Your Guide to the Emotional Roller Coaster That Will Be the 2009 Season

I may not make it to week five.

You’ll be able to find me hanging in my closet clutching a plush UGA and an empty bottle of Johnny Walker Black — in a non-Michael Hutchence/David Carradine sort of way.

You must know I have family that are Carolina and Arkansas fans. I swear I might have to sequester myself from the family if those first five weeks played out like that.

I firmly believe the Dawgs will start the season 4-0. Lose to Arizona State? at home? surely you jest…..

That was a roller coaster just reading that. I can’t even imagine what I would do if a season actually played out like that…I don’t think I’d make it through it. Although, this does lend itself to my personal win streak against Florida (We’ve never lost when I’ve been inside Alltel/Jacksonville Municipal Stadium for that game). We come in at 4-3, I should definitely be able to afford tickets, which means I’ll be able to go, which means we’ll win.

Your predictions remind me a bit of 2007. Only this year, there’s a big thud at the end that wasn’t there the first go round. I think I like the ‘07 version better. But, I could absolutely see us starting off like that. I’ve been saying we’d lose to Arkansas since March.

I’d just like to suggest that a win over OkSU won’t cause any pundits to proclaim us NC contenders. If we beat them, the emphasis will be on the overratedness of OkSU, possibly with a healthy sprinkling of the now commonly accepted maxim “Big 12 can’t play defense.” I don’t see us cracking the top ten, either. We haven’t yet seen the AP poll, but I can’t see us going any higher than 11 (OkSU’s old spot) in the Coaches’ poll.

Personally, I’m preparing myself to read absolutely nothing into that game. We could lose because we’re going to be bad, or we could lose to a legitimate top ten and BCS-bound team. We could win because we’re going to be great, or we could win because OkSU is overrated and bound for another Holiday Bowl. So while I’d prefer a W in its appropriate column over an L, I’m not going to let either one dictate my feelings on how the subsequent season will play out.

I had a very buoyant July and early August (Kyle’s having taken on a doom-and-gloom posture notwithstanding), electing to slake my summer thirst with Kool-Aid of the cupboard-is-always-stocked variety (I’ve always been fond of potables and comestibles featuring a nice, sharp ginger*). All of a sudden, Richt’s comments about practice “beating us” yesterday, this post, Caleb’s injury, Schlabach’s recent piece (Defenses just trying to keep up), thoughts of Dwyer’s return, and who knows what other little things have polluted that Kool-Aid with a curious and unwelcome bitterness.

I’m optimistic by nature. I’m trying to embrace the less-than-sweet taste I now find in my cup, but it’s difficult. My father has always been keen on conditioning oneself for the worst to set up a pleasant surprise or avoid an unexpected disappointment, but I’m just not drawn that way. I tend not to see the practical use of electing to place oneself in a posture of disappointment unless absolutely necessary — it conflicts with my religious beliefs. But I’m still trying.

*I tried to find a distinctly Liberian food or drink to include in the Kool-Aid recipe, but came up empty-handed — just sharing the process.

I was looking at the schedule the other day noticing the same thing you point out about our first 4, if not 5 opponents. That they have no real competition until they meet Georgia on the field. This sparked a discussion between a friend and I about whether or not this was to our advantage or disadvantage.
He took your stance while I assumed this would actually be to UGA’s benefit. With no real test or measurement of how their teams are, they will have to face a very seasoned (so early in the season) UGA team. Its possible SC is a trap, but by then we’ll have had 2 really good BCS games under our belt, rolling into Arkansas who, may be rested, but will not be tested. Same with AZ State. And really, argument could be made that LSU plays nobody until us either except the Pac10 and SEC bottom feeders.

If I were not a busy man, I’d like to do some research into the W-L records of such a theory.

I’m the overly optimistic type. So I’m going to throw out my predictions – surely to be wrong – but of course that’s what this time of the season is for. And I’m not a paid analyst so I can be wrong but if I’m right, then 100 cocktails to me and all of you will thank me. …

Seems that most are pegging this as an 06 type of season, but I think the difference is that while Cox doesn’t bring any more meaningful game experience than Stafford did in 06, there is still a big difference between a freshman and a senior. I think the renewed focus on tackling in camp (what a concept!) will help the D show a marked improvement. And yes, the D ends are "unproven" but Houston showed some real flash at the end of last season and having Owens back in the middle with Atkins, the OLines are now going to have to really account for the middle, leaving more one on one opportunities for the ends. So here’s my in-depth "analysis". Sorry, I didn’t spend all summer attending camps and breaking down film:

OK St – Win. Not a blowout, will be a slugfest, but I just think we are just too good of a road team.

