Kansas, Ole Miss, and South Carolina All Look to Decline in 2009
by T Kyle King on Jun 28, 2009 9:31 PM EDT
in Football
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PrintWith July almost upon us and the preview magazines hitting the newsstands, we who love college football find ourselves fully in the grip of the offseason and counting down the days until Labor Day. In anticipation of casting my preseason BlogPoll ballot, I already have identified three teams I’m buying in 2009, but there is a limit to the number of limbs out on which I am willing to go, so now it is time to offer . . .
Kansas Jayhawks: After four straight seasons of bowl-eligibility and 20 wins in the last two years, Mark Mangino’s team is starting to get the sort of reputation that yields regular top 25 rankings. The problem for K.U. is that, during their two-year run, they’ve beaten exactly one regular-season opponent with a pulse, and even that makes the generous assumption that last year’s Missouri Tigers qualified in that category. While I fully expect a 6-0 start from Kansas, the Jayhawks’ six-week stretch run will expose them (and their secondary) as nothing bearing the vaguest resemblance to a contender even in their weak division.
Ole Miss Rebels: It pains me to say so, since I have University of Mississippi alumni in my family and I pretty much root for the Rebels whenever they are playing a team from anywhere other than Athens, but I’m not buying the hype. You can’t not root for Jevan Snead and Dexter McCluster, if only because "Jevan Snead" and "Dexter McCluster" are just so darned much fun to say, but I don’t care who’s back if Michael Oher isn’t. Houston Nutt’s club finished strong in 2008 . . . just like the Georgia Bulldogs did in 2007, complete with a January bowl win over an overhyped mid-major. (All right, technically, the Texas Tech Red Raiders aren’t a mid-major, but come on . . . if Mike Leach’s squad made the jump to the W.A.C., would anyone claim it wasn’t a legitimate fit?) The Rebs will get back to a bowl game, but they won’t replicate last year’s win total and, if they make it to Atlanta in December, it’ll be for the Peach Bowl.
South Carolina Gamecocks: Since the heady 17-7 glory run of 2000 and 2001, the Palmetto State Poultry have been very nearly Chan Gailey-like in their consistency, posting records of 5-7, 5-7, 6-5, 7-5, 8-5, 6-6, and 7-6 in the last seven seasons. The East Coast U.S.C. always manages to win a few close ones and lose a few close ones, but never manages to do enough of either to rise too far above or fall too far below mediocrity. With just eleven starters returning and Stephen Garcia having yet to give any indication that his innate Steve Taneyhillness extends to actual on-field production, I see no reason to believe this is the year the Chicken Curse gets lifted.
I extend my apologies to fans of Kansas, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, but, when it comes to the Jayhawks, Rebels, and Gamecocks, I’ll believe it when I see it.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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Decline?
I can see not buying for South Carolina — I’m not expecting more than maybe a one-game improvement from 2008. Maybe. But decline?
A minute to look at the legit criticisms of South Carolina:
—Weak offensive line. Which is the same as it was last year.
—QB Questions. Also same as it was last year.
—Losses of Jared Cook and Kenny McKinley. McKinley was hurt most of the year anyway, and all but one of the remaining players with double-digit receptions (RB Mike Davis) return.
As for the returning starters, the six on defense don’t include Rodney Paulk, who started 22 games in 06 and 07 but was injured last year and a couple of players who saw action in several games but didn’t “start.”
Don’t buy us; that’s fine. (Personally, I prefer expectations to be as low as possible going into a season.) But “decline” might be a bit strong of a word.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
It seems like you're basically saying that we're going to do more of the same this year...
If so, how does more of the same = decline?
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
Stephen Garcia?
How’s that drankin’ boi-ah?
Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster, Jevan Snead, Dexter McCluster. . . . .(you’re right! that is fun! hell yeah!)
Love your stuff T Kyle. (you knew Team Speed Kills and G&A Attack were comin’ for you? Why T Kyle? Why?)
Comer4tide to Nico2.0: "How come I've never heard of any of your random songs?"
Todd to Comer: "Because if you had, he wouldn't listen to it. BOOM. Roasted."
Nico to Todd: "Shouldn't you be off voguing somewhere?"
by BixBeiderbecke on Jun 29, 2009 12:58 AM EDT reply actions
Relax, guys
Headlines are supposed to be attention-grabbing, search engine-optimizing, and short. “Decline” is briefer than “won’t get any better,” and it also rhymes with 2009.
I ran into this same problem with my now-infamous Lane Kiffin posting, when fixation on the headline obscured the substance of the posting.
To be clear, in case the posting wasn’t: I believe South Carolina will remain mired in consistent mediocrity, winning neither fewer than five nor more than seven regular-season games. I believe the Georgia-South Carolina game will be decided by no more than seven points. If the Gamecocks beat Georgia, they will lose another nailbiter somewhere else. If the Gamecocks lose to Georgia, they will win another nailbiter somewhere else. Equilibrium will be maintained, nothing more, nothing less.
Go 'Dawgs!
Fair enough.
I could quibble with some of your particular points, but looking at our schedule, it’s hard to see us doing better than 8-4 in a best case scenario.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jun 29, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I'm not bullish on Ole Miss at all
Until he proves me wrong, Houston Nutt coached teams are guaranteed to win one or two games a year they shouldn’t (Florida last year) and then lose two or three games they shouldn’t (South Carolina/Vanderbilt last year). That’s just the way his teams play. Book a 9-4/8-5 season for them and take that to the bank.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
Ole Miss is virtually guaranteed 8 wins by virtue of their pathetically easy schedule...
