Ouch...That's Gotta Hurt
by RedCrake on Aug 21, 2009 9:14 AM EDT
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PrintI know I just got done ripping ESPN, but Kiper has his way too early look at the top NFL draft prospects up and I just couldn't resist reading it.
I think our favorite jorts-wearing football messiah is gonna be pissed. No doubt it will be a big deal to Corch Meyers.
Here's Kiper's list of SR QB's:
1. Colt McCoy, Texas
2. Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan
3. Tim Tebow, Florida
4. Tim Hiller, Western Michigan
5. Tony Pike, Cincinnati
The Filipino Circumciser may have a Heisman, but he just got ranked between directional Michigan QB's.
And didn't ESPN describe LeFevour as Tebow-lite?
Note that this doesn't include juniors Bradford and Snead, both of whom Kiper has ranked above all the seniors. So at best, Kiper has Tebow as the 5th best QB in the draft. These guys usually go in the late 2nd to 3rd round and play the role of perennial backup. Although, the Raiders look to once again have a Top 10 pick, so Tebow could go ahead of Bradford, Snead, and McCoy after all.
We all know that this is "way too early" to be making predictions about draft status and rankings...but Lil' Timmy better hope that I-formation works because I don't know that there is any other way he can improve his resume...short of declaring for the draft as a RB/TE.
In Georgia news, Kiper has Rennie Curran ranked as the #2 underclassman OLB and Reshad Jones as the #4 underclassman Safety.
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Kiper
Hasn’t been significant in a decade. If you look at the numbers his predictions trail everyone else who even bothers making them. A rookie QB is much better off NOT being the top ranked guy – because that only means he’ll be drafted by a decrepit team like the Lions and will be destined for failure regardless of his skill set.
Also, Tebow may be a good NFL player or he may never play a down. Does it really matter?!?!
Eh.
QBs who started last year and were top-5 overall picks…
Peyton Manning – picked #1 overall by a bad Colts team
Phillip Rivers – was drafted #4 overall by a bad Giants team, then traded to a bad Chargers team (albeit one with Ladanian Tomlinson) for #1 overall pick Eli Manning
Matt Ryan (#1 overall pick)
Donovan McNabb (#2 overall pick, albeit the 2nd QB)
Kerry Collins (#5 overall pick, 2nd QB)
JaMarcus Russel (#1 overall pick)
Other notes…
Carson Palmer was a #1 overall pick, but was injured for most of last year
And only Russell, of all of those guys, can really be considered to be bad. Now, there were lots of top-5 QBs that didn’t make it or which we really don’t know on, but when you consider that NFL teams only need one starting QB, and a failed QB cannot fall back to another position, the washout rate for top QBs isn’t really any worse than other positions. Still, if you go back the last ten years, the top-5 QB failures are
2006 – Vince Young
2005 – Alex Smith
2002 – David Carr and Joey Harrington
2001 – Mike Vick (though his failure was due to non-football reasons)
1999 – Tim Couch and Akili Smith (though note McNabb was in between these guys)
1998 – Ryan Leaf
So 7 starters, only one of which is questionable, and eight failures, one of which is a serviceable backup (Harrington) and two whose teams haven’t admitted failure with yet (or really three, if you count JaMarcus).
Just a small fix
but Matt Ryan was the 3rd overall pick, but he was the first qb taken in the 2008 draft.
In Dimitroff we trust
Every time I look a ton of stuff up for blog comment or a message board post...
…. there’s one little mistake :).
Yep...
Tebow may be a good NFL player or he may never play a down. Does it really matter?!?!
If you are Tim, it matters. If you are me and don’t give a Rats Ass about pro football, it really doesn’t. It’s all about the college game.
I’ll be glad when Tebow’s gone. Good luck to him in the NFL…sincerely.
I was a freshman in 1980. No wonder my GPA never recovered.
by DavetheDawg on Aug 22, 2009 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
No it absolutely does not. Moreover I still think Tebow's gonna be attractive to teams because of all the rage surrounding the Wild Cat Offense.
I mean even if Tebow can’t be an every down QB, given his style of play and his work ethic, I think there’s a good shot he could be a good situational (read Wild Cat formation) QB. Cordel Stewart made a living off of being a change of pace QB. And if QB doesn’t work he could be a good fullback. He’s tough to bring down in short yardage situations. Truth be told, that’s probably the one area where you’re offense might miss him most. You guys seem to be a little low and power runners in short yardage situations.
by charlottedawg on Aug 22, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right....
That it doesn’t matter what Kiper thinks in reality. However, insomuch, as Meyer and the University of Florida bank on the perception of the program created by the media it does matter.
Tebow may be a great NFL player, but if he isn’t you don’t think QB’s may think twice about playing for Meyer… Two Heisman trophy winners who go bust at the next level? One of whom wouldn’t even get much of a signing bonus were he to fall that far?
Like it or not, perception does matter — particularly to easily influenced high school kids — and the media has a massive impact on what recruits think of a program and its coach. Players may want to win championships and trophies, but star players want to get paid.
Behold, this year's College Gameday Sign:
"Joe Cox -- He circumcises ANGELS!"
Just realized that I put Smith as a Heisman Winner...
Which he isn’t. He was 1st pick in the draft which is what I meant to say. We all know how that one worked out.
Behold, this year's College Gameday Sign:
"Joe Cox -- He circumcises ANGELS!"
Meyer's ability to recruit
Doesn’t seem to be waning just yet. I also think that star players often think so much of themselves that they’ll believe they are NFL bound regardless of who coaches them. So why not go somewhere where you’ll have a chance to play for championships in the meantime.
next year
UF should have two first round def picks….and possibly the best TE (if he comes out) he had percy last year go first round, so i dont think anyone is gonna think going to UF will not get them in the NFL…..tebow will be in the nfl too, even if it is 2nd or 3rd round.
by silverstreak3k on Sep 1, 2009 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I was referring specifically to recruiting the QB position
Part of the reason USC has recruited such high profile QB’s is because Palmer and Leinart were first round picks.
If Stafford is a massive NFL success, young QB’s will look more closely at Georgia.
If Tebow tears through the NFL with stats like he had in college, it will make Florida even more appealing to young quarterbacks. I just happen to think that if he tanks after the Alex Smith bust, some players may have second thoughts about how well Meyer’s offense prepares them for the NFL.
Behold, this year's College Gameday Sign:
"Joe Cox -- He circumcises ANGELS!"
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