Why College Teams Should Play Tough Non-Conference Opponents
by T Kyle King on May 19, 2009 9:47 PM EDT
in Baseball
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PrintWhile I’m sure my good friends at Garnet and Black Attack will disagree with this statement, I believe we all could benefit from following the example of Clemson. More specifically, we would do well to emulate Frank Howard.
Between 1930 and 1957, the Country Gentlemen began 28 straight seasons by facing tiny Presbyterian College at Fort Hill. The Blue Hose rarely managed to score the upset and Clemson usually beat P.C. by lopsided margins. (It was a coach of the Blue Stockings who gave Memorial Stadium the nickname "Death Valley.") The problem was that these glorified early-season scrimmages did little to prepare the Tigers for the more daunting teams on their slate.
Coach Howard’s 1957 club began the campaign by throttling Presbyterian 66-0. One week later, Clemson traveled to Chapel Hill to begin A.C.C. play and suffered a 26-0 setback at North Carolina. Before the game had even ended, Coach Howard had turned to one of his assistants and remarked, "I ain’t playing P.C. no more. Those guys don’t even know they got hit last week. That game sure didn’t help on this one here."
Frank Howard dropped Presbyterian from the Tigers’ schedule and arranged for Clemson to play three straight conference games to start the 1958 season. The Country Gentlemen won all three by margins of five, five, and eight points, respectively. The Orange and Purple went on to win the A.C.C. championship, earn a bid to the Sugar Bowl, and finish ranked twelfth in the A.P. poll.
You don’t have to have been accepted to the Vulcan Science Academy to be able to figure out the cause and effect relationship at work there.
The Tigers proceeded to open each of the next five seasons by playing road games against teams from major conferences, taking on North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 1959, Wake Forest at Winston-Salem in 1960, Florida at Gainesville in 1961, Georgia Tech at Atlanta in 1962, and Oklahoma at Norman in 1963. Between 1966 and 1968, Coach Howard’s Clemson clubs played non-conference games against Alabama (thrice), Auburn (twice), Georgia (twice), Georgia Tech (thrice), and Southern California, of which eight were on the road. The Country Gentlemen went 16-2-1 in A.C.C. play in those three seasons.
The moral of the story is clear. Challenging non-conference schedules prepare a team for the rough-and-tumble free-for-all of league play. Opening the fall against serious competition provides focus to a team’s offseason and requires players to be ready to play from the first snap. This has been the unmistakable trend of the Mark Richt era at Georgia. Contrast this . . .
2001:
- opened against Arkansas State
- 8-4
- Music City Bowl
- A.P. No. 22
2004:
- opened against Georgia Southern
- 10-2
- Outback Bowl
- A.P. No. 7
2006:
- opened against Western Kentucky
- 9-4
- Chick-fil-A Bowl
- A.P. No. 23
2008:
- opened against Georgia Southern
- 10-3
- Capital One Bowl
- A.P. No. 13
. . . with this:
2002:
- opened against Clemson
- 13-1
- S.E.C. champions
- Sugar Bowl
- A.P. No. 3
2003:
- opened at Clemson
- 11-3
- S.E.C. East champions
- Capital One Bowl
- A.P. No. 7
2005:
- opened against Boise State
- 10-3
- S.E.C. champions
- Sugar Bowl
- A.P. No. 10
2007:
- opened against Oklahoma State
- 11-2
- tied for first place in S.E.C. East (lost head-to-head tiebreaker)
- Sugar Bowl
- A.P. No. 2
Given the clear lesson of those results, we should ask ourselves what we ought to expect from a baseball season that begins like this . . .
Feb. 22: No. 1 Arizona at Athens (W, 9-7)
Feb. 23: No. 1 Arizona at Athens (L, 7-1)
Feb. 24: No. 1 Arizona at Athens (L, 9-8)
Feb. 27: Atlanta Braves at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (L, 8-0)
Feb. 29: No. 12 Oregon State at Portland, Ore. (L, 6-4)
Mar. 1: No. 12 Oregon State at Portland, Ore. (W, 10-5)
Mar. 2: No. 12 Oregon State at Portland, Ore. (L, 5-4)
. . . as opposed to one that begins with a three-game set at home against unranked Youngstown State, a two-game set at home against unranked Presbyterian (yes, the same Presbyterian Frank Howard refused to play any longer), a three-game set in Tucson against unranked Arizona, a game at home against unranked Wofford, a three-game set at home against Quinnipiac, and a two-game set at home against LeMoyne?
The former season, in case the point is not clear, ended in the College World Series finals. The latter season is circling the drain even as we speak. Which would you prefer?
You get better by playing somebody, so start out by playing somebody. Here endeth the lesson.
Go ‘Dawgs!
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I thought this post was about the UL-Lafayette game
But I must admit the baseball analogy is apt. Have they announced the opening schedule for the 2010 baseball season yet? Hopefully the powers-that-be read this blog too…
And of course I’m still opposed to opening up with ULL. They’d be fine as a sandwich game between UF and Auburn or something, but let’s open with somebody legit — at least a Clemson/OSU/ASU type opponent.
Depends
It might work for Georgia (but only might, see below), but it’s not a hard and fast rule.
Florida football began 1996 with UL-Lafayette and Georgia Southern, began 2006 with Southern Miss and UCF, and began 2008 with Hawai’i and a thoroughly mediocre Miami team. Playing excellent Miami teams in 2002-03 led to back to back 8-5 seasons.
Who’s coaching and who’s playing matters more. And besides, the Davids Greene and Pollack probably had more to do with success in 2002-04 than anything in the non-conference schedule. The 2001 and 2006 seasons? Sure they featured a weak opening opponent, but they also featured freshman starters at QB for all or most of them. 2008 had more to do with a lack of healthy starters than a lack of a non-conference threat early on.
I call this one correlation, but not causation.
or as some of us like to say ...
… it applies the fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc.
Even so, I much prefer opening the season with a challenging opponent, simply because it’s more entertaining.
Maybe . . .
. . . but no Bulldog ever entered the weight room wearing a “Georgia v. Georgia Southern in Sanford Stadium on Labor Day Weekend” sweatshirt.
I guarantee you there are T-shirts with the date, the opponent, and the location of Georgia’s opening outing of 2009 in the weight room on a regular basis nowadays, though. Never underestimate the importance of focus when it comes to achieving a team objective.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on May 19, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok.
I just like spouting Latin phrases. And being contrary.
I’ll be agreeable: Audaces Fortuna iuvat.
Latin means never having to say you're sorry
I respect any comment that contains, inter alia, the judicious use of Latin.
How ‘bout them Diamond Dogs? I’m sitting down to do the postgame writeup even as we speak. . . .
Go 'Dawgs!
That much is undeniable.
There was a rumor earlier this offseason that UF was dropping Charleston Southern to add TCU at the beginning of next season (because the Frogs were at the time looking for someone, anyone to play instead of adding a I-AA school). I really wanted it to be true, but it turned out to be false, obviously. On Florida’s side that’s probably in large part due to the fact that TCU would want a return trip, and heaven forbid UF ever play a non-conference game outside the state again.
Given the disparity between the two schools . . .
. . . I’ll bet the Gators could get a two-for-one out of T.C.U.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on May 20, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Does it really matter for Florida though? Florida has so much media love and goodwill right now that no one is going to hold them to task for a week nonconference schedule. I know for the fans it’s a big deal to play outside the region, but if you don’t have to in order to win a national title, why subject the team to that? Just keep playing 10 games a year in Florida until it actually costs you something…
No, it doesn't matter,
and it may never matter. This is the classic argument of the SEC. “We play so many tough in-conference opponents, we don’t need to schedule tough out-of-conference opponents.” To some regard, of course, there is truth to this. However, the problem is that it can cost you when it counts most (see: Ohio State in BCS Championship games). In the event that the team is overrated and is embarrassed on national television, you will have no choice but to start scheduling tougher OOC opponents in order to regain any sort of credibility as to being a contender (see: Ohio State’s home and home games with: USC 2008-2009, Miami (Florida) 2010-2011, & Cal 2012-2013).