SC – Loss. I do think SC having the extra days to prepare and us coming back late – both in a game that ALWAYS gives us trouble no matter the talent gaps – will catch up with us.

Arkansas – Win (see OK St, just with more defense from the Dawgs)

ASU – Win. They can’t be better this year can they? And then to be away from home?

LSU – Loss. While I think we stack up talent wise very well and even though we own them recently, I just think we come up short, 23-20 or something. Or maybe this is a blowout – the team treating us to our yearly headscratcher. Either way, against a talented team, we are just a little out of gas from the opening stretch.

UT – Win. Here though I think we’ve got more talent and UT is still finding their way. Enough to earn a hard fought 24-14 win.

Vandy – Win (it’s Vandy)

UF – Win. Like everyone else, call it wishful thinking, but I like the bye week – more so than the defending champ stat. We have certainly have the talent to hang with the Gators and I think we play with more of an edge after last year, though I hate to have to be spanked 49-10 to have an "edge". It was like we were timid and just assumed “Well they owe us from the Celebration” so we don’t need to fight back. I think this team fights back. But for kicks and giggles, the football gods will give us a win that talent-wise we probably aren’t supposed to have – only to kick us in the nuts when UF goes on to win the SEC anyways and ultimately the NC with that joke of a schedule…excuse me, I had to go throw up a little…

TT – Win (at least it’s not a directional school)

Auburn – Win. Same as UT and a little like SC – always a close, tough game and while AU will have had time to adjust to a new staff/scheme, I just think talent will carry us again.

KY – Win (its KY)

Yech – Ugh. This one is tough. My heart says UGA but I think my head says Yech after a second year to install the offense (shut up brain or I’ll stab you with a Qtip!). So I’m going to be a homer and pick us. Our improved defense (with Owens/Atkins pushing the middle and Reshad looking to "avenge" his game from last year) will be the difference. But still a close game.

So there you have it. 10-2. Some of this is based on our tendencies from the past (always a strong road team, usually a headscratching loss) or how certain games (like SC or AU) seem to follow a pattern. And I know, "talent" isn’t the most insightful analysis, but in college football, it is one of the bigger factors. The UF and Yech are probably a little blind homerism calls, so we will probably actually end up 8-4. But I’m just going to have faith in the team. GO DAWGS!

I’ve decided that the W-L ratio doesn’t concern all that much. What I really want is a game — preferably games, but I’ll be happy with just one — that I’ll remember forever. E.g.: SEC Championship game, 2005. Massacre on the Plains and Second Half Comeback in the Dome in 2006. Florida, Auburn and Hawaii in 2007.

Those are all games that have special meaning to me, and while 2008 might top 2006 in the W category, I’ll always remember 2006 more fondly for the giddy joy I experienced as I watched Traa Battle leap into the endzone at Jordan-Hare with a pick six. (Obviously nothing even approximating this kind of electric excitement hit me last year; even as I watched Darryl Gamble run in his own pick six in Death Valley I couldn’t shake the feeling that it was too good to be true.)

So we can go 7-5 this year, I’m cool with that (relatively speaking. I’ll still weep many a tear for my team and our 8-4 hopes). But as long as we have one Good Win, one cough “Shining Moment” when everything clicks and we take it to a major rival (Winning at Florida or Tech by two points in five overtimes would suffice for this season), and I’ll be satisfied.

Think about it: the most imfamous play of the Mark Richt era (Hobnail Boot) came in the year which, thus far, produced the lowest win total. So again: lose three, four, five, Bulldogs (but preferably not six), I don’t care. Just give us another Hobnail Boot, another legendary moment that we’ll never forget. Joe Cox proved he was capable as a redshirt freshman of a miracle win over Colorado; maybe as a fifth-year senior he can give us a miracle win over Florida. Or maybe it could be “Run, AJ, Run!”; it doesn’t matter. It’s all I ask of the ’09 Dawgs: forget about rankings and records: give us a game to remember.

Not to piss on the fire here, but it looks like he could sit out against OSU. Not that Richard Samuel is a slouch, but to lose your expected #1 RB with such a tough non-conference matchup isn’t great news.

Most of your prognostications look pretty sound (even if i happen to disagree with some of them)

… but losing to a mediocre Pac 10 team at home?

No

Way

In

Hell

.