It’s them actually winning the West that I don’t see. They’re probably not as good as ‘Bama, and I really don’t see them being significantly better than Arkansas or Auburn, either.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jun 29, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Arkansas and Auburn?
I’d be surprised if either of them wins more than seven games, and I personally expect Auburn to come in below .500.
And I don’t think people realize how much Alabama is losing on offense — they have four returning starters. Granted, offense wasn’t the strength of last year’s team, but you have to be able to score some.
Team Speed Kills. All SEC, all the time.
Well...
Auburn was much more talented last year than their record indicates. Schizophrenic offensive coaching (see string of losses where they had early leads after grinding it and then fell apart later in the game after going to the Franklin spread) and shoddy quarterback play held them back. With improvements in these areas this year they’ll compete with Ole Miss. I’m not saying they’ll win, but they’ll be better. Arkansas will be very good offensively this year, but may have problems on defense. And it’s not like Ole Miss beat either of these two teams convincingly last year when they were both on the ropes. As far as Alabama goes, it’s quickly getting to the point where they’ll just be reloading every year no matter how many players they lose. And I’m forgetting all about LSU, who should also improve.
It’s not that I don’t think Ole Miss is very good, or even that I don’t think they’re good enough to win the West. I just don’t think it’s likely. They’ll probably drop a couple of these games along the way en route to a very good but not spectacular season.
Garnet and Black Attack: A Blog by and for Gamecocks Fans.
by Gamecock Man on Jun 30, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Its good
to see others not buying into the Ole Miss hype…lest we forget this is a team that is not even two seasons removed from going 0-8 in SEC play…
Giggity ball
It’s what prevents me from buying into Houston Nutt. By no means do I think he’s a bad coach, but coming from having several family members from Arkansas, the constant feeling was that he took you on roller coaster emotional rides. Upset a top 10 team on the road one week, then lose to Vandy or Kentucky the next week with little to no fight.
Like I said, they may prove me wrong, but until he does I will never pencil in more than 8-9 wins for a Houston Nutt coached team.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
Agreed, Agreed and Agreed
I’m not buying those 3 either. I do think that Ole Miss has the best chance of the 3 to shine though. Good experienced QBs combined with soft schedules usually net an extra few Ws.
Power Polls Vs. Predictions, and the Rebels' All-Cupcake Diet
I think when one looks at the returning rosters for LSU, Bama, and Ole Miss, as well as snapshots of last year’s performances, there are a lot of positives and at least a few question marks for all three teams coming into this year. I think one of the reasons people have the Rebels ranked so highly is because they’re looking at the schedule and making predictions. If I’m making a power poll based solely on a team’s merits, Ole Miss is not nearly as high as if I try to predict where everyone will be slotted after all12 games are played this fall.
Ole Miss gets LSU and Bama in Oxford, avoids Georgia and Florida in the East, and has no tougher a non-conference opponent than Memphis (including two D-2 schools). The toughest road games are Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and the Auburn Chiziks.
You mentioned last year’s strong finish and compared it to Georgia’s in 2007. Two things here: First, as opposed to Georgia’s very difficult 2008 schedule, the Rebels have one for 2009 that is more than managable if the returning players pick up where they left off at the end of last season. Second, Georgia was #1 to start last year, and anything short of rings and trophies was going to be considered a let down. Ole Miss will probably start in the top 10, but nobody’s really thinking National Championship just yet. While 10-3 may have been a disappointment for the Dawgs, a similar record for the Rebels – particularly if a couple of losses happen in a way that still leaves Ole Miss headed to Atlanta in early December – shouldn’t realistically leave most Rebels fans too disappointed.
P.S. I predict Dexter McCluster will have such a dominating season that the Heisman will be renamed the McCluster, and Jevan Snead will finish second only to his teammate Dexter in voting for the first ever McCluster Award at a black tie ceremony in New York. Voters are clearly bored with the Heisman at this point anyway, and giving it such a dynamic new name is just the makeover it needs.
My degree of respect for and caring about the Heisman . . .
. . . would quadruple quintuple octuple some degree of “-uple” that has not yet been invented if they renamed it the “McCluster,” for two reasons.
For one thing, John Heisman was the Steve Spurrier of his day, running up scores, making snide postgame comments, and coaching annual Georgia rivals (in his case, Auburn, Clemson, and Georgia Tech).
For another, anytime the McCluster voters got it wrong, the headlines denouncing the decision would write themselves. Also, the award could be presented in Mongolia.
Go 'Dawgs!
Oh, and South Carolina ...
Every year since Spurrier arrived in South Carolina some magazine, or some pundit, or some other such character declares that this is the year that South Carolina finally turns the corner and wins the SEC East, a BCS bowl game, 10 games, or some other milestone. And every year it doesn’t happen. Still, I know there are those saying it again this year. Just like me rushing to the post office at 4:45PM on April 15th with tax filings in hand, they will never learn.
I’m not saying it will never happen. I am saying I won’t believe it until it does, so as soon as it happens, call me. You can reach me on my affordable $99 iPhone with a long battery life, and I’ll be using it to listen to Guns N’ Roses’ Chinese Democracy II on my way to see the unveiling of the Freedom Tower in downtown Manhattan.
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