This leaves us with the questison that you posed, albeit a bit reworded. Can you win a national championship without tough OOC scheduling? Yes. Is it a guarantee? No. Is there a risk that you may screw the pooch in front of the entire nation and garner a reputation of being overrated? Yes. The ultimate question, however, is whether it is worth the risk. According to a growing number of athletic directors (Damon included), the answer is no. Schedule tough OOC opponents, travel outside the comfort zone, increase national recruiting, and eventually, the title will come.
by hailtogeorgia on May 20, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
The experiences of 2004 and 2005 are going to stay with folks for a long time.
Auburn, despite playing the most daunting conference slate of the three contenders, also faced the weakest non-conference schedule, and the Plainsmen were left out of the mix in 2004. In 2005, the two most high-profile intersectional matchups were Ohio State-Texas and Notre Dame-Southern California. The winners of those games made it to the national title game. The losers of those games were given credit for “quality losses” and met in the Fiesta Bowl.
This is why any rule that lets an undefeated Hawaii team into the Sugar Bowl despite its Division I-AA strength of schedule (that is no exaggeration) is a bad rule. Reward tough scheduling and serious teams will schedule tougher.
Go 'Dawgs!
I don't know if you proved your point completely
If you look at the games Kyle posted they are all lower division schools except (maybe Ark State- Sunbelt?). Florida’s openers were all upper division teams. Granted ULL isn’t that good, but at least they and So Miss and Hawaii are in the same division. Also, you added “a thoroughly mediocre Miami team” to that, but the way I understand Kyle’s analogy is that you don’t have to play a top 5 team, but rather something more that a high school squad, i.e. opening with Purdue, NC State or even TA&M is better than slumming with Western Carolina, el Cid or Youngstown St.
I like the argument,
but I’m not sure how much I agree with it. Yes, it works for Georgia, but I do think outside factors played a major role. Of course, I am all for having something to focus on over the summer. However, I don’t think starting our schedule with Oklahoma St. last year would’ve changed much. Kyle, I usually agree with you, I just think that you’re putting a little too much weight on the correlation. Two points:
1. Just to pick out a couple of examples, Auburn began 2002 and 2003 with USC and finished around 8-5 or 9-4 both years. They began 2004 with Western Kentucky and went 13-0. Tennessee began 2006 and 2007 with Cal. 2006 they finished 9-4, 2007 they finished 10-3 and won the SEC East by head-to-head tiebreaker (and by crazy luck against South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky). They began 2008 with UCLA, and we all know how that turned out for Phil & Co.
2. As far as the baseball team goes, I attribute it much more to youth. Yes, last year began with a much tougher opponent, but we also had much more experience. We’re a young team. To be honest, I was pretty shocked they were playing as well as they were, and I expected the freshmen to hit a wall. I like starting out against a strong opponent, but it’s an equally strong argument (in my opinion) when you have a few true freshmen starters, to get a few patty-cake games to get some confidence in the guys. Too many times, a freshman has been thrown into the fire against tough competition, only to be burned and have his head thrown completely out of whack. He gets down on himself, and sometimes never recovers. Out of curiosity, when is the final schedule for baseball set? Did we know Arizona was going to be unranked when we scheduled the games?
Auburn's home and away with USC
They played in LA in 2002 and in Auburn in 2003. I remember the 2003 game fondly because Auburn was getting all kinds of hype based on their strong 2002 finish (boy, this story sounds familiar) and I even believe one of the preseason magazines pegged them #1. USC rolled into Jordan-Hare and shut out Auburn. That was Leinart’s first start at USC and he threw a touchdown with his first collegiate pass.
http://hobnailboot.wordpress.com/
I hate Auburn
By which I mean, I hate Auburn.
Go 'Dawgs!
by T Kyle King on May 20, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
If Auburn had it to do again, do you think they would still open with Western Kentucky?
The contrary example of Auburn going 13-0 cuts both ways. It certainly shows that a team can have a great year even when it starts with a patsy opponent. But it’s also clear that the weak schedule cost Auburn a shot at the BCS title game. The Flying Tiger Eagles were punished for the weak schedule every bit as much as they were rewarded for it.
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