Let's re-examine this thing for a minute

by vineyarddawg on Nov 9, 2009 11:38 AM EST Comment 11 comments

I figure it's now time for a post along the lines of, "we looked good beating a 1-AA team last week, so let's revive some hope for the season."

Not really, of course, but if you look at Georgia's position in the newly-mediocre SEC standings (and potential bowl destinations)... it's really not that bad unless we keep losing.

Georgia's SEC record is currently 3-3, which is good for sole possession of second in the SEC east. (Tennessee also has 3 losses, but only 2 wins thus far.) That speaks to how weak the SEC East is this year, obviously, but even if we were in the SEC West, we'd be tied for 3rd place with... you got it, Auburn.

So, if Georgia manages to pull it together and somehow beat Auburn and Kentucky, we'd be 7-4 and have a final record of 5-3 in the conference. Nothing any of us are going to be writing home about, but not shameful, given where we are now. If we lose to Tech, as I think we will, that puts us at 7-5. Florida and Alabama will both go to the BCS, which leaves a 2-or-3-loss LSU team for the Capital One bowl and a huddled mass of 7-5 teams for the remainder of the top-tier SEC bowl choices. (Auburn would be 7-5 if they lose to Georgia and Alabama, S. Carolina will finish no better than 7-5 in a best-case scenario, and neither will Kentucky or Ole Miss. Tennessee just might, but they're the only ones.)

So, Capital One goes to LSU, and the Outback selects the next East team. They'd probably take Tennessee, since the Vol fans would be more likely to travel in greater numbers to Tampa to play some ~~sucky~~ middle-of-the-pack Big 10+1 team than Georgia fans this year. The Cotton Bowl takes a West team... Auburn or Ole Miss... and that leaves the Peach-Fil-A Bowl. A 7-5 or 8-4 (if we manage to beat Tech) Georgia team would be attractive to the Atlanta Bowl, mostly because they know they'd be virtually guaranteed a sellout. And if you told me at the beginning of the year we'd end up second in the East with an 8-4 record and a Peach-Fil-A Bowl birth... I would have taken it.

Nobody would be happy about it, and I imagine there would be quite a bit of hand-wringing about whether or not this would save Willie Two Thumbs' job (I don't think it would), but at this point, it's our best-case scenario.

What about a worst-case scenario, you say? No thanks... I'll stick with my very-guarded optimism until the result of the Auburn game is known.

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I'd be more than happy

For the CFA Bowl as well. Our last one turned out fairly well.

Just remember how much you read into the game against Vanderbilt, and how that affected your outlook for the Florida game. Our win over Vandy meant nothing, so our win over Tenn Tech means less than nothing. I say we’re lucky to go 1-2 from this point out.

Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.

by wwcmrd? on Nov 9, 2009 2:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

How much I read into game against Vanderbilt?

I don’t recall stating that our performance when playing Vanderbilt was a portend of a victory in Jacksonville, but I do remember penning a post in which I surmised that Georgia was perched on a precipice, and that we could sail off of it with a crushing defeat to the Gators. I don’t see how that is projecting the Vanderbilt victory forward.

(For the record, I also predicted a Georgia win against Florida, but that had absolutely nothing to do with our performance in Nashville. Also, for the record, I’m choosing to selectively ignore my precipice prediction for about 11.5 more months. I think the ship might yet be righted, but it will take coaching changes combined with a victory in at least 2 of the next 3 outings against the Saurians.)

Georgia has looked far worse than their talent level would otherwise suggest all year long. They did manage to put it all together against a mediocre 1-AA team, which means nothing in and of itself. If that performance can give them some confidence heading into the Auburn game, however, it might not be as meaningless as you think. The key still lies in us giving up less than 30 points. If we can’t do that, nothing else really matters.

by vineyarddawg on Nov 9, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At this point I'm inclined to believe

. . . that if Furman can put up 31 on Auburn, giving up 30 or more might not be such an issue for us. Oh, the days when we were playing barn-burners against South Carolina and Arkansas . . . might that magic return? One can only hope.

I was responding to your post, but I was using “you” in a more general sense to refer to the reader(s). “Confidence” didn’t seem to help us against Florida, but Auburn is definitely not Florida. So who knows? Personally, I believe the “key” is Cox extending his interception-free streak to two whole games.

Leaving insightful football commentary and analysis to other people since 2006.

by wwcmrd? on Nov 9, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No question I would have taken 8-4 before the season started as

my prediction was 6-6. I think we have a legitimate shot at 7-5 now but probably a better shot at 6-6 than 8-4. As far as the Peach or whatever the Atlanta bowl is, I’d rather go OUTSIDE the state of Georgia and the state of Florida, even for less money. A trip to Atlanta__unlike a tie in football__IS kissing your sister. Ugh!

by Jujdog on Nov 9, 2009 3:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Outback

I’d rather have UGA in the Outback than UT, because UGA doesn’t lose to Big 10 teams.

As bad as our conference is this season, I’d still like the league to fare well during bowl season.

by skigator93 on Nov 9, 2009 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Kind words

And true. UGA’s 8-2 all time against Big Ten teams, with both of those losses coming before I was born (which was in 1966), and one against Chicago. (1983 Sugar Bowl loss to independent Penn State doesn’t count.)

by NCT on Nov 9, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't know the exact record....

but I did know that yall have fared better against them than we have. The ole Zooker assured us of that.

by skigator93 on Nov 9, 2009 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Zook just could not seem to get anything done again Big Ten schools, at least that is the way it seems to me anyway.

by Sparkey on Nov 10, 2009 2:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

skigator

i think its pretty good odds that whomever UF plays in a bowl – they will get the full Tebow.

by tankertoad on Nov 9, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody said anything . . .

. . . about the full Tebow!

Go 'Dawgs!

by T Kyle King on Nov 9, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think . . .

that of all the derisive things I’ve called SEC coaches on this blog, such asThe Armani Bear, General Peachfuzz, Jr., etc., Willie Two Thumbs may be my favorite. There’s just something about the image of Willie Martinez staring at a camera lens and making like Arthur Fonzerelli [insert your own “jumping the shark” joke here] that just encapsulates the Georgia defense from 2006 forward.

Fair warning: a Willie-centric post is coming this evening. You may want to put some bubble wrap around your computer and stash the sharp objects around your home.

by MaconDawg on Nov 10, 2009 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs