rebels play in the SEC. Tech’s conference games are against Clemson, Miami (FL), UNC, FSU, Va. Tech, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Duke. Ole Miss has conference ties against S. Carolina, Vandy, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi State.

While Ole Miss certainly dodged a bullet by avoiding Florida and Georgia this year, their schedule is certainly no less difficult than the ACC test faced by Tech, and I would argue is still more difficult, with Arkansas, Alabama, and LSU as the 3 top-level teams on the slate. The only truly top-notch team on Tech’s conference schedule is Va. Tech.

So, using this logic, Tech has a more consistent coach, an easier schedule, and also has their key offensive personnel returning… not to mention that they have the motivation of “having to prove something” after they were waxed like a professional wrestler in their bowl game. So, I guess, Tech should be ranked higher than Ole Miss, after all.

by vineyarddawg on Aug 8, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ole Miss and Georgia Tech are a very comparable

squads. Both could have seasons either poised for greatness or could crash and burn. By Ole Miss & Tech standards, I’m seeing solid years for both, but no hardware. Conventional wisdom on Houston Nutt teams is that they do better when the expectations are lower. I most definitely think the Rebels are overrated, but should still be no worse than no. 3 team in the SEC West, 9-3-ish. Tech is a tough one to figure. Their schedule is no cream puff (away at FSU, UNC & Miami,— Va Tech, & UGA at home) I’m not buying that teams will have an easier time with Tech’s offense in year two. I think Tech’s offense will be double-tough. Their problem is with defense. If their defense had comparable ability, Tech would be an ACC title contender and threat for a BCS bowl. But since they don’t, I’m looking for Tech to be in a number of high-scoring donnybrooks—-a number of which they’ll be on the wrong side of. Tech’s got a lot of offensive talent, which should be enough for an 8-4 record in Johnson’s sophomore effort on the flats.

by Farsider on Aug 8, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The conventional wisdom on Houston Nutt ...

is, I think, probably more conventional than wise. Only once, 2007, did a Nutt team finish ranked lower (unranked after a Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri – though after Nutt had resigned) than its preseason ranking (AP 21).

Taking the position that Houston Nutt’s teams tend to go on high-reaching hot streaks before plummeting back down to reality may be more defensible. Arkansas 2006 reached the Top 5, you may remember, but ended the season with losses to BCS-bound LSU, national champion Florida, and Wisconsin to finish ranked … 16th? This is, though, the highest-ranked and most heralded team in (pre-season) in Houston’s coaching career. So predictions about how he will handle the pressure are, I think, premature.

It might also be more defensible, as Hog fans have pointed out often, that Houston underachieves in recruiting and player development. The fact that Houtson achieved no better than a #17 preseason ranking in a career at Arkansas that saw players like Clint Steorner, Matt Jones, and Darren McFadden is a worthy indictment of his ability to build a team.

Luckily for Ole Miss, the most important pieces of Ole Miss 2009 – the quarterback and the defensive line – were pre-packaged for Coach Nutt and ready upon arrival.

Destroying your traditions since [YEAR REDACTED].

by Ivory Tower on Aug 10, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We are not prepared for this.

As an Ole Miss fan born after the Truman administration, I for one am not prepared for the preseason hype. I’ve done the full 180. A scant few months ago, Manic Craig had visions of a “Snead Vs. Colt” storyline highlighting the Rebels’ matchup with the Longhorns in the National Championship game. Now Depressive Craig is rearing his ugly head, and as of today I’m not only expecting an opening weekend loss to Memphis, I’m almost hoping for it. This dream is not gonna happen, so let’s get it out of the way early so I can go on watching the rest of the season with the comfortably low expectations to which I have grown accustomed.

by rebelcraig on Aug 8, 2009 10:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

After last year, it's been Depressive Kyle 24/7

Since Depressive Craig will be on hand for the 2009 season, as well, and since our other brother-in-law lives in Depressive Trav realm (at least insofar as football season is concerned), I think we’re looking at one sedate crowd at our in-laws’ house at Thanksgiving.

Sigh. Typing “24/7” reminded me of Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford. Now I’m even more depressed.

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Aug 8, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to split hairs,

but I suppose someone born during the Eisenhower administration might have some slight memories of the Rebels’ glory days of the 50’s and early 60’s. I’m just anticipating some of you doing the math on that and wondering why I went with Truman. I didn’t want you to think that I could have gotten a degree from Ole Miss without knowing when Harry Truman was president. Either way, I’m sure you got the point, and I’ve now almost certainly over-explained myself.

by rebelcraig on Aug 8, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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