The 2009 Georgia Bulldogs Are Overrated . . . or Underrated
by T Kyle King on Jul 26, 2009 1:39 PM EDT
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PrintA consensus appears to be forming. Phil Steele has the Georgia Bulldogs ranked 13th. Athlon Sports has them ranked 14th. The Sporting News has them ranked 15th. Lindy’s gave the Red and Black the nod at No. 17.
Everyone seems to think the ‘Dawgs will finish the season ranked in the mid-teens. There’s only one problem with this theory.
No one believes that. You don’t believe it, I don’t believe it, and the people compiling lists of the top 25 teams in the land don’t believe it.
I don’t believe anyone thinks Georgia will be the No. 15 team in the country the second week in January 2010. That’s a hedge . . . and not of the Sanford Stadium variety.
The pollsters are splitting the difference between two extremes, one or the other of which will come to pass.
Either the Classic City Canines will come together as a team, quickly find their sea legs, put together a surprising record against a daunting schedule, and finish in the top ten, or the Red and Black will falter as a result of their brutal slate and personnel changes and finish ranked outside the top 20.
It’s one or the other. No one seriously thinks it won’t be one of those two possibilities, and neither of those prospects will yield a final ranking at or near No. 15.
Everyone who has the ‘Dawgs pegged between 13th and 17th knows this, but no one---not even Steele, who annually raises eyebrows with the boldness of his preseason predictions---has the guts to go out on a limb and pick Mark Richt’s club either to excel (after last year) or to collapse (after the seven preceding seasons).
So which is it? This year’s expectations almost certainly are wrong, but in which direction? Is No. 15 sandbagging or wishful thinking?
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Yes, BUT....
I certainly understand the thinking here, and it’s obvious pre-season assessments of the Dawgs are indeed divided between those who see Stafford and Moreno gone and can’t imagine the team improving over last year’s record, and those who focus on the vastly better situation on the O- and D-lines, and figure there’s plenty of talent at the skill positions. Since the first assessment is characteristic of those who don’t look very closely at the team as a whole, I find myself generally in the second, more optimistic camp.
But T. Kyle’s bottom line does exclude the strong possibility of major in-season changes in performance, such as those we saw so abundantly in 2007. Our early schedule is among the toughest in the country; in the first five games we play two teams ranked above us (Okie State and LSU); another we’ve always struggled to beat (USC); and still another that has probably penciled in the Georgia game as a “signature” upset possibility (Arkansas). I could see Cox taking some time to settle down as a starter; I could see the running-back shuffle taking a while to sort out; and I could see it also taking a while to establish a pass rush (e.g., after Justin Houston’s suspension ends). And then there’s the whole issue of whether some true freshmen might emerge to contribute later in the year.
So it may be entirely plausible that the Dawgs could have some early-season stumbles and then congeal into a world-beater later on. More specifically, if you buy the idea that Georgia can’t beat Florida, is likely to lose either to Okie State or LSU, and could easily lose one other game at some point in the season, a mid-teens finish is entirely plausible.
What makes this all so complicated is that there are so many teams on the schedule with as many question marks as the Dawgs. To that extent, almost everyone other than the very methodological Mr. Steele is pretty much throwing at dartboards in making predictions this year.
This year...
We could go up or down. Last year we could only go down (and teams that go wire to wire are few and far between…hear that Gaytors? Charleston Southern has your number). Frankly, I prefer the options this year provides.
Behold, this year's College Gameday Sign:
"Joe Cox -- He circumcises ANGELS!"
by RedCrake on Jul 26, 2009 6:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
What else are you to do with preseason polls?
Preseason polls are completely useless anyway, so why not compromise in the manner that Kyle is suggesting they are doing?
I mean, if you look at the schedule, Georgia could legitimately be anywhere from 6-6 to 10-2. If they go 10-2, they’ll probably end up in the top 10. If they go anything less than 8-4, they’ll be out of the top 20. A ranking of 15 seems about right to me as a way to split the difference.
Once the season begins, the teams should be ranked according to their actual achievements on the field, not according to pollsters’ wild, partially-educated guesses about how good they should be in the preseason. It’s for this reason that I agree with Kyle’s philosophy of “resume ranking” in the Blogpoll, even if I don’t always agree with his analysis of the resumes themselves.
I'm a Big East guy and all that...
… but I really think the mid-teens is just about right. The 2nd-tier SEC teams after Florida (and I’m just talking about this season, and in retrospect last second here) really all cluster between 15-25 in terms of actual merit in my book, though one of you is likely to slip through the regular season with two losses and a top 10 ranking and another one will likely lose five games — most of them close — and fall out of the top 25 (and I have no idea who that will be). I’d say that would doom said SEC runner-up to a BCS bowl game loss, but that really depends how everything else plays out.
about right?
This team has a lot to prove. If we don’t have injury problems I think we’ll finish around 14. Injuries aside, there’s still no reason to believe CWM knows what he’s doing. We were that beatup against Alabama and they scored at will in the first half. That kind of first half meltdown has occurred often since he’s been the coach.
Our schedule might not be that daunting this year; last year we had a nightmareish schedule (on paper)
But when the rubber met the road, Florida and Bama were really the only tough teams we played. Granted those teams were exceptional but still no else was. And there’s no reason why things can’t pan out the same way this year. I don’t think Oklahoma State is gonna be as tough as people think. I mean that conference plays lousy defense. Playing in the SEC and doing so successfully (which we have done better than all but Florida and LSU since 2k) is like being a marine, you’re prepared for anything. This year our two toughest games are probably gonna be LSU (based on much improved QB play in the Peach Bowl) and Florida (no explanation necessary). So going into Bowl season there’s no reason we shouldn’t be 10-2. Hell, if we’re really motivated, going 11-1 isn’t out of the realm of possiblities. Plus history is on our side with respect to supposed rebuilding years under CMR. He never has been able to successfully take a team with high preseason expectations and help them reach their full potential (See 2003, 2004, 2008). That’s not a knock on the guy, its just stating history. (And if you’ll notice, two of those years he had Van Gorder running his defense). However, in years when he’s supposedly had to rebuild he’s done well (05, 06, 07). I know in 06 we went 9-4. However, most people forget that even with Stafford struggling as a freshmen, we lost two of those four games because of missed field goals when Brandon Couto was hurt (so that could have been an 11-2 team). If you’ll also notice during the years 05, 06, 07 Willie was running the D. So regardless of how effective (or ineffective he might be in comparison to Van Gorder) he clearly knows enough to get out of his own way during rebuilding years.
Oklahoma State
might indeed be overrated, but you sure better hope y’all’s D coordinator slides that safety over the top on Dez Bryant, otherwise it could be long night, cause this kid is a beast.
No matter how lousy of defense you think is being played in the Big 12, Oklahoma did hold Florida to a lot less points last year than Georgia. Oklahoma State’s defense should be improved by the hiring of Miami’s D coordinator.
I might be mistaken...
… but I have no memory of Georgia playing Florida last year.
Seriously, though, the Ga/Fla game last year was kind of like the 5-0 shelling that the USA took on Sunday against Mexico… a fluke. Several sets of circumstances had to fall into place, and they all did… and some key players at the back of the defense had to have complete brain freezes at exactly the wrong times… and they did… and virtually every pass that was sent out at those times had to be exactly spot-on… and they were.
In retrospect, allowing 49 points might actually not seem that out of line for the Georgia defense last year, since we handed out 40+ point games like they were Gideon Bibles. In that one circumstance, however, it truly was an unusual scenario.
by vineyarddawg on Jul 27, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions
See, I gotta disagree here – your defence had a rough day, sure, but what turned defeat into, erm, something worse, was Stafford coming apart in the second half. Georgia’s defensive field position just stank after halftime, and it takes a really excellent D to overcome that kind of situation series after series.
Yeah but did Oklahoma play them with over 20 injuries to regular players?
We might not have won but minus the injuries it would have been a helluva of a lot closer. Plus, the same referring crew (Penn Wagers) who did the 07 game where we celebrated in the end zone in 07 did last year’s game and needless to say chose to look the other way on a ton of blatant penalties by UF, including:
1) failing to call an unsportsman like conduct play after Brandon Spikes tackled our player and then taunted him (by pounding his fist into the field) while our kid was still on the ground;
2) not calling a pass interference play when their linebacker tackled our WR which allowed UF to return a pick for a touchdown;
3) not calling a pass interference play after their WR pushed our CB down which again allowed them to score a touchdown.
As you can tell that’s 14 points that game directly off of blatant missed penalties. Another 14 came late in the game when they were rubbing it in and we had checked out for the evening; That’s 28 points. So, when the game was referred fairly and was still in contention we actually gave up 3 less points than Oklahoma’s D.
With that said, your right Oklahoma’s D did an outstanding job against UF, as I’m sure your Longhorns would have done as well. I didn’t realize that Big XII fans would be reading the message. And for the record, I’m glad you do, I didn’t realize Oklahoma State had gotten a new DC. But generally speaking, we all agree that both Texas and Oklahoma play defense. The rest of the conference really didn’t last year.
by charlottedawg on Jul 27, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions
A counterpoint on the schedule
“On paper,” much of our schedule might not look that difficult, but consider the following games after our season opener (which I do believe we’ll win… maybe):
- 9/12 – South Carolina: Georgia will be coming back on a late Saturday-night flight from a hard-fought game in what is likely to be 100+ degree heat in Oklahoma. South Carolina, on the other hand, will have already put their first game in the books 2 days prior and will be sneaking computers out of the computer labs resting comfortably watching SportsCenter by the time the Dawgs arrive back in Athens. Georgia had a similar situation (returning late at night from a long western road trip) last year, and if you recall, the game following this situation wasn’t as ideal as we’d hoped it would be, and CMR blamed it partly on fatigue.
- 9/19 – @ Arkansas: This will be Georgia’s third difficult game in a row to start the year, and they will be playing an Arkansas team that improved greatly towards the end of last year, has most of their best players back, and had a 1-AA team and a bye before they play the Dawgs.
9/26 – Arizona State: Yes, we all know that Georgia has better talent than the Balmy Beelzebubs, but Georgia will be coming off 2 long road trips in 3 weeks against top-shelf teams, and ASU, though traveling cross-country themselves, will have only played a 1-AA team and UL-Monroe, with a bye sandwiched in between just in case they break a nail.
And all of that is before we play LSU, and then @ Tennessee and @ Vanderbilt, all before our bye week.
In short, the timing of our schedule is absolutely horrible. Tennessee had a very similar problem last year (I think something crazy like 7 or 8 of the 12 teams on their schedule had a bye week before playing them), and I certainly think that helped to contribute to their problems.
I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to think that UGA has a real chance to start the season 2-3, or even 2-4, then pull it together and reel off 6 straight wins to close out the year. We all hope that’s not the case, but from a pragmatic standpoint, it’s at least a very real possibility. Heck, if the Ginger Assassin turns out to be more Ginger than assassin, we could start 0-3. (Personally, I think Joe Cox will be more DJ Shockley than JTIII, or else the coaches and players wouldn’t be sounding the notes of confidence in him that they have… but I’m just sayin’.)
by vineyarddawg on Jul 27, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